Beijing, July 22 (Reporter Zhang Ni) On the 22nd, the water on the streets of Zhengzhou city gradually receded, and the daily life of citizens slowly recovered, and the Zhengzhou City Anti-Flood Control Index lowered the flood prevention level I emergency response to level III.
It was a rare rainstorm that broke multiple histories, but when the water receded, people still wanted to ask: Why did the rainstorm cause so much damage? Are there some costs that should not have been paid?
The picture shows the exit of Shakou Road Station of Zhengzhou Metro Line 5, which occurred on the evening of July 20. Photo by Li Guigang, a reporter of China News Service
Can rainfall forecasts be more accurate?
On the evening of July 20, Zhengzhou Metro Line 5, the waist-deep water in the subway car became a hot picture on the Internet, and many netizens were surprised: Why is the subway still operating after such a heavy rain? Passengers still go to the car?
In fact, on the 20th, when the national public opinion focused on Zhengzhou, Henan, the rain here has been raining for three days.
What makes the public wonder is: is the meteorological department's previous forecast accurate with such a large amount of rainfall?
In fact, at about 11:00 a.m. on the 19th, the Zhengzhou Meteorological Bureau issued a weather forecast saying that there was heavy to heavy rain in Zhengzhou from the 19th to the 21st. At noon on the same day, the yellow warning signal for heavy rain and the yellow warning signal for lightning were issued respectively.
At 19:13 that night, the rainstorm warning was upgraded to orange, and after more than 2 hours, the warning was upgraded again and turned red. The red alert continued to be released on the 20th.
However, the intensity of the heavy rain still far exceeded the expectations of many people - from 16:00 to 17:00 on the 20th, within 1 hour, the precipitation in Zhengzhou reached 201.9 mm, exceeding the city's precipitation in July.
Ruan Xiang, the director of the Zhengzhou National Basic Meteorological Station with 37 years of work experience, described it as "never seen", "full of doubts" and "dare not believe", and the meteorological monitors did not even dare to believe the rainstorm data, and finally chose to hand-calculate proofreading...
Since the rainfall is so large, can the previous weather forecast be more accurate?
On the evening of the 20th, the official microblog of the Zhengzhou Meteorological Bureau answered this question: as far as the rainstorm is concerned, it is the result of the interaction of different time scales and different spatial scales. At present, the observation data and information on heavy rains that it provides are mainly for the weather scale, while the small and medium-scale observations that directly cause heavy rainfall are not sufficient or even very lacking.
Therefore, in the rainstorm forecast, the term "local" often appears, precisely because with the current forecasting ability, it is often only possible to predict the range of local strong weather in advance, and it is impossible to predict the exact location of its occurrence in advance.
The accuracy of rainstorm forecasts has always been a world-class challenge. Even in developed countries such as the United States, the accuracy of 24-hour rainstorm forecasts is only 22% to 23%.
Cheng Xiaotao, a member of the Expert Committee of the State Disaster Reduction Commission and former director of the Institute of Flood Prevention and Disaster Reduction of the China Water Resources and Hydropower Research Institute, also pointed out in an interview with the media that when forecasting heavy rain this time, the meteorological department predicted that the rain center would be in Jiaozuo at the beginning, but in the end it was actually in Zhengzhou, with a slight deviation. This is an unavoidable error in existing meteorological science and technology.
On July 22, 15 commanders and fighters of the water search and rescue detachment of China Aneng Wuhan Rescue Base carried out drainage operations from north to south in the Jingguang North Road Tunnel in Zhengzhou City, carrying out pumping and drainage operations from north to south with two sets of mother-of-son "dragon suction" and two integrated pump trucks. China News Service reporter Zhang Chang photographed
Can emergency response mechanisms keep up?
A rain that makes a city in a state of "soaking" for a short time, after the meteorological department warns, other emergency measures keep up in time?
On the afternoon of the 20th, Zhengzhou City upgraded the flood control emergency response level to 3 levels in 5 and a half hours. At 16:30 on the same day, the highest level of flood control level I emergency response was activated.
However, the city's evening rush hour of traffic continued to take place in heavy rain, and eventually, a moving subway train stopped in the flood, trapping hundreds of people in the tunnel.
What does the red warning of heavy rain issued by Zhengzhou as early as the 19th mean?
According to the "Measures for the Release and Dissemination of Meteorological Disaster Early Warning Signals in Henan Province", the corresponding defense guidelines for the red warning signals of heavy rains include: the government and relevant departments should do a good job in emergency prevention and rescue work in accordance with their duties; stop assemblies, suspend classes, and suspend business (except for special industries); and do a good job in the prevention and rescue work of disasters such as flash floods, landslides, and mudslides.
Obviously, after the early warning of the meteorological department is issued, the emergency response measures are more important.
In 2010, the State Council promulgated and implemented the Regulations on Meteorological Disaster Defense, which clearly stipulates that the meteorological disaster emergency plan shall include the standards for initiating the emergency plan, the command system and responsibilities of the emergency organization, the prevention and early warning mechanism, the emergency response measures and safeguard measures.
In addition, local meteorological authorities at all levels and relevant departments of local people's governments at or above the county level shall, in accordance with their duties and division of labor, jointly do a good job in meteorological disaster prevention in their respective administrative regions.
The "Henan Meteorological Disaster Emergency Response Plan" issued in the same year made it clear that meteorological and other departments must inform the public of weather warnings at the first time.
In response to heavy rain, the above-mentioned emergency plan also specifically clarifies that the meteorological department strengthens monitoring and forecasting, timely issues rainstorm warning signals and related defense guidelines, and increases the density of forecast periods in a timely manner. Public security and transportation departments shall formulate detour routes for the sections of roads damaged by water and accumulate water, and implement traffic guidance or control.
In terms of rail transit, the "Zhengzhou Rail Transit Regulations" proposes that when the safety of rail transit is seriously affected by natural disasters, bad meteorological conditions or major safety accidents, and the safe operation cannot be guaranteed, the rail transit operation unit can suspend operation, report to the municipal transportation administrative department in time, and announce to the public.
According to the analysis of relevant experts, the meteorological department has continuously issued the highest level of early warning, but the problem is that China has not yet formed a set of emergency mechanisms for meteorological early warnings.
After the meteorological warning, what is the situation to stop work and production? How should the various departments be coordinated? How do I dispatch various disaster relief resources? What are the real emergency actions to be taken? A range of issues have yet to be clarified.
Just the day after the accident of Zhengzhou Metro Line 5, the Ministry of Transport issued the "Emergency Notice on Effectively Doing a Good Job in Flood Prevention of Urban Rail Transit".
The "Notice" pointed out that the operating unit should fully absorb the lessons of the recent rainwater backfilling incident, further adjust and improve the emergency plan, and take emergency measures such as stopping trains, evacuating passengers, and closing stations for unconventional situations such as over-designed rainstorm intensity.
On July 22, firefighters in Zhengzhou received a report that some trapped people in Zhengzhou Fuwai Hospital still needed rescue. The reporter followed the rescuers to the hospital and went to the intersection of the East Fourth Ring Road and Zhengkai Avenue, and the water depth of the culvert in front of them was impassable. Photo by Lang Lang, a reporter from China News Network
Can the construction of sponge cities alleviate waterlogging?
In this historically rare rainstorm, some netizens turned over an "old news" about "Zhengzhou builds a sponge city to bid farewell to 'seeing the sea'".
In recent years, sponge city construction planning has been carried out in many cities across the country, so can this extreme rainstorm be used to harshly blame the construction of "sponge city"?
In October 2015, the General Office of the State Council issued the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Construction of Sponge Cities, which clearly states that through the construction of sponge cities, the impact of urban development and construction on the ecological environment will be minimized, and 70% of the rainfall will be absorbed and utilized on the spot.
According to media reports, at present, more than 400 cities in China have issued sponge city construction implementation planning plans to accelerate the construction of sponge cities.
What is the situation in Henan Province?
In May 2016, Henan Province issued the Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Construction of Sponge Cities, and identified 8 cities such as Zhengzhou, Xuchang, Puyang and Jiaozuo as provincial sponge cities for exploration and pilot drive.
In order to better build a sponge city, Zhengzhou issued the "Zhengzhou Sponge City Special Plan (2017-2030)", proposing that Zhengzhou should plan 191 waterlogged drainage channels in the main urban area; build and transform sponge parks; and create ecological riverfront buffer zones on both sides of the river...
The "Planning" also mentions the construction target, by 2030, the area of Zhengzhou's main urban area to meet the requirements of sponge city construction will account for about 88.7% of the total area of the built-up area.
So, can such a sponge city withstand the invasion of heavy rain? Some industry experts believe that attributing the flood disaster in Zhengzhou to the construction of sponge cities is a misunderstanding of sponge cities.
Xia Jun, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and dean of the Institute of Water Security of Wuhan University, analyzed the media that sponge city construction can alleviate super-standard flood disasters within its decentralized and centralized water storage and drainage capacity. But the losses of exceptionally large natural disasters that exceed the standard cannot be eliminated.
Xia Jun stressed that when a super-standard natural disaster occurs, what human beings can do is to forecast and warn and dispatch, use possible engineering and non-engineering measures, prevent in advance, and reduce or reduce the loss of natural disasters as much as possible.
"This torrential rain is in any city in the world, and I believe the situation is similar to that of Zhengzhou, but (but if it is responded to in time) it is possible that the loss will be reduced." Huang Guoru, a distinguished expert of the Disaster Reduction Professional Committee of the China Hydraulic Society and a professor of the Department of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering of South China University of Technology, commented on this.
Rescue and post-disaster reconstruction efforts are still under way.
The floods receded, but the lessons left to Zhengzhou and other Chinese cities are forever.
According to the data of the seventh national census, in 2020, a total of 18 cities have a permanent population of more than 10 million. In extreme weather, the test for any city is just as severe.
How to prevent the tragedy from happening again? This is a question that all local governments should think about. (End)
Source: China News Network