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Recently, the Western world has been full of voices about decoupling from China. From the United States to Europe, many politicians and experts are trying to find a rationale and rationale in favor of decoupling. The United States took the lead by issuing a complete ban on semiconductor technology and trade with China, and other countries have followed suit, requiring companies to leave China or reduce investment in China. However, reality tends to defeat ideas that are too binary, not only for those of lower social status, but also for social elites.
As one wise man put it, too much noise can complicate the problem and make people lose themselves in the distraction. In the face of the cries of some politicians, many large European companies have chosen to do the opposite and expand investment and exports to China, which has cost some politicians face. However, high-profile political propaganda rarely resists the onslaught of reality, especially in the economic sphere.
Recently, China lifted strict lockdown measures and resumed engagement with other countries. However, this does not mean that European investors will quickly return to the Chinese market, as they have begun to seek investment in Southeast Asian countries. Data presented by Hanfrey, Executive Director of the EU-ASEAN Economic Commission, support this view, showing that European investment in Southeast Asia is on the rise, while China's attractiveness is declining. This trend is reflected in the 2021 data, when EU member states' investments in ASEAN countries increased by 14%.
More notably, some large multinationals have set their sights on Southeast Asia. For example, Danish toy giant LEGO has invested in Vietnam, Dutch waste-to-energy group Harvest Waste plans to build factories in the Philippines, while Apple in the United States and Samsung in South Korea are also investing in Vietnam. These investments further strengthen Southeast Asia's position as a region attracting foreign investment.
While some experts worry about the impact on China's economic relationship with Europe, there are also voices that say this is not a unilateral decoupling from China. China is also actively seeking separation from Europe. Dr. Xu Chengwei pointed out that at present, the investment in China is mainly large European enterprises, but the overall investment prospects are not optimistic. On the one hand, China's zero-zero policy still raises concerns among investors; On the other hand, US-China tensions have also increased European doubts about China.
However, some are skeptical about Europe's decoupling from China. They argue that this view ignores China's status as a powerful economy. In the process of China's rise, many international companies find themselves less competitive in the Chinese market and seek new opportunities. This natural flow of capital does not equate to economic decoupling, but a normal adjustment of the market.
It is worth noting that Western countries have begun to realize that long-established commercial relationships are not easy to cut off in response to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The EU is also trying to reduce its dependence on certain countries to reduce risks. The EU has signed investment protection agreements with a number of Southeast Asian countries, indicating that they are looking for more partners to address global economic challenges.
All in all, in the face of the complex and ever-changing international situation, it is not enough to look at the problem from one side. The view of decoupling China requires a more holistic perspective, taking into account China's rise as an economy and the adjustment of the global economic landscape. Only then can we truly understand and respond to this complex reality.
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