The Yawan high-speed railway is the first high-speed railway in Southeast Asia. The high-speed rail line is not long, only 142 kilometers, but it is a flagship project of the "Belt and Road" cooperation, and after the trial operation, the demonstration effect is obvious! Indonesia specially chose to open it during the ASEAN Summit, which is to show the "national power" to other countries, especially ASEAN countries, and also advertised China's high-speed rail for free! Before and after the opening of the Yawan high-speed railway, it caused a chain reaction: Vietnam and Laos joined forces to invite South Korea to invest about 5.5 billion US dollars to build the Vientiane-Vinh An high-speed railway; Japan and India announced during the ASEAN summit that they would invest heavily to strengthen cooperation with ASEAN in the field of infrastructure. Recently, Thailand is also anxious, the new prime minister personally came out, twice in 10 days to actively express his position, hoping to promote the second phase of the China-Thailand railway project.
According to Thailand's Lanxiang Network, Thailand's new Prime Minister Sheta led a team to Nong Khai province on the Lao-Thai border to inspect railway construction and China-Laos-Thailand cross-border logistics. According to reports, the team of Sheta Prime Minister took a train (pulled by diesel diesel locomotives) at Udon Thani Station at 9:50am on September 9 and arrived at Nong Khai Railway Station at 10:50am. During the ride, Prime Minister Sheta exchanged views with the President of the Thai-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, Chairman of the Udon Thani Industry Committee, Director of the National Railways Authority of Thailand and others on railway construction, cross-border railway logistics, and distribution center construction. Participants hoped that the government would speed up the construction of the double-track railway (actually the China-Thailand railway project) with a view to its completion by 2026 to boost local trade and tourism.
This is the second time in 10 days that Thailand's new Prime Minister Sheta has actively expressed his position on the China-Thailand railway project. On August 28, Lao Prime Minister Somsay Siphandon sent a telegram to Sheta congratulating him on his successful appointment as the 30th Prime Minister, hoping to continue the cooperation projects previously agreed upon by the two sides, and especially highlighting the China-Laos-Thailand Railway and the Fifth Thai-Laos Friendship Bridge. Sheta gave a positive response, and the first country to visit will also be in Laos, so as to accelerate the China-Laos-Thailand railway project and strengthen cooperation between the two countries in various fields. This time, Sheta personally led a delegation to take the train to inspect the railway construction and the cross-border logistics of the China-Laos-Thailand Railway, and the signal released was very obvious, that is, it hoped to accelerate railway construction and promote economic development.
Sheta team riding a train, picture from Thailand Lanxiang Network
Looking at the recent developments of the new Thai government, we can focus on two key messages. First, the Thai government has continued its positive attitude towards the China-Thailand railway. This is mainly due to the historical origins of the China-Thailand railway project. China and Thailand collaborated to build high-speed rail, the earliest prototype of which was the "rice-for-high-speed rail" program under the Yingluck government, which was later suspended by the military junta. However, Prime Minister Prayuth, who has a military background, restarted the project and started construction. At present, the ruling alliance of the new Thai government is mainly based on the Pheu Thai Party and military-backed political parties, and the Thaksin family behind the Pheu Thai Party advocates friendship with China, and he himself has been to China several times to recognize his ancestors and return to his ancestors, so the social tower of the Pheu Thai Party will also actively continue this project; In addition, former Prime Minister Prayuth, who has a military background, also regards the China-Thailand railway as a major achievement, and the military occupies an important position in the new government! Sheta has actively expressed its position twice in 10 days to promote the China-Thailand railway project with practical actions.
Second, the Thai government has not yet specified who to cooperate with or what the negotiation strategy is. Only the first phase of the China-Thailand railway project (Bangkok-Koratchasima section, with a total length of about 253 kilometers) has started construction, and it is planned to be completed and opened to traffic in 2026. However, the second phase of the Korat-Nong Khai section is undergoing feasibility studies and other work, which is scheduled to be submitted to the cabinet for approval in the second half of this year, and is expected to start construction in 2024 and be completed and opened to traffic in 2028. At present, although the new Thai government has expressed its plan to advance the second phase of the project as soon as possible, it has never negotiated with the Chinese side or negotiated strategies.
You know, the first phase of the project adopts the EPC model, Thailand is responsible for offline civil engineering construction, and the Chinese side is responsible for tracks, four-electric systems and vehicles (EMUs), which is rare in railway construction; In addition, in May this year, it was reported that Thailand asked China to transfer high-speed rail technology and adopt Japanese standards for construction; Finally, the second phase of the project is about 356 kilometers long, with a total investment of about 300 billion baht (about 62 billion yuan), which far exceeds the cost of the first phase of the project. Therefore, on the one hand, Thailand has actively expressed its willingness to advance the second phase of the project, but it has not reached the step of negotiation, and may even introduce third-party competition in the future in order to bargain in terms of capital investment, route direction, operation and management.
In fact, there is a reason why Thailand is in a hurry to promote the second phase of the project. The main thing is to see the demonstration effect of the China-Laos Railway and the Yawan High-speed Railway, and at the same time, it has also obtained the practical benefits brought by railway transportation. With the opening of the China-Laos Railway, Laos, as an underdeveloped country in the world, is in a state of lying down, and has become a "land-linked country", and has also become the first country in Southeast Asia to open a mobile train, which has made many countries look at it. Secondly, the opening of the Yawan high-speed railway, Indonesia became the first country in Southeast Asia to open high-speed rail, the influence in Southeast Asia and even the world gradually increased, the key is the construction of this railway, enhance the political mutual trust between China and Indonesia, promote the cooperation between the two countries in the fields of industry, production capacity, a large number of Chinese chemical, new energy vehicles, energy, ore and other fields of enterprises to invest in Indonesia, injecting new impetus into Indonesia's economic development.
Yawan high-speed railway bullet train
Thailand has reaped tangible benefits from the China-Laos Railway. After the opening of the China-Laos Railway, the land transportation time between China and Thailand has been shortened to 3 days, becoming the best channel for Thai fruits to export to China: from January to May this year, the total output value of fruits exported from Thailand to China through the China-Laos Railway reached 2,848.41 million baht, exceeding the total in 2022 (1.964 billion baht), an increase of 260%, and the value of durian increased by 364%! Once the China-Laos-Thailand railway corridor is formed, the cooperation potential of the two countries in industry, tourism and other fields will be released, injecting impetus into Thailand's economic development.
Of course, the more anxious Thailand is, the more calm we have to be. China's high-speed rail going out will not be smooth sailing, and there will be some problems, which will directly affect investment returns. First of all, there is the problem of external forces disrupting the situation. This has occurred many times in the negotiation process of the China-Myanmar Railway, the North-South High-speed Railway in Vietnam, and the Yawan Railway in Indonesia, and Japan and other countries have intervened many times, resulting in the slow progress of some projects, such as the China-Myanmar Railway. At present, the first phase of the China-Thailand Railway and the China-Laos Railway have adopted Chinese standards and Chinese technology, and the second phase of the project adopts other national standards and technologies, which will be difficult to comply, so we don't need to worry. In addition, construction-related issues are involved. Among them, land requisition and demolition is one of the main problems, and during the construction of the Yawan high-speed railway, it was delayed for four years to open because of land acquisition and other issues, and the total investment also increased by about 1.2 billion US dollars. The first phase of the China-Thailand Railway project has started construction in 2017, but the overall progress is only about 25%!
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