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Not long ago, there was news circulating on the Internet that Huawei had a patent for ultraviolet lithography technology. The news attracted widespread attention and also caused the share price of the Dutch company ASML to fall. This incident once again highlighted the fact that Lao Mei originally thought that through blockade and suppression, it could limit China's development in the field of chip semiconductors, but the result was unexpected.
China imports hundreds of billions of dollars of chips and semiconductor equipment every year, however, out of its own interests, Laomei has cut off the global chip semiconductor supply chain and brought the development of the entire industry under its control. This approach has made companies such as ASML aware of the importance of the Chinese market and forced to tread cautiously between China and the United States.
ASML once thought that it could control SMIC's development by not selling EUV lithography machines to the Chinese market, but the company's CEO bluntly said: China will master lithography machine technology in the next 3 to 5 years, and the current blockade and suppression of China by the United States is doomed to be futile.
Although ASML is the only company in the world that produces EUV lithography machines, its technology and capital support rely on the United States. The manufacture of EUV lithography machines involves hundreds of thousands of components, and its research and development was completed by an organization led by Intel over a period of 6 years. ASML has made a breakthrough with the technical support of the United States, but it has also had to accept the technical protection provisions and other rules formulated by the United States.
While ASML has expanded its capacity in recent years, planning to deliver 90 EUV lithography machines by 2025, the development of EUV lithography machine technology has peaked as Moore's Law approaches its limits. Costs are increasing, with an EUV lithography machine now costing $120 million and a 3nm wafer costing $20,000. As a result, many new technologies are beginning to emerge in an attempt to replace ASML's EUV lithography machines, including Huawei's optoelectronic chips and quantum chips, and Japan's NIL nanotechnology.
Canon, the former lithography machine giant, also jointly developed with Kioxia and launched nanoimprint technology to replace ASML EUV lithography machine technology. Kioxia has already started testing nanoimprint technology in 2017, currently supports the 15nm process, and is expected to launch devices that compete with ASML EUV lithography machines in 2025.
In addition, U.S. companies are constantly developing new technologies. In October 2022, the U.S. company released the world's highest resolution lithography system, which can manufacture chips of 0.768 nanometers. Although the technology still has some flaws and is only suitable for the production of small batches of quantum chips, it marks the intensification of technological competition.
More and more countries and businesses are looking to bypass ASML's EUV lithography machines because they recognize the risks that relying on ASML can bring. Foreign media began to reflect on whether EUV lithography machines are really so important. As the United States continues to tighten its blockade of SMIC, if ASML does not change its strategy, China may break away from its dependence on ASML in the near future and turn its competitors into partners.
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