At present, the list of Thailand's new cabinet is still in the making. In this election, the Pheu Thai Party is a coalition in the form of a ruling coalition. The so-called coalition government, simply put, is to serve as prime minister for the Pheu Thai Party, and the parties in the alliance divide the power of various departments of the government. That said, the jury is still out on how the powers of the various branches of government will be divided in the governing coalition, but it is expected to be announced within this week.
However, the new prime minister, Seita, mysteriously said that the list had been finalized, but according to the procedure he could not disclose it, and said that the name of the defense minister "will not disappoint."
On August 29, unexpected rumors arose: Pheu Thai had won the position of defense minister.
The earliest news was that the Minister of Defense had been appointed by Prayuth
The biggest attraction in Thai politics: the Thaksin family fights four ministries of defense?
If the news is true, it is big news.
The Thai Ministry of Defence's remit includes the appointment and dismissal of mid- and junior officers, the preparation of military spending plans, the auditing of military systems and anti-corruption. The military's personnel, financial, and supervisory powers are all concentrated in the Ministry of Defense. Whoever has full control of the Ministry of Defense can control the operation of the army. In the past, this department has been the iron barrel of the military, and no one can interfere with it. There are also many factions within the military, but the Minister of Defense must be a member of the military. Once the defense minister's throne falls into the hands of the democratic parties that oppose the military, the military will be at the mercy of others within the existing system. At that time, the military will want to fight back, and there is only one way: a coup, a table lift, and the overthrow of the existing system.
Historically, this moment has been played out three times.
For the first time, in 2005-2006, there was support for progressive forces within Thaksin, and General Tanmara took office as the Ministry of Defense. Tanmara and Thaksin plot a battle to settle the battle. First, within the competence of the Ministry of Defense, they transferred all the officers of the princely family in the capital region, and then gradually seized the command of the army. Thaksin's already at odds with the royal family and the military were already deep, and Tanmara's operation became the trigger for Thailand's military coup in 2006, when General Songthi, then army commander and Prayuth's old leader, surrounded Thaksin's office with tanks, seized power, ousted Thaksin, and imprisoned Tanmara.
The second time, in 2008, after Thaksin's oust, the military did not dare to come to power directly and announced new elections. As a result, the common people elected Thaksin's old subordinate Shama to power. Shama immediately became defense minister after his election, and less than a year later, the military found an excuse to kick Sharma out of office.
The third time, after Yingluck was elected prime minister, the conflict with the military continued to intensify. In 2013, Yingluck forcibly concurrently served as defense minister. Readers of the subsequent story should know - Prayuth staged a coup d'état to overthrow Yingluck.
It has been 18 years since 2005. The Thaksin family and the Pheu Thai Party, in order to balance the Thai military, stormed the position of the Ministry of Defense three times, and eventually suffered heavy losses. Pitta's supporters say that the Pheu Thai Party does not dare to fight with the military, but looking at the past history, the Thaksin family has snatched up a position in the Ministry of Defense for more than a decade and suffered heavy losses. General Tanmara alone remained in prison until Yingluck was elected.
In the 2023 general election, the prime minister's throne once again fell into the hands of Pheu Pheu Thai. At this time, the news came out that the Pheu Thai party had taken the Ministry of Defense, is the fourth assault coming?
New Prime Minister Seta
The two sides may form a fragile balance
If Pheu Pheu Thai can sit as defense minister and not be eliminated, it means that they can effectively check and balance the military's power, and during this term, the military may not dare to do anything to hinder Pheu Pheu Thai.
However, the author is skeptical of this news.
First of all, the importance of the Ministry of Defense has already been mentioned, and the prime ministers of the Thaksin family camp did the same thing shortly before they were overthrown, that is, they infiltrated the Ministry of Defense. For years, the military has also been holding back in the position of defense minister. Will it be easy to let it out this time?
Moreover, one of the conditions for the Pheu Thai Party to govern smoothly this time is to agree to form a joint cabinet with the military. If the military does not take the Ministry of Defense, then there is no point in forming a joint cabinet. He might as well have surrendered directly?
But the mysterious and mysterious Theta seemed very sure. It's puzzling.
Therefore, if the news is true, then the author guesses: for the Pheu Thai party and the military are singing double reeds. The Minister of Defence is a Pheu Thai Party member. However, all key positions below the Minister of Defense are arranged by the military.
Winning the Ministry of Defense for the Pheu Thai Party for more than a decade is a very encouraging news for the interior and voters, and it is very important to help boost the support rate of the Pheu Thai Party. Moreover, the minister is the boss in legal theory, and he really has a stalemate with the military, not to mention whether he can completely control the military, at least let the military throw a little rat trap;
On the other hand, although the defense minister is in the hands of the Pheu Thai Party, as long as the key deputy ministers in charge and the leaders of various departments are loyal to the military, the Pheu Thai Minister is an airborne leader, and it is difficult to move an inch.
Under such a layout, the two sides will form a fragile balance: win the minister for the Pheu Thai Party, win face, and use it to publicize public opinion; But the actual operation of the Ministry of Defense is controlled by the military, and the military loses face and wins. This may be a mutually acceptable solution.
However, if the Pheu Thai Party is too hasty, and if it wants to use the leadership of the defense minister to remove the nails planted by the military, then it is estimated that the military will have to carry out a coup d'état. So this balancing act is also fragile.
Step by step
The list of the Thai cabinet is expected to be announced soon. If the news is false and the Ministry of Defense is still in the hands of the military, it is expected and reasonable. But if you really win the Ministry of Defense, then the situation will be wonderful, they are said to be instigated by the Pheu Thai Party, the Thaksin family bowed to the military and jointly formed a cabinet, but I did not expect that people could really step by step and cut off the wings of the military. What is old wisdom and calculation, what is old traitor and cunning?
【Anti-plagiarism tag】This article is written by "Sidney Caton of Nanyuan", and I am currently only contributing on the Toutiao platform. Readers look for the name of the posting account in the upper left corner. If you see this article on a platform other than today's headlines, or the name of the publisher is not "Sidney Kardon of Nanyuan", it means that you are plagiarizing Lao Tzu. Here, let us jointly send this righteous curse to heaven and earth: the plagiarist's wife is separated, cancer returns to poverty, parents are violently killed, and children and grandchildren are cut off.