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It is both a game in the pure electric track and a scuffle in the hybrid track
Written by Chen Dengxin
Editor/Meng Huiyuan
Honda, Japan's second-largest car company, still can't sit still.
Recently, according to a number of mainstream media reports, Honda announced plans to invest 8 trillion yen in research and development in the next 10 years, of which 5 trillion yen will be invested in the field of electrification and software technology, and by 2030, 30 new energy models will be launched globally, with an annual output of more than 2 million vehicles.
This means that Honda is determined to fully embrace new energy.
As a veteran player of new energy vehicles, why does Honda get up early and catch a late set? Eager to close the gap, what other cards are there to play? In the face of BYD's constant clamor for hybrids, where to go?
"Point wrong" technology tree, first to change and then to start
Honda was once a new energy trendsetter.
In the 1990s, new energy vehicles powered by lead-acid batteries have emerged, and Japanese car companies have also smelled a hint of crisis and explored the next ecological niche of the industry in advance.
As a result, the hybrid technology with the underlying logic of "cutting peaks and filling valleys" has become the keyword of Japanese car companies.
However, the specific playing style is different: Toyota's playing style is mainly engine driven and motor is supplemented, while Honda's playing style is mainly motor driven and engine is supplemented.
Obviously, Honda's playing style is more in line with the new energy that is currently sweeping the world.
Although the game was earlier, Honda did not seize the opportunity to the track, but instead promoted the pure electricity Tesla step by step to become bigger, during this period, Honda did not sit still, launched the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Clarity, trying to open up another path for new energy, so as to compete with Tesla.
Unfortunately, The Honda Abacus failed.
The reason for this has a lot to do with the environment in which Honda is located.
Yusuke Hasegawa, deputy general manager of Honda Technology (China), said in an interview with the media: "Oil and electricity have always been relatively scarce resources in Japan, why we chose to develop hybrid technology, because oil resources can rely on imports or marine exploitation, we only need to maximize the value of limited resources as much as possible." ”
After that, the distraction of hydrogen fuel cells and the hasty "oil to electricity" made Honda fall behind in this century-old automobile change.
According to honda china's official website data, Honda's cumulative sales of terminal vehicles in China in 2021 will be 1561540 units, down 4% year-on-year.
According to the retail data of the Association of Automobile Associations, the domestic narrow passenger car sales in 2021 were 20.146 million units, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year, of which the volume of BYD, which focuses on new energy, has approached Dongfeng Honda and Guangqi Honda.
If we talk about new energy vehicles alone, the gap is even more obvious.
For example, Tesla sold 320743 vehicles in China, an increase of 133.3% year-on-year; Xiaopeng Motors sold 98,155 units, an increase of 275.2% year-on-year; Weilai sold 91,429 vehicles, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year; Ideal sold 90,491 vehicles, an increase of 177.4% year-on-year.
In short, the veteran honda lacks the right to speak in new energy.
In this context, Honda is eager to overtake in curves, so it plans to spend 5 trillion yen, equivalent to 2487.5 yuan, within 10 years, thereby shortening the gap with the new car-making forces.
According to data from Flush, Honda's operating income in 2021 was 13.17 trillion yen, down 11.79% year-on-year; net profit was 657.425 billion yen, an increase of 44.25% year-on-year; and net cash flow from operating activities was 1.07 trillion yen, an increase of 9.25% year-on-year.
Honda is going downhill
This means that Honda has assumed the posture of All IN New Energy.
An industry insider told Zinc Scale: "Honda's new energy ambitions are unquestionable, but unlike GM, Ford, Volkswagen and other pure electricity routes, Honda still insists on taking the diversified route, hybrid, pure electricity and hydrogen energy go hand in hand, and it may be difficult to cover all aspects under the diversion of funds." ”
Aligning with the new forces of car-making can erase the disadvantages of latecomers?
In addition to the increase in funds, Honda is also trying to make up for shortcomings and is eager to reshape the competitiveness of new energy vehicles.
First, adjust the organizational structure.
According to the "Wall Street Insights", Honda CEO Mibu Toshihiro proposed a bold idea to separate "electric products and services, batteries, energy, mobile power packs, hydrogen fuel" from the existing organizational structure divided by motorcycles, automobiles, and power products, as well as the "software and networking areas" associated with this, and merge them into one to form a new "Business Development Headquarters".
In other words, Honda's new energy has a nerve center, which can get rid of the constraints from inherent interests, so that there is more room for growth.
Second, establish an independent brand.
Honda launched the new energy brand e:NP, Chinese named Ji Pan, and strives to align itself with the new forces of car manufacturing.
There is no historical burden of new car-making forces, a hand is an exclusive R & D platform, while traditional car companies are not, most of them are fuel vehicles and electric vehicles to share R & D platforms, the start is lagging behind, for this honda launched e: N Architecture F pure electric architecture, can meet the independent design needs of new energy vehicles.
Image source Honda China official website
In addition, the new car-making forces adopt a direct operation model, more rooted in the city's business circles, the experience is more convenient, the transportation cost is low; while the traditional car companies favor the dealer model, more scattered in the corners of the city, the experience is inconvenient, the transportation cost is relatively high, and the more critical thing is that new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles are mixed and sold, and there is a problem of internal competition.
Therefore, the establishment of an independent brand to take the direct sales route can overcome this pain point.
Again, choose Alliance.
Due to the lack of pure electricity, Honda is difficult to compete with the new car-making forces on its own, and its solution idea is to hold together with GM and Sony to heat up and take what it needs.
From Honda's point of view, cooperation with GM can purchase its mature Aoteneng batteries, thereby reducing production costs, and the two sides will jointly develop new energy vehicles with a price of less than $30,000 to try to differentiate themselves in the sinking market in the United States; while cooperating with Sony, it is its advantages in the entertainment field that will give Honda's new energy additional value-added services.
Still, honda has to hit a big question mark as usual.
A private equity person told Zinc Scale: "Honda's thinking of practicing internal skills, learning from opponents and finding allies is no problem, but it is only standard, and over-matching can overtake in curves, which needs to seize the high ground of technological innovation, otherwise it cannot make up for the disadvantage of latecomers." ”
BYD hybrid, eroding Honda's basic disc
The results of the Honda Raiders pure electricity are unknown, but the existing hybrids face severe challenges that are visible to the naked eye.
For a long time, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese car companies dominated the Chinese hybrid market, and domestic hybrids have been marginalized until the expiration of Paize's hybrid patents in 2019, when bydd, BYD, Great Wall, Geely, Chery and other local brands have increased their weight, and the market has ushered in a pattern of a hundred flowers.
Among them, BYD can be described as a representative of the rise of domestic hybrids.
According to the analysis of "Che Jujun", BYD's DM-i hybrid system is almost the same as Honda's i-MMD hybrid working principle, which is mainly driven by series generators at low and medium speeds, and driven in parallel by engines and motors at high speeds, but BYD's cost control is better, and the interactive entry price of A-class cars is 111,800 yuan.
Then superimposed BYD's deeper foundation in the power battery, thus staging a corner overtaking.
According to Honda China data, in the first quarter of 2022, Honda's cumulative sales of terminal vehicles in China were 353786 units, down 9.3% year-on-year; of which the cumulative sales of terminals equipped with hybrid models were 54,034 units.
Correspondingly, BYD's terminal sales of hybrid models in March 2022 totaled 50,674 units, and the cumulative terminal sales in the first quarter were 141514 units.
BYD hybrid sales have surpassed Honda
In other words, BYD's one-month hybrid sales are equivalent to the sum of one quarter of North and South Honda.
What is even more ominous is that the growth momentum of BYD hybrid is far from comparable to Honda, taking Gaga Motor Honda as an example, its hybrid model cumulative sales in March were 13149 units, an increase of 68.3% year-on-year, while by-one HYBRID's year-on-year growth rate was 615.23%.
This means that Honda's base plate is being eroded.
All in all, Honda, which once oscillated between new energy and fuel vehicles, now needs to play with "Teslas" on the pure electric track, and on the other hand, it needs to fight with local brands such as BYD on the hybrid track.
It is not known whose hand died, and the only thing that is certain is that Honda does not want to repeat Nokia's mistakes.
END
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