You may not know that there is a person who predicted the future of China's property market two years ago. He is the famous economist Ma Guangyuan. He said that the era of real estate as China's best investment product is over, and the future house will gradually return to residential properties. And now, his prophecy has been fulfilled! The domestic property market has lost its money-making effect, and the era of becoming the best investment product has ended.
So, in the face of such a situation, should we grit our teeth and buy a house next year or sell it quickly? This question troubles a lot of people. Today, I will analyze it for you, starting from the three facts that are difficult to change in the current property market and Ma Guangyuan's prediction, to tell you the direction of buying and selling houses next year.
Fact 1: The relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market has undergone major changes
On July 24 this year, the National High-level Conference, when talking about the real estate market, pointed out a very important message: adapt to the major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the mainland real estate market, and adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner. What does this mean? That is to say, China's real estate market is no longer a situation of short supply, but a situation of oversupply!
Why is that? The simple reason is that our country has too much housing and too little housing demand. You don't believe it? Then take a look at the data:
According to central bank data, by the end of 2019, the housing ownership rate of mainland urban residents had reached 96%, with an average of 1.5 units per household. Moreover, more than 40 per cent of households own two or more dwellings. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of 2020, the per capita housing area of Chinese cities has reached about 40 square meters, far exceeding developed countries such as Europe and the United States and ranking first in the world.
According to data from the seventh population census, as of 2021, more than 18% of China's population is over 60 years old, and the aging of the population has further deepened. Some experts predict that by 2025, the total number of elderly people over 60 years old in China will reach 300 million, accounting for 21%. By then, China will enter a deeply aging society. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, the total number of newborns in mainland China has fallen below 10 million, about 9.56 million, reaching the lowest number of newborns since 1949. What's more, since 2018, the total number of births on the mainland has continued to decline for four consecutive years.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of July 2023, the area for sale of commercial housing in mainland China has reached 640 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, which is very close to the peak area of commercial housing for sale in mainland China in 2015 of 7.19 square meters.
What does this data say? That is to say, the total housing volume in our country has far exceeded our national housing needs. Moreover, as the population ages and the birthrate decreases, the demand for housing will decrease even more in the future. This means that house prices will face greater downward pressure in the future.
Fact 2: The epidemic has affected people's income and consumption views
In addition to changes in supply and demand, there is another factor that will also affect house prices, that is, the epidemic. After three years of the pandemic, most people's incomes have been affected to varying degrees, and some have even lost their jobs. Reduced incomes mean that the purchasing power of the real estate market will be weakened.
In addition, the three-year epidemic has completely changed the consumption concept of many people. In the past, early spending seemed to have become mainstream, but after the pandemic, people began to stop being keen on spending in advance and prefer to put money in the bank. Some time ago, the phenomenon of early repayment by a large number of home buyers is the best proof.
These changes illustrate a problem: people's interest and motivation to buy property is waning. This will also have a negative impact on house prices.
Fact 3: In the future, real estate market policies will become more and more favorable
Although the property market is currently facing many difficulties and challenges, it is not hopeless. Since July this year, in order to boost the real estate market, various preferential policies in the real estate market have emerged one after another. Rental affordable housing has been introduced, the policy of equal rights for rental and sale has been implemented, and the degree of standardization and transparency of the rental market has been improved. These policies are ostensibly designed to stimulate the housing market, but in fact, they are also designed to reduce the pressure on homebuyers to buy homes and repay loans. For those who have a need to buy a home, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.
In the long run, the real estate market will introduce more preferential policies in the future to promote the stable and healthy development of China's real estate market and reduce the threshold and pressure of buying a house.
Conclusion: Buying and selling a house next year depends on your own needs and capabilities
To sum up, how should we treat the house? Different people have different needs and abilities, so the decision to buy and sell a house should be made according to their actual situation. In general, there are the following situations:
If you are a buyer who just needs a house, that is, you do not have your own housing, or your housing conditions are very poor, then next year is a good opportunity, you can choose the right city and real estate, take advantage of various preferential policies, and buy a house that suits you. This can not only solve the housing problem, but also enjoy the value increase brought by the property.
If you are an improvement buyer, that is, you already have a home, but you want to change to a better house, then next year is also a good time to choose to sell your house and buy a more satisfactory one. This can not only improve the quality of life, but also avoid the loss caused by the fall in house prices.
If you are an investment home buyer, that is, you already have at least two homes, and you are buying mainly to make money, then next year may not be a good time, and you may want to consider selling some of your homes and moving the money to other areas with more potential. This reduces risk and increases returns.
Of course, the above is just my personal advice, depending on your own judgment and choice. After all, everyone's situation is different, and there is no one absolute right answer. I just hope to give you some reference and help.