#头条创作挑战赛#
2023 has entered the second half of the year, and in the three years of the epidemic, the country has just been liberalized in January ~ March, and the entire first half of the year has not bought a house, there may now be many people who put their plans to buy a house in July this year and beyond.
Now the high price of housing has continued sideways for many years, everyone has not looked forward to a big drop to sell houses, after all, the drop is also in vain, refer to the most typical example of this year, is a Kunshan housing enterprise under the name of the real estate, just dropped 30 ~ 400,000 want to digest the real estate as soon as possible, the result was quickly stopped by the relevant departments, in the current state strict supervision of the real estate market, requiring a stable development route, secretly reduce prices, disrupt the market to sell houses simply does not work.
Even if you can't sell a house after a big drop, but in the face of high housing prices, high living costs, and want to have three children, people who want to buy a house still hope that the house price can drop a little.
So, can house prices still fall from July? Judging from the following 4 signals, there may actually be a wave of lower house prices, do you agree?
Housing sales continue to be cold
According to data from the China Index Institute, in the first half of 2023, the total sales of TOP100 housing enterprises was 3.56823 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, a sharp decrease of 8.3 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to narrow. Among them, the monthly sales of TOP100 housing companies in June fell by 29.4% year-on-year, and fell by 19% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment.
(Image source: China Finger Research Institute Central Radio Network)
Although the decline has narrowed, but here to remind everyone, January ~ March, because the property market released a large backlog of demand for housing, three years of epidemic backlog demand, so, the property market has a rare heat, but overdraft after the demand for a house plan, only to lead to April ~ June property market cold obvious, then, in the second half of the year, there is not so much backlog demand, sales decline is predictable.
Property market "big fish eat small fish"
In the first half of the year, the heat of the property market in the second quarter fell all the way, except for the Dragon Boat Festival period, some cities increased, and the rest of the local promotion efforts were insufficient, and many places were dominated by smooth sales, that is, the supply of housing listings exceeded demand, resulting in a sharp year-on-year decline in sales.
The data shows that there are 7 housing enterprises with sales of more than 100 billion yuan, down 2 from the same period last year, and 78 housing enterprises with tens of billions of yuan, down 7 from the same period last year.
Large housing enterprises make money, some medium-sized housing enterprises are driven down, and this situation may continue, because the more cold the property market, everyone may be more inclined to the houses of large housing enterprises for the sake of protection, small and medium-sized housing enterprises to grab the source of customers, discount profits are inevitable.
The property market policy in many places has been relaxed
This year, many real estate markets have introduced policies to encourage the purchase of houses, and now they continue to be added, such as the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved a number of housing enterprise refinancing projects, under the three red lines, housing enterprises are difficult to borrow, many face the rupture of the capital chain, housing enterprises fall, will cause many enterprise losses, as well as bank loan repayment difficulties, to ensure the survival of housing enterprises, is the way to reduce losses.
For example, provinces are also actively reducing the pressure on everyone to buy houses, such as Inner Mongolia increasing the loan amount of residential provident fund, up to 1 million yuan, then, can allow some people to reduce the interest burden of commercial bank loans; Zhuhai lowered the interest rate of the first home loan, although the house price did not fall directly, but the total cost of buying a house decreased.
Gold Nine Silver Ten House Purchase Season
In the second half of the year, there is also an annual gold nine silver ten, all housing companies are also waiting for this period to push the market, housing enterprises have many real estate projects, the rare hot season of the real estate market is basically in a hurry to seize the opportunity to sell houses
During this period, the cost performance of the house is higher, and the housing company will also fight a price war, although it cannot be sold directly at a large price, it can still reduce everyone's total purchase cost, and it can save one point.
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