Politburo meeting, 11 o'clock detailed interpretation! Next week is expected to return to 3000 points?

Last year, it emphasized "stability" and "security";

This year, we emphasize "progress" and "standing"!

The difference of one word represents a resolute attitude from defense to offense.

As for the relevant statements of next year's economic work, I have broken it down in detail and made a detailed comparison with last year.

General tone of work:

Last year, our slogan was "Seeking Progress While Maintaining Stability", emphasizing "stability".

This year, our new slogan is "Seek progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break down".

These two new terms appeared for the first time and sparked a lot of discussion. In a nutshell, "stability" refers to six stabilization goals: employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment, and expectations.

"Enterprising" refers to high-quality economic development.

Note that "progress" itself is an ongoing tense, so "progress for stability" means that we will place more emphasis on development to maintain stability.

As for "establishing first and then breaking", it means that we will give priority to the development of advanced production capacity, and will not rush to eliminate backward production capacity, so as to avoid negative impact on the economy and employment.

Overall, 2024 will be a year of vigorous economic development.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy:

We will implement a more active and effective fiscal policy and maintain a prudent, flexible and precise monetary policy.

Although the word "moderate" seems to have been weakened, its true meaning will be determined by management on a case-by-case basis.

In terms of monetary policy,

This year's key words are "flexible, moderate, precise and effective", which indicates that we will be flexible in adjusting policies as needed.

But there's a subtext to this,

"We're financially fine!"

spirit

Live moderately, accurately and effectively, listen

Statue of Origin

It's our attitude towards fitness!

Macro Policy and Public Opinion Guidance:

We will strengthen the coherence of macroeconomic policies, and strengthen economic propaganda and public opinion guidance.

This is a new formulation that emphasizes advocacy rather than opinions, and focuses on guidance rather than opposition.

换言之,

"Listen to me."

Industry & Technology:

We will take technological innovation as the guide, build a modern industrial system, and improve the resilience and security of industrial and supply chains.

Compared with last year, this year we are placing more emphasis on scientific and technological innovation, rather than being limited to self-reliance, and becoming more inclusive.

Domestic Demand and Consumption:

We will strive to expand domestic demand and create a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment reinforce each other.

Although this goal is emphasized every year, the actual effect still needs to be improved.

Reforms in key areas:

We will deepen reforms in key areas and inject sustained impetus into high-quality development.

The specific areas involved will be clarified in the follow-up Central Economic Work Conference.

Opening:

We will expand high-level opening-up and consolidate the foundation for foreign trade and foreign investment.

The shift from "promoting" to "expanding" indicates that there will be significant progress in opening up to the outside world next year.

Risk management:

Last year, we focused on "major economic and financial risks".

This year, our focus has shifted to "focus area risks", which indicates that the risks in the economic and financial sectors have been largely resolved, which is good news for the economy and financial markets.

Agriculture, Rural Areas, Ecological Civilization and People's Livelihood:

We will continue to focus on agriculture, ecological civilization and people's livelihood issues, especially in tackling the climate crisis, and we expect new progress.

In summary, for the upcoming meeting, we expect the economy to usher in new developments next year.

While there are not many new additions, the key is how these policies are implemented.

If next week's Central Economic Work Conference delivers more substantive than expected, supported by fiscal policy, we could expect to see equities return to 3,000 points.