Source: Financial community
With the global energy transformation and upgrading and the continuous improvement of carbon emission requirements, the high prosperity of the new energy automobile industry continues. Batteries as one of the most important parts of electric vehicles, the development of electric vehicles is in full swing, but also continue to promote the rapid growth of demand for power lithium batteries, further stimulate the market demand for lithium battery related industrial chains.
At the 8th China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum held recently, representatives from relevant government departments, electric vehicle industry institutions and leading enterprises gathered at the forum to discuss the development direction of the upstream and downstream of China's new energy automobile industry from different dimensions.
Through the attention to the hot spots of this automobile conference, the power equipment and new energy team of Kaiyuan Securities released an in-depth report on the industry "The future trend of lithium batteries from a hundred people will see - change is accelerating", we believe that under the double blessing of the top-level system and technological innovation, the tram track will maintain a high prosperity, and the transformation of the lithium battery industry chain will continue to accelerate.
The rise of upstream raw materials has led to diversification and cost reduction, and promoted the acceleration of market-oriented development
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1, lithium resources supply and demand balance after 2-3 years may return to normal, technological progress led to cost reduction
For the new energy automobile industry, to improve the supply level of battery materials, it is necessary to focus on resource mining and smelting, battery technology research and development innovation and recycling system construction. Lithium, nickel and other raw materials trading market should be managed, international logistics channels should be smoothed, and the global supply of power battery materials should be guaranteed.
(1) The balance of supply and demand of lithium resources is expected to return to normal after 2-3 years, and Yichun Minerals can end the shortage of lithium resources
The balance between supply and demand of lithium resources is likely to return to normal after 2-3 years. Due to the growth of demand for new energy vehicles, battery prices will rise, and then to the field of materials, there will be a greater amplification effect, the current round of price increases and 2016-2018 lithium resources rose for the same reasons.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the demand amplification brought about by panic inventory reserves is temporary, and with the improvement of lithium carbonate supply capacity, it will gradually return to the basic demand side. According to Ouyang Minggao's forecast, it is expected that a complete balance between supply and demand may be restored in two or three years.
The world's lithium capital, Yichun, will end the shortage of lithium resources. According to the forecast of Guoxuan Hi-Tech Li Zhen, it is expected that China's lithium resource demand will be 600,000 tons in 2025. From 2021 to 2025, with the rapid growth of the Sichuan Yichun lithium mica project, the improvement of lithium extraction technology in Qinghai brine, the mining of spodumene resources in Sichuan, and the progress of battery recycling technology, the demand for imported lithium resources will be greatly reduced in the next five years. Among them, it is expected to form 500,000 tons of lithium resources development in Yichun in 2025, completely ending the shortage of lithium resources in China.
(2) Battery recycling gradually replaces the original resource demand
It is expected that after 2030, the recycling of battery materials will form a scale, and the supply of original mineral resources and recycled resources will reach a considerable level around 2050; in the longer term, recycled resources will gradually completely replace the original resource demand. In 2040, the total supply of materials for recycled batteries will be balanced with the total demand for raw materials for manufactured batteries.
2. Vehicle enterprises focus on the supply of raw materials and the balance between supply and demand
Because lithium iron phosphate does not contain rare metals, it is more suitable for the tolerance of social resources. The sharp rise in raw material prices is a challenge that the industry needs to overcome. Regulate the control of the price of raw material resources upstream of electric vehicles to prevent upstream resources from being excessively monopolized.
Sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, but there was a serious imbalance between supply and demand of upstream raw materials. Vehicle companies such as BYD suggested that with reference to the grain reserve adjustment mechanism of agriculture, study the establishment of a point pool to adjust the balance between supply and demand and enhance the predictability of the price of points.
We believe that the rising cost is conducive to the breakthrough of battery technology and material technology, the current development of the lithium battery industry due to the continuous increase in the price of resources and entered a new round of reshuffle, weak technical capabilities, poor cost control of enterprises will be eliminated.
The downstream vehicle enterprises in the industrial chain are developing rapidly, and the power technology path is diversified
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1. The development of the new energy vehicle industry has maintained a high growth rate, and opportunities and risks coexist
Future opportunities and risks coexist in the new energy vehicle industry. At present, the industry has two important opportunities, (1) autonomous driving, automatic driving is becoming the focus of competition for smart cars, the investment of all parties, the support of government policies and the competition of related enterprises will accelerate the arrival of the era of automatic driving. (2) Vehicle-road coordination, the integrated development of "vehicle-road cloud map" is the key path for China's automobile industry to change lanes and overtake.
2. There are breakthroughs in the development of all head vehicle companies
BYD's top R&D capabilities and sales champion status highlight the leading position. In 2021, with subversive technologies such as blade battery DM-i super hybrid and E platform 3.0, BYD insisted on walking on two legs of pure electric and plug-in hybrid, ushering in the rapid development of technology, products and markets. The development of upstart Xiaopeng Automobile exceeded expectations, and the investment in research and development continued to increase. 2021 is a year of rapid development of Xiaopeng, and in 2021, Xiaopeng Automobile delivered 98,000 smart cars throughout the year, winning the first place in the new car-making forces. The proportion of R&D personnel of Xiaopeng Automobile has exceeded 40%, and the cumulative R&D investment has exceeded 9 billion yuan, and the R&D capabilities and new product launches are worth looking forward to. Ideal firmly adheres to the national pure electric drive technology strategy - using a range-extending scheme to strive for emission reduction and carbon reduction. Changan Automobile created the third entrepreneurship - innovation and entrepreneurship plan, which has been iterated to 5.0 so far, and continues to promote the "Shangri-La" plan, and the results have been realized. Scene-oriented, Beiqi Foton focuses on product innovation. At present, Beiqi Foton's heavy transportation fields such as urban logistics, terminal distribution, ports, urban construction, mines, and long-distance transportation are all promoting zero-carbon commercial vehicles and full coverage of fuel cells.
3, new energy vehicles intelligent speed up, car companies have increased the size
Xiaopeng intelligent driving shows its might, and in 2022, it plans to launch XPILOT3.5 to open the second half of assisted driving. The user penetration rate of the intelligent driving assistance system XPILOT3.0 has reached a staggering 96.2%, and the NGP mileage penetration rate has reached 62%, and it is expected that the future mileage penetration rate can reach more than 90%. Based on XPILOT3.0, Xiaopeng plans to launch XPILOT3.5 from high-speed to urban scenes in 2022, opening the second half for intelligent assisted driving.
XPILOT3.0 system user penetration rate reached a staggering 96.2%
Source: 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100
GAC Aean ICV continues to invest, and the "Xingling" electronic and electrical architecture has become the company's intelligent signboard. GAC Aeon's L2+ (Automatic Driver Assistance Function) has a loading rate of up to 50%. In terms of ICV technology innovation, GAC Aean will rely on the "Xingling Electronic and Electrical Architecture" to comprehensively enhance the scientific and technological innovation strength of ICV and create an all-weather intelligent driving perception program.
The new technology of the battery industry is gradually maturing
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1, battery material new technology: to create a new research path
Lithium-ion batteries with liquid electrolytes, which are widely used today, are at risk of thermal runaway. Li Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, proposed at the meeting of 100 electric vehicles that replaced the easy-to-burn liquid electrolyte with a solid electrolyte that is not easy to burn, and the resulting all-solid-state battery has higher safety and theoretically also has high energy density and power density.
Liquid electrolyte lithium-ion batteries are at risk of thermal runaway
Source: 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100
Oxide electrolytes are expected to become an important choice for high-performance batteries
Source: 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100
High specific energy is the general direction of future development. Future batteries will develop towards higher specific energy, while the entire cell from liquid to safer mixed solid-liquid and all-solid-state batteries development, so higher specific energy of high nickel and lithium-rich manganese-based cathode will become a major development direction to meet the mileage of 1000km passenger car requirements and electric aircraft requirements; in addition, based on modified lithium manganese, lithium iron phosphate, nickel manganese spinel, with high capacity anode materials matched, forming a solution for 600 km pure electric vehicle endurance.
Lithium battery technology without anode metal is expected to further increase energy density
Source: 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100
2, battery recycling technology: battery recycling to promote the realization of the "double carbon" goal
Low-carbon or even zero-carbon factories have gradually become the standard, which requires the use of a large number of recycled materials, improved production efficiency, the use of clean energy, etc. The high standardization of cylindrical cells and the symmetry of the form make it more advantageous to use both the ladder and the battery recycling.
It is expected that the recovery of battery materials will form a scale after 2030; around 2050, the supply of original mineral resources and recycled resources will reach a considerable level. In the longer term, recycled resources will gradually and completely replace the original resource requirements. Due to the rising value of materials, the recycling industry has ushered in opportunities. The energy consumption emissions of battery material production and recycling are large, and it is necessary to pay attention to the energy saving and emission reduction of battery recycling, and vigorously carry out scientific and technological research on battery recycling and regeneration.
Batteries have high recycling value, and decommissioned batteries can still be recycled and upgraded before being put into use. Even when the battery is scrapped, the lithium, cobalt and nickel resources in it can be recycled.
The recycling of metals in cathode materials and the recycling of aluminum and copper in batteries are not only critical to supply chain security, but also of great significance to achieving carbon emission targets. Because many supply links have additional processes that will cause more carbon emissions, and electrolytic aluminum actually has carbon emissions in the process, if the recycling of aluminum can be effectively reduced.
At present, there are three main battery recovery methods: physical recovery, fire recovery, and wet recovery. (1) Physical recovery can reduce the carbon emissions of the entire battery production chain through recycling; (2) the amount of carbon reduction in the fire recovery method is small, and the energy consumption is relatively large; (3) the energy consumption of wet recovery will be reduced, but there are problems such as liquid solvent pollutant emissions.
The use of green electricity is a fundamental way for battery production and recycling carbon emissions to be further reduced significantly. Therefore, the battery industry should be concentrated in green power areas, such as the west.
3. The battery system structure is innovative, and the new technology is gradually maturing
Advanced batteries are the key supporting technologies for the development of the mainland's dual-carbon strategy and the electric China strategy, and have very important applications in production, life and national security, in these application areas, high-energy density batteries, high-power density batteries, high-safety, long-life batteries are very critical advanced technologies. Nowadays, the power battery market is a situation in which square shell (blade), soft package and cylindrical three forms are divided into three worlds.
(1) The industry is turning to battery system structure innovation
In 2021, the transition of China's new energy automobile industry from the growth period to the rapid growth period has been realized. China's new energy vehicles have gone through the process from the cultivation demonstration period to the commercial growth period, and have now entered a period of rapid growth of scale industrialization. The development of new energy vehicles has led to the full start of the new energy revolution, and 2021 is considered to be the first year of the electrochemical energy storage market. The popularity of new energy vehicles will form a strong coupling synergy with them, and realize the "transformation from a fuel-intensive consumable energy system to a material-intensive circular energy system".
China's new energy automobile industry has entered a period of rapid growth
Source: 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100
As the global electric vehicle enters a stage of rapid development, the battery industry has also ushered in rapid development, and new material systems are also under development. According to the timeline, the development trend of the future battery material system is mainly as follows: (1) liquid system trend; (2) liquid to solid transition; (3) all solid state.
(2) Lithium metal batteries will be the future
Lithium metal batteries may be one of the future development directions. Especially in some new, more future-oriented application scenarios , such as electric heavy trucks and electric aircraft capable of long-distance intercontinental voyages , for these applications, this generation of power batteries is far from satisfying in terms of performance. To surpass lithium-ion batteries, a disruptive innovation in electrochemical systems is needed.
High energy density is an innate advantage of the anode of lithium metal. At present, there are about 8 companies engaged in the development of lithium metal batteries in the world, and everyone has chosen different technical paths and are in different research and development progress. SES made an important technical route adjustment in 2015, from an all-solid-state lithium metal battery to the current hybrid lithium metal battery route. High energy density is the innate advantage of lithium metal anode, the current research and development stage there are still some problems have not been solved, what needs to be achieved is to balance the performance, more secure high energy density lithium metal batteries and higher manufacturability.
86% of customers already require battery packs to be free of thermal diffusion
Source: 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100
The Ningde era leads the trend of heatless diffusion technology. According to Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, CATL has been committed to the safe design of high specific energy systems, and after the mass production of heatless diffusion technology of 8 series products in 2020, the heat-free diffusion technology with higher specific energy of 1000km is expected to achieve mass production in 2023.
4. Upgrade the power exchange technology and improve the level of industrial development
In order to reduce consumers' cost anxiety, charging anxiety and residual value anxiety, and solve the application needs of multiple scenarios, CATL launched the EVOGO combination power exchange overall solution. For end users: the separation of vehicle and electricity can greatly reduce the cost of first purchase of electric vehicles, and the battery pack can be selected according to the actual travel needs to be more economical. For car companies: the model can be adapted to the standard battery pack without independent investment and replacement of power stations, and the power exchange network can be shared. For power exchange operators: the power station can be compatible with different levels and different brands of models, and the economy is more secure. For social resources: The sharing of infrastructure avoids the duplication of social resources, such as land, electricity, etc. to avoid the problem of insufficient utilization.
Quick change stations that match chocolate changer blocks have advantages. (1) The area is small, only need about three parking spaces. (2) The battery circulation speed is fast, the replacement of a single block is about 1 minute, and the speed can be comparable to refueling. (3) The capacity of the substation is large, and a single standard station can store 48 power exchange blocks, and the user does not need to wait for the power block to charge for a long time. In addition, there are different versions of the substation that can be adapted to the climatic environment of different regions.
The combination of catheter era power exchange solution solves the user's charging anxiety
Source: 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100
The oil and electricity economy of heavy truck power exchange is more prominent. The current main body of the power exchange mode is a heavy truck, and the 49-ton heavy truck can only be replaced. Compared with fuel heavy trucks, the comprehensive oil and electricity economy is more than 15%, especially in the case of the current oil price is at a relatively high level, the oil and electricity economy of power exchange is more prominent.
The operation mode of the trinity of power exchange heavy truck + battery bank + substation of power station realizes the substantial saving of the one-time purchase cost of the logistics cargo owner and the shared circulation of the battery through the sales and operation of the unpowered body and the battery separation.
The top-level system and technological innovation are double-blessed, and the prosperity of the tram track may reach a new high
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The rise in the price of lithium resources caused by the contradiction between supply and demand of upstream lithium resources has forced the long-term development of China's new energy vehicle industry. On the one hand, the soaring price of upstream lithium resources eliminates enterprises with backward technology and poor cost control capabilities, on the other hand, it makes the government and industry-related enterprises more deeply aware of the risks of the new energy vehicle industry, and it is necessary to ensure the safety of upstream resource supply and ensure the standardized and orderly development of the industry. To this end, we should do: first, to strengthen the construction of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other resource security systems, and resolutely avoid being necked by cobalt and nickel resource cards in the era of electric vehicles; second, accelerate the development of new battery technologies such as sodium ions, cobalt-free, solid-state batteries, fuel cells and so on; third, develop battery recycling technology to supplement and gradually replace the demand for upstream raw materials.
The quality and quantity of the new energy vehicle industry have increased, midstream battery manufacturers have focused on battery technology improvement, downstream car companies have increased sales, and core technologies have achieved breakthroughs. CATL continues to lead the power battery industry, continues to invest in efficient group technology and heatless diffusion technology, solves the core pain points of users, and helps the penetration rate of new energy vehicles to further improve. BYD, Xiaopeng Automobile, Changan Automobile, Beiqi Foton and other car companies achieved new high sales, and focused on product innovation to serve the diversified needs of customers. Xiaopeng Automobile and GAC Aeon continue to increase the combination of new energy and assisted driving to realize the intelligence of new energy vehicles and meet the needs of high-end customers.
The new technology of battery materials has blossomed in an all-round way, and electrolytes, cathode materials, and anode materials have opened up space for innovation and development. Solid electrolyte is the ultimate solution, solid electrolyte research path is numerous, sulfide electrolyte, composite electrolyte and other paths have potential; cathode materials, anode materials focus on further improving energy density. Large cylindrical batteries may be the optimal solution for high-end new energy vehicles in the future. The large cylindrical battery combines energy density and safety, has a high degree of consistency, and is well matched with high-voltage fast charging technology. A number of large new energy vehicle companies are preparing to use large cylindrical batteries in mid-to-high-end models.
Battery recycling technology and power exchange technology have a wide space for growth, and the potential market is large. Battery recycling technology on the one hand to help achieve the "double carbon" goal, on the other hand to ensure the safety of upstream resource supply, has significant strategic significance.
The prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry may reach a new high, and it is recommended to consider investment opportunities from the perspective of industry barriers and concentration, the growth rate of the company's main business, and the penetration rate of the company's new technologies. (1) Considering the industry barriers and concentration, NINGDE Times and BYD are the leading enterprises in the global power battery, and the development momentum remains strong; Putailai is the leader of the artificial graphite anode and the third-party coating industry, and the graphitization self-sufficiency rate is the highest in the industry; Enjie shares are the wet separator leaders and are continuing to expand the production capacity of wet lithium battery separators. (2) Considering the growth rate of the company's main business, Penghui Energy Energy Storage business has grown rapidly, and the company's business will usher in further growth under the background of overseas home storage and domestic large storage growth; GCL Energy's power exchange business is a major highlight, and the company's power exchange business has advantages in cost and automated operation. (3) Considering the penetration rate of the company's new technology, the performance indicators of Ni98, the ultra-high nickel products of Dangsheng Technology, have been highly recognized by overseas customers, and the solid-state lithium battery technology has completed product development; the production capacity of Jinbei Electric Vehicle Flat Line has accelerated the expansion, and the technology research and development is leading in the industry.
Profit Forecast and Valuation Table of Beneficiary Companies in the New Energy Vehicle Industry (Stock Price Ends 2022/4/15 Close)
Source: Wind, Open Source Securities Research Institute
Note: The profit forecast of the target* company is based on the Wind consensus forecast
Risk warning: policy risk; upstream industry chain risk; downstream customer sales risk.