Official announcement! About the population, a big news comes

Author: Yu Fei

01 | Population raid sampling survey

On October 10, the National Bureau of Statistics issued an announcement:

In order to accurately and timely monitor and reflect the population development and changes in the mainland, and provide a basic basis for the Party and the government to formulate national economic and social development plans and population-related policies, the National Bureau of Statistics decided to organize a sample survey of population changes in 2023 nationwide.

As we all know, China has three major censuses, population census, economic census and agricultural census.

Since each census requires the mobilization of huge human, material, financial and time resources, the three major censuses are generally staggered.

The census and the agricultural census are conducted every 10 years, in years 0 and 6, respectively. Economic censuses are conducted every 5 years, in the 3rd and 8th years. If the population census is adjusted to every five years, the year of the economic census and the agricultural census must also be adjusted, otherwise it will be the case that two national censuses will be conducted at the same time in the existing year.

The population census is a comprehensive statistic every ten years, in addition to the national 1% population sample survey conducted every five years, and the annual sample survey of population changes is 1‰.

Three years ago, in 2020, the seventh national census was completed, and the eighth will be conducted in 2030.

According to the regulations, the 1% population sample survey will be conducted in 2025. This time the survey did not specify the proportion of the survey, whether it is 1‰ or 1% is unclear.

So why is the National Bureau of Statistics suddenly conducting a population sample survey in 2023? In the case of an annual sample survey of population changes, the National Bureau of Statistics will not issue a notice.

Judging from the announcement issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, it is basically every 5 years of population sample survey to issue the announcement.

For example, the announcement issued on October 8, 2015.

In other words, the latest announcement is a bit of a temporary initiation and a surprise investigation.

According to the announcement, the scope of the investigation, the target of the investigation, the content of the investigation, the time of the investigation, and the method of investigation are as follows. This does not indicate what percentage of the sample survey is.

Cartography: Urban Finance; Source: National Statistical Office

02

Why raid the population

So why a surprise population sample survey this year? The explanation given in the announcement of the National Bureau of Statistics is:

In order to accurately and timely monitor and reflect the changes in the mainland's population, it provides a basic basis for the Party and the government to formulate national economic and social development plans and population-related policies.

In other words, this survey may provide scientific data and basis for the next population policy, especially measures to encourage fertility.

One might say, can't the data from the seventh census three years ago be relied upon?

Sure, but:

First, Qipu coincided with the epidemic, and the data was not accurate enough, especially the population of Hubei Province. In the case of Wuhan, the increase of more than 1.2 million people at the end of 2020 was caused by the evacuation of the population during the epidemic period coinciding with the Qipu and the return of a large number of people after the lifting of the lockdown.

Second, in three years, the world has gone through vicissitudes, and China's population trend has also undergone great changes; three years ago our population was still growing, and three years later our population has increased negatively.

Last year, the country's population fell by 850,000, and the number of births fell below 10 million.

At the same time, 13 of the mainland's 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions are experiencing a decline in their permanent populations, and even Guangdong Province, which has traditionally experienced strong population growth, has seen a historic turn.

Cartography: Urban Finance; Data: Statistics bureaus of provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions

In terms of cities, of the 286 cities currently released with 2022 population data, only 128 cities have seen population growth, two are flat, and 156 cities are decreasing. More than half of the cities are depopulated.

Moreover, the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have seen a historic collective reduction.

Cartography: Urban Finance; Data: Municipal statistical offices

Add to that the disruption of three years of the pandemic.

Therefore, there is a need for an accurate presentation of population data after the epidemic is over.

This data can better reflect the population trend three years after the epidemic, not only can provide a more detailed and scientific basis for the population policy and employment policy to be formulated next, but also grasp the population flow can also provide better data support for real estate policy according to the city.

The population issue has become a major problem for mainstream countries in the world.

03

The demographic problem is a big problem

Japan has been growing negatively for more than a decade, and South Korea's population has continued to decline after peaking in 2020. Judging from the current number of births, South Korea's population is declining faster and faster.

Chinese mouth officially peaked in 2022.

Although the demographic shift only started last year, births began to decline as early as 2017, when the number of births last year was only 9.56 million, down 46.4% from a high of 17.85 million in 2016.

Cartography: Urban Finance; Data: National Bureau of Statistics

The impact of the continuous decline in births has begun to appear.

According to data released by the Ministry of Education, there were 289,200 kindergartens in 2022, 5,610 fewer than the previous year, a decrease of 1.90%. There were 46,275,500 children in preschool education, a decrease of 1,776,600 or 3.70% over the previous year.

The number of kindergartens has decreased for the first time in many years. More importantly, the number of kindergartens fell by 1,776,600 last year.

The Ministry of Education's data on primary schools also declined last year.

According to data released by the Ministry of Education:

In 2022, there will be 149,100 ordinary primary schools nationwide, 5,162 fewer than the previous year, a decrease of 3.35%. There were also 76,900 primary school teaching points, down 6,690 from the previous year. The enrollment of primary schools was 17,013,900, a decrease of 811,900 or 4.55% over the previous year; There were 107 million students, down 478,800 or 0.44% from the previous year; There were 17,406,100 graduates, an increase of 225,800 over the previous year, an increase of 1.31%.

The three key indicators of the number of schools, the number of students and the number of enrollment have declined across the board.

However, the number of primary schools has been decreasing over the past two decades. In 2012, the number of primary schools nationwide was 228,600, but in 2015 it fell below 200,000, and after last year it was 149,100.

Cartography: Urban Finance; Data: Ministry of Education

But there is a fundamental difference between past and present reductions.

In the past, the decline in the number of primary schools was accompanied by urbanization. After all, a large number of migrant workers have entered the cities, placed their children in the cities to study, and a large number of rural primary schools have been closed, but this is accompanied by the construction of a large number of schools in the cities.

Although the number of primary schools is decreasing, the number of primary school students has been growing under the demographic dividend.

The current decline in the number of primary schools is mainly due to the reduction in the number of students. In the future, the number of junior high schools, high schools, and even universities will also be affected by the next order over time.

From Japan's experience, the next wave of impact will put pressure on the economy and pensions.

First, our industrial structure determines that population is our advantage.

Developed countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan are financial capital powers, science and technology powers, and people's GDP is mainly supported by financial services and science and technology services.

China is a big country in industrial capital and manufacturing, and population is our advantage. When the population shifts, our advantage is no longer there.

Second, pension pressure.

China's pension model is that young people pay social security to supply the elderly. If the downward trend in the newborn population is not reversed, our generation may be left alone.

To turn things around, fertility must return to normal.

To reverse the fertility rate, it is necessary to start from the top-level design and formulate a scientific and effective plan. This requires close, scientific, and detailed census data.