I was laughed to death these two days
CICC 2022, nine of the top ten predictions are wrong!
Netizen God Comment: Can also be fooled by one, indicating that the analyst is not paid in vain...
Another netizen turned out CICC's top ten predictions in 2018 and found that "nine and a half" were wrong among the ten, which is not easy.
Oops, laugh to death!
Of course, I laugh not at Zhongjin, but at how unreliable it is to predict how unreliable the market is!
Shanglian: It seems reasonable to explain that the head is the Tao in the past
Downlink: Predict the future dodge, the error is amazing
Horizontal Batch: Economic Analysis
Share a few lessons:
(1) The market is extremely difficult to predict, there are too many factors affecting the market, and most people are touching the elephant blindly, and the more they touch, the more wrong they are. And there are often black swans that exceed expectations, directly destroying the three views.
(2) Most of the non-combat, empty nonsense predictive analysis, basically don't look at it. Most brokerage analysts fall into this category. There are very few, practical and top-performing fund managers who deserve careful consideration. Especially fund managers who make money by macro timing, they make money by predicting macro trends, and they should attach great importance to it. For example, we talked about Li Bei some time ago.
(3) The conclusion of the prediction is less credible, and the logic of the prediction is more seen and learned.
CICC's view actually represents the general view in 2022.
At the beginning of 2022, the market generally held that economic fundamentals were under pressure in 2022, but monetary easing and policy were strong. The epidemic and the periphery are stable. The downside of the index is not large, and there are structural opportunities.
The figure below is CSC's summary of the predictions of more than 10 mainstream private placements for 2022, and the general direction is similar to what CICC said.
Why are all predictions wrong?
Because there are 3 big black swans whistling in!
The first big black swan: Big Mao Ermao has dried up, energy has become tight, and prices have soared. After a big rally in 2021, resource stocks continued to rise in 2022, which no one expected.
The second largest black swan: Western economies generally suffered from high inflation not seen in more than 40 years, followed by an iron-fisted interest rate hike not seen in 40 years, and asset prices collapsed around the world.
The third black swan: the Omicron mutation, which caused our original prevention and control measures to break down. In the second quarter, Shanghai was prevented and controlled, and the economic growth rate fell to 0.4%. In the fourth quarter, due to the national distribution, GDP growth fell back to 2.9%. A-shares then bottomed out twice in Q2 and Q4.
Although the forecasts of brokerages and private equity firms for 2022 are outrageously wrong. But we must also know that the reason why they are wrong is that the 3 black swans fly together, and we must know the reason. In this way, we can slowly understand the logic of market operation and use it to analyze and respond to the future market.
For example: in December, because of the liberalization, the economy was shocked, and the market fell to 3,000 points again, and I shouted for a heavy hand. It happened to be lucky to grasp the core contradiction of the market, and the bottom was heavy, and did not step on this wave of market.
Of course, I dare to make a heavy hand, not only because of the above analysis, but also because the balanced fault tolerance rate is very high, even if it is wrong, it does not matter. The index has not risen for 5 years, and the balanced type still has an annualized return of 12.7%.
The bottom heavy position + balanced fall less and more rise, forming a complete investment system, I dare to make a heavy hand.
(4) This also leads to the fourth shared lesson.
Every time I post an article or video, the following is a prediction market
What 3100 is the pressure level, immediately turn around and adjust to 3000 points
What years to fall sharply, years ago to sell quickly
After a few days of continuous sharp rises, the friends who were predicting and constantly buying and selling there every day before are now stepping on the air and breaking their thighs.
Every day pat your head to predict the market, the more you predict, the more you lose.
Put the time of forecasting on learning the complete investment system, so that there can be a fundamental improvement.
However, in the market, there is a complete investment system, and there are very few complete actual combat announcements, most of which are fragmented fragments.
You can learn from me, a rookie, I have a complete system, but I have also made big mistakes and upgraded the investment system again.
Inside are millions of real money and actual combat tuition fees, which has certain reference significance.
I put the latest investment system up, you can click on the following article to view, more or less enlightening.
Introduction to the latest investment system of Midodo!
Finally, review today's market.
On the last trading day of the Year of the Tiger, the Big A market continued to soar upwards led by northbound funds. Major indexes closed in the red across the board, with more than 3,600 stocks rising. The volume also amplified to 750 billion. To put aside previous years, the last two trading days before the holiday, the amount of energy has shrunk more sharply, this time it is the other way around, everyone wants to take the lead in the previous year, for fear of stepping on the empty later.
The 180-degree change in thinking was also the credit of foreign investment, which has been arching the fire for the past three weeks. For example, today, northbound funds bought another 9.3 billion yuan, and the cumulative amount reached 112.5 billion. And foreign capital favors the white horse with great power, causing the index to rise. At this time, the fellows are anxious, just like Wang Duoyu in the movie, hurry up, hurry up and run into the field, if you don't buy it, you can't buy it...
It has to be said that this wave of foreign capital is indeed extremely ferocious, and it has hit the highest monthly inflow since the opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2014. Looking back at the highest net purchases in history, we can see that most of them occurred in 2019. And in the second month of the large inflow, there was almost no decline. This year's macro environment is more similar to 2019, both are the year of economic recovery. A-shares rose 22% in the whole year in 19 years, but only rose 5.68% this year, and there is room for reverie in the future.
Liquor sector: Baijiu fell slightly by 0.4% today, although the decline was not large, but it has been adjusted for 4 consecutive days. From the perspective of capital flow, foreign capital is still buying first-line brands of liquor such as Moutai Wuliangye, but domestic capital has not followed much recently, mainly in the short-term wave of 40% increase is too large, foreign capital is rectal to buy did not plan to sell, and domestic capital always likes to drop the bag first.
(Northbound funds to increase positions, click to see a larger picture)
Pharmaceutical sector: Pharmaceuticals fell higher today, but hit a new high since this round of rebound. Technically, a large white candlestick broke the yearly line strongly upwards on Monday, which represents a very strong signal. At present, medicine has just left the bottom-building area, and it is more likely to continue to rise later. Continue to take it well in the car, and the light warehouse can wait for the adjustment before intervening.
New energy sector: New energy rose more than 1 point today. From the perspective of the plate, the growth sector led by new energy and the value sector represented by the blue-chip white horse are still seesaws. The main thing is the problem of insufficient overall funds, there is so much water, you can take care of this end and you can't take care of this end. In the previous two years, when trillions were traded every day, there was no such phenomenon, and everyone went up hand in hand. I hope that a wave of funds will be available later in the year, so that everyone can make money!
Finally, I would like to greet you in advance and wish you a rapid development of wealth "rabbit". During the New Year, Duoduo will not post. In the past year, I have been dreaming every day about how to optimize the combination and earn more income, but I can't sleep well, and my body can't bear it. Take a few days off for the New Year, and prepare to create a new U.S. stock portfolio and start laying out another opportunity that may be better.