For a long time, the Internet had such a paragraph:
At the beginning of the reform, he first crossed the river by feeling the stones
The reform that followed was to cross the river by feeling the bear
Big hair, show
How effective is economic shock therapy,
How big are the after-effects of the past in total denial,
How powerful are the oligarchs after direct capitalization,
How miserable the people after the total collapse!
Ermao, show
How deep can foreign capital non-governmental organizations penetrate
How quickly a short period of American-style democracy can collapse
The problem of ethnic minority areas cannot be solved and can be killed fiercely
How difficult it is to get by after being reduced to a womb by yourself
Three hairs, four cents, five cents and six hairs also gave us different demonstrations with different postures, really "tumbling mines", with various postures, various schemes to accurately step on every possible political trap, economic trap, financial trap ...
What we looked at in the back was a terrified... Then silently wrote it down in a small book.
Recently, Da Mao and Er Mao personally went into battle and practiced the idiom solitaire for us, namely:
"Brothers wall, wall pushing, prevarication, pili yangqiu" and "heaven and earth, watching the fire from the other side, adding fuel to the fire, oil prices rise"
Hello everyone, I am Yuanfang, today we talk together: how long can the bear be touched?
At the beginning of 19 years, I didn't really understand what it meant to "stick to the bottom line thinking and focus on preventing and resolving major risks."
Because in 19 years, although it was shouted for a long time, "three to one, one reduction and one supplement", although it felt that "money is not very good to earn", although "the conflict in East Ukraine has been very fierce"... However, I really don't quite understand why "bottom-line thinking" is needed and why "major risks" need to be prevented and resolved.
Soon, three years passed... Today, we can seriously sort out what kind of major risks have occurred in the past three years?
This is the story of what happened to the bear...
In the March 12 article "War Has Gone, Still Fantasizing About Peace?" " mentioned:
Many people think that war should be a precision-guided missile blowing up in your head, or a soldier's bayonet piercing your chest, a war should be a torrent of steel, or a global nuclear war that will perish together...
This is war, but it is only a form of war.
The purpose of war has never been to kill people, what is politics? Politics is the right to allocate resources, and war is a continuation of politics, but also to rectify resources, control resources, and occupy resources.
In the May 2 article "What's wrong with not wanting to fight?" " mentioned:
We don't want to fight a "public opinion war."
It is better to watch entertainment gossip and eat melons every day than to cut off diplomatic relations for the indignation of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
But the hidden "one-four-five-zero" emerges in an endless stream, forcing us to show the region and purify the network;
We don't want to fight a "financial war."
Every day to see the stock rise and the stability of the property market, it is better than worrying about the ups and downs of the stock market and the bond market.
But the precise "Zhongzhi point killing" continues to increase, forcing us to constantly clarify and step by step;
We don't want to fight the "epidemic prevention war"
Every day to see the good mountains and rivers crowded, better than for home isolation nucleic acid testing sanitize tun dish,
But the incessant "suspected poisoning" malicious spread has forced us all to endanger ourselves, and all the grass and trees are soldiers;
We don't want to fight an "economic war."
Looking at the vigorous employment stability of foreign trade every day is better than the difficulty of stable employment expected for the development of enterprises.
But the long-term "layer by layer" trade sanctions have forced us to break our arms to survive and survive in death.
The above public opinion war, financial war, epidemic prevention war, and economic war have all happened and are still continuing, but after writing at that time, many small partners left a message in the background:
"It's terrifying to watch..."
"No, the situation has not reached this point!"
In fact, I especially wish I were "alarmist" and "alarmist". No, ten days have passed, the situation has not changed fundamentally, and the changes are intensifying...
Here, there is a problem that I did not want to talk about, did not want to talk about, and even did not want to think about, and I may need to talk about it today, that is:
Will what happened to the bear today one day happen to us? If it happens, are we prepared for this from the state, to the city, to the enterprise, to the individual?
From late February, the bear showed us two questions:
First, will they be forced to become involved in "regional" armed conflicts?
Second, will they be forced to face the sanctions of the "Onsa gang"?
First, will they be forced to become involved in "regional" armed conflicts?
In fact, to this day, there are many Chinese who believe that the initiator of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is Russia, who accuse:
Russia is aggressive
Putin is a war maniac
Peace without regard to human rights
Non-observance of the international order
As for the merits of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has spoken many times, and many of the previous ones will not be repeated, you can check it yourself, and I will reprint the latest statement:
On May 9, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said:
The real reason for the escalation of the situation in Ukraine is that the United States has used Ukraine as a geopolitical pawn and has continuously sent weapons to the front line. However, the propaganda of the Western media is very different from the actual situation, which makes it almost impossible for the Western people to form an objective and balanced opinion on the conflict.
For every more distorted report, there may be one more hoodwinked person and one less hope for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
So will we be "forced into a" regional "armed conflict" like Russia?
Although I would never like this to happen, the probability of this happening is increasing from today's situation. Because we can see that the United States is gradually testing our political bottom line and security bottom line in the way of "cutting sausages".
In the case of Ukraine, for example, how is it gradually promoted?
In 2002, Ukraine's then-president, Kuchma, first proposed the goal of joining NATO.
In 2004, Ukraine's Yushchenko was elected president, making joining NATO a strategic goal of Ukraine's diplomacy.
At the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, NATO promised Ukraine to join.
In 2010, then-Ukrainian President Yanukovych declared Ukraine a non-aligned country out of consideration for Russian-Ukrainian relations, and Ukraine's accession to the treaty came to an end.
In 2014, Ukraine repealed the State Non-Aligned Status Act, removing legal obstacles to Ukraine's accession to the treaty.
In 2019, Ukraine passed amendments that enshrined the ultimate goal of joining NATO in the country's constitution.
At the same time, how did the US-led NATO cut sausages?
From 1999 to 2017, NATO expanded eastward four times, expanding its membership from 16 at the time to the current 29 countries, covering most European countries. Through eastward expansion, NATO has built a strategic defensive line in the east of Europe from the Baltic Sea in the north, through Central and Eastern Europe in the middle, through the Black Sea in the south, and up to Turkey, which has greatly squeezed Russia's strategic space and formed a situation of encirclement and blockade of Russia. NATO has not relented, and is still planning eastward expansion, taking the co-optation of Ukraine and Georgia as the focus of continued eastward expansion.
This reminds me of a story about "camels and tents":
On a cold winter night, an Arab was sitting in his tent when the curtain was gently lifted and his camel looked out into the tent.
The Arab asked it kindly, "Do you have anything to do?" "
The camel said, "Master, I am frozen. Please let me stick my head out into the tent. "
The generous Arab said, "No problem. "
The camel stuck its head into the tent.
Soon after, the camel pleaded again, "Can you let me put my neck in?" "
The Arabs also agreed. The camel then put its neck into the tent.
Its body was outside, shaking its head uncomfortably.
Soon it said, "It's very uncomfortable to stand like this, so let me put my front legs in the tent and occupy only a small area." "
The Arab said, "Then put your front legs in." "
This time the Arabs themselves moved their bodies to make room for a little because the tent was too small.
The camel then spoke again: "Actually, I stood like this and opened the door of the tent, which caused us both to freeze. Can I stand in it all? "
The master protected the camel as if he were protecting himself, saying, "Well, then you will stand whole inside." "
But the tent was so small that the two of them couldn't squeeze in.
When the camel came in, he said, "I don't think this tent can accommodate the two of us, you are relatively small, you had better stand outside." That way I can live in this tent. "
The camel said and pushed its master, and the Arabs were squeezed out.
The reality story and the fable story are all told.
So will we be "forced into" regional "armed conflict" like Russia?
Some people say: "We won't, we love peace, as long as we don't cause trouble, we hold back, there will be no real conflict."
Really? Can you really "hold back"?
If a retired senior U.S. official secretly visits a certain area, can you bear it?
If a retired senior U.S. official visits a certain area publicly, will he bear it?
If the current senior U.S. official secretly visits a certain area, will he bear it?
If the current senior US official visits a certain area publicly, will he bear it?
If the United States privately dispatches troops to guide a certain area, will it bear with it?
If the United States openly sends troops to guide a certain area, will it bear with it?
If the United States privately says that it supports the independence of a certain region, will it bear it?
If the United States openly says that it supports the independence of a certain region, will it bear with it?
If the United States asks a certain region to speak of independence in private, will it bear it?
If the United States demands that a certain region openly say independence, will it bear it?
If the United States arranges for a certain area to unintentionally blow up ships, will it bear with it?
If the United States arranges for a certain area to deliberately blow up ships, will it bear with it?
If the United States arranges for a certain region's missiles to fly to the mainland by mistake, will it bear with it?
If the United States arranges for missiles from a certain region to fly directly to the mainland, will it bear with it?
Guess where we are now?
Guess what, there will be a few steps left?
Guess what, can we really stand it?
Guess what, can we really stand it?
That...... Are we really ready?
Second, will they be forced to face the sanctions of the "Onsa gang"?
The sanctions package faced by the bear has been demonstrated in the past two months:
Financially:
WIFT: Kicking russian banks out.
Switzerland: Assets in Russian banks with Swiss presence have been frozen.
Apple Pay: Total lockdown.
Google Pay: Suspension of use indefinitely.
PayPal: Freeze the withdrawal account.
Major cryptocurrency platforms: block all in Russian accounts
……
Technically:
AMD: The supply of microchips is prohibited, and the supply of graphics cards will soon be prohibited.
Intel: Completely stop supplying chips to Russia.
TSMC: Stopped supplying chips to Russia.
Apple: Suspend sales of all products in Russia.
Dell: Exit the market.
Major telecommunications equipment manufacturers: Stop all business in Russia
……
Company:
McDonald's: Temporarily closed 850 stores in Russia.
Starbucks/Coca-Cola: Suspension of operations in Russia.
Shell: Exited a joint venture in Russia.
Exxon Mobil: Exited a joint venture in Russia.
Nike: Suspended online sales in Russia.
Major European and American car companies: Suspend the production and sale of cars in Russia.
……
Logistics:
FedEx: Temporarily suspends shipments to Russia.
UPS: Temporarily stop shipping to Russia.
United States: Russian aircraft are prohibited from entering the airspace.
Eu: Implement an overall airspace closure for Russia.
Canada: Not only is there a no-fly, but it's also a no-go for Russian vessels.
Major European and American logistics companies: stop import and export services to Russia.
……
In public opinion:
Twitter/YouTube/Facebook: Block Russian accounts.
BBC: Revocation of broadcasting licences.
Eurovision: Disqualification.
Mobile World Congress: Refusal of accreditation of the Russian delegation.
StarLink Network: Provides network to Ukraine.
Major European and American entertainment companies: blocking the distribution of films in Russia
……
Then will we be forced to face the sanctions of the "Ansar gang"?
What do you think???
If we are forced to get involved in "regional" armed conflicts, then sanctions are inevitable ...
You ask, "Does that always need a reason?" ”
Here's why:
"XXXX" aggressiveness
"XX" is a war maniac
Peace without regard to human rights
Non-observance of the international order
You say, "We're not like that, it's just that they're deceiving people too much!" ”
He said: "You shut up, I don't want you to feel, I want me to feel!" ”
Guess where we are now?
Guess what, there will be a few steps left?
Guess what, can we really stand it?
Guess what, can we really stand it?
That... Are we really ready?
In the past thirty years, the bears have "rolled over the mines", using various postures and schemes to accurately step on every possible political trap, economic trap, and financial trap...
Let's take a lot of detours.
In the past hundred days, the bears have "gone shirtless", using multi-dimensional, multi-angle, and extremely three-dimensional to force the enemy to what extent you have no bottom line, and how bottomless it is to move...
Let's have a little more time to prepare.
Although Hegel said:
The only lesson that mankind has learned from history is that it has not learned any lesson from history.
However, even vaccines have an "immune protection period", the bear has just personally performed it, we turned our heads and forgot, thinking that we are just a spectator, it would be a pity...
After all, there are not many chances of a bear being touched...
We must adhere to the bottom line thinking, enhance the sense of distress, and effectively prevent and resolve various risks on the way forward. Rainbows and storms coexist, opportunities and challenges coexist, this is an eternal dialectical law. The history of our party building for nearly a hundred years, the founding of New China for more than 70 years, and the reform and opening up for more than 40 years has never been smooth sailing. Those who do not seek easy things will succeed, and those who do not seek refuge will enter. We must dialectically understand and grasp the general trend at home and abroad, strengthen strategic, systematic, and forward-looking research and planning, make ideological and work preparations for coping with changes in the external environment for a long time, and be good at cultivating new opportunities in the crisis and opening up a new situation in the midst of changes.
——2020.9.8, Speech at the National Commendation Conference on Fighting the Epidemic