The Politburo meeting at the end of the year will be the 10 major economic signals for next year

Author: Zhang Aoping, Economist, President of the Institute of New Quality Future

Source: Zhenghe Island (ID: zhenghedao)

Ten major emphasis on the main text

：

1. The general tone of next year's economic work: adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and implementing the "three overall plans";

2. The three major concerns about the current economy are: economic vitality, risk prevention, and social expectations;

3. Among the "three overall plans", the first is to coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen the supply-side structural reform;

4. "Promoting stability through progress" is different from the expression of "stability first" at the Politburo meeting at the end of last year, and next year's economic work will be more active;

5. "Establish first and then break" reflects the bottom-line thinking to make structural adjustments, which cannot affect the social expectations of economic growth;

6. Macroeconomic policy: fiscal strengthening, quality and efficiency improvement, monetary flexibility, moderation, precision and effectiveness;

7. Building a modern industrial system: Led by scientific and technological innovation, improve the resilience and security of industrial and supply chains;

8. Expanding domestic demand: consumption and investment achieve a virtuous circle of mutual reinforcement;

9. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, which should be held next year, should comprehensively deploy a new round of deepening reform of the economic system and mechanism, and the reform matters involved will also run throughout the year.

10. Risk prevention: The focus is still on small and medium-sized financial institutions, local debt, the real estate market, and the financial market.

On December 8, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2024.

The Politburo meeting is held once a month, and according to the usual April, July, and December Politburo meetings to study the current economic situation and plan the main economic work in the next stage, and are also a window for macro, industrial, and social policies to adjust and guide, which has a decisive impact on the economic trend in the next stage.

Among them, the analysis of next year's economic work at the Politburo meeting in December is the "forward-looking" of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year to deploy next year's economic work.

The following focuses on the key interpretation of the conference in terms of economic work, aiming to clarify the policy direction for entrepreneurs and investors, grasp the context of economic development, and seize the opportunity of future strategic certainty.

The general tone of next year's economic work: adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and implementing the "three overall plans"

In the section on judging the economic situation, first of all, we will clarify the importance and particularity of this year.

The meeting believed that "this year is the first year for the full implementation of the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and a year for economic recovery and development after the three-year transition of new crown epidemic prevention and control".

The meeting, unlike usual, did not mention the difficulties in the functioning of the economy.

The last time it was not mentioned was the Politburo meeting at the end of 2021, when the economy grew by 8.4% year-on-year from a low base in 2020.

In the author's opinion, not directly mentioning difficulties does not mean that there are no worries.

The latter part of the press release emphasizes that "effectively enhancing economic vitality, preventing and defusing risks, and improving social expectations" are the concerns in the current economic operation.

Second, we should fully affirm the achievements in this year's economic work.

The meeting believed that "withstanding external pressure, overcoming internal difficulties, focusing on expanding domestic demand, optimizing the structure, boosting confidence, preventing and resolving risks, the mainland's economy has rebounded for the better, high-quality development has been solidly promoted, important progress has been made in the construction of a modern industrial system, new breakthroughs have been made in scientific and technological innovation, reform and opening up have been promoted in depth, the foundation for safe development has been consolidated and consolidated, people's livelihood has been effectively guaranteed, and solid steps have been taken to build a modern socialist country in an all-round way."

In the author's opinion,

Expanding domestic demand, adjusting the structure, boosting confidence, and guarding against risks have always been the focus of this year's economic work.

Finally, the general tone and overall goals of the meeting's economic work for next year are:

1. Adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability;

2. Completely, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and strive to promote high-quality development;

3. Comprehensively deepen reform and opening up;

4. Promote high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance;

5. Intensify macroeconomic regulation and control;

6. Coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reforms;

7. Coordinate the new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization;

8. Coordinate high-quality development and high-level security, effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, and improve social expectations;

9. Consolidate and strengthen the positive trend of economic recovery, and continue to promote the effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy;

10. Improve people's livelihood and well-being, maintain social stability, and comprehensively promote the great cause of building a strong country and national rejuvenation with Chinese-style modernization.

The author believes that from the perspective of the meeting's overall goal for next year's economic work, the "three overall plans" are the aspects of the current economic work that are easy to take care of one or the other: expanding domestic demand and supply-side structural reform, new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, high-quality development and high-level security.

Among them, the overall expansion of domestic demand and the deepening of supply-side structural reform ranked first in the "three overall plans", the reason is that the economy has been in a weak reality of "oversupply and insufficient demand" for a long time since the beginning of this year.

At this stage, the key to supply-side structural reform is the innovation-driven strategy, and the final result of the supply-side innovation-driven is to produce innovative products, such as new energy vehicles, electronic products, smart homes, etc., but if there is no demand to undertake, it is impossible to achieve economic growth and improve the utility of the residential sector.

In the environment of long-term increasing uncertainty of external demand, the demand-side domestic demand pull and the supply-side innovation drive need to be effectively combined.

Judging from the general tone of next year's economic work, "seeking progress while maintaining stability," the importance of "progress" has increased markedly.

The meeting later pointed out that "next year, we must insist on seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking". Seeking progress while maintaining stability is a continuation of the economic work in the past few years, and "promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking" is a new formulation.

The author believes that "promoting stability through progress" is different from the expression of "stability first" at the Politburo meeting at the end of last year, which reflects that next year's economic work will be more active.

At the same time, "promoting stability through progress" also contains certain requirements for next year's economic growth, and it is expected that the annual economic growth target may be set at a relatively high level of about 5%.

Next year's 5% target is not the same as this year's 5% target, and next year will be an increase from a higher base this year

(Expected to achieve growth of more than 5% this year)

The 5% target for this year is achieved from last year's 3% growth base.

"Establish first and then break" is a policy expression of economic work in terms of supply-side structural adjustment and risk prevention.

as

2021

In the middle of the year, the Politburo meeting proposed in the dual carbon work arrangement that "corrective movement carbon reduction, first establish and then break".

Embodying the bottom-line thinking to make structural adjustments, before the "new" is established, the "old" cannot be broken, and cannot have an impact on the social expectations of economic growth.

Macroeconomic policy: Fiscal policy is moderately strengthened, quality and efficiency are improved, and monetary flexibility is moderate, precise and effective

In the part of macroeconomic policy, the meeting first pointed out that "strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy."

The author believes that counter-cyclical ordering takes precedence over cross-cyclical, reflecting that next year's macro policy will be more effective in expanding demand and smoothing out the fluctuations of the economic cycle.

On July 30, 2020, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to "improve the cross-cycle design and adjustment of macroeconomic regulation and control to achieve a long-term balance between stable growth and risk prevention", and the term "cross-cycle" was proposed for the first time.

The 2021 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that "cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical macroeconomic regulation and control policies should be organically combined", and at the end of October 2023, the Central Financial Work Conference pointed out that "always maintain the soundness of monetary policy and pay more attention to cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment". The ranking is different from this time, and the cross-cycle is before the counter-cycle.

Secondly, the meeting pointed out that "the active fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective".

Compared with the work deployment of this year's macro policy in the government work report in early March, "active fiscal policy should be strengthened to improve efficiency" and "prudent monetary policy should be precise and powerful":

The fiscal policy will continue to be strengthened, but it is necessary to grasp the degree well.

Due to the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds in October this year, the deficit rate increased to 3.8%, breaking the perennial "constraint" of 3%, and it is expected that the central government will continue to increase leverage next year, the fiscal deficit rate will be about 3.5%, and the scale of local government special bonds will be about 3.8 trillion yuan.

Monetary policy also emphasizes precision, and the aggregate level is neutral.

Next year's monetary policy should focus more on supporting the four major directions of "scientific and technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, green development and small, medium and micro enterprises" proposed by the Central Financial Work Conference and the five chapters of "science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance and digital finance".

Finally, the meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, strengthen economic propaganda and public opinion guidance". It can be seen that in the past, the sense of social consensus was poor, and in the future, policy publicity will be strengthened to build consensus.

Building a modern industrial system: Led by scientific and technological innovation, we will improve the resilience and security of industrial and supply chains

In terms of the construction of a modern industrial system, the conference has two major focuses:

1. "It is necessary to lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation";

2. "Improving the resilience and security of industrial and supply chains".

The author believes that in the construction of a modern industrial system, in the future, we will continue to break through scientific and technological innovation to break through the upper limit of value, improve the security level of the industrial chain and supply chain, and keep the bottom line of risks.

In addition, regarding the construction of a modern industrial system, readers should also pay attention to the relevant content of the first meeting of the 20th Central Financial and Economic Commission on "accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system supported by the real economy" on May 5 this year.

The first meeting of the 20th Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized that "promote the intelligent, green and integrated industry, and build a modern industrial system with integrity, advancement and safety", and clarified the five major insistences, "we must adhere to the real economy as the priority, prevent the real from turning into virtual; adhere to the steady progress, step by step, can not be greedy for foreign; adhere to the integration and development of the three industries, avoid separation and confrontation; adhere to the promotion of the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, can not be taken as ' Low-end industries should simply withdraw, adhere to open cooperation, and cannot be done behind closed doors."

Expanding domestic demand: Consumption and investment achieve a virtuous circle that reinforces each other

The meeting pointed out that "efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other."

"Forming a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other" is a new expression, which was stated in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China as "enhancing the fundamental role of consumption in economic development and the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure".

It reflects that in the expansion of domestic demand next year, more attention will be paid to the promotion and conversion between consumption and investment.

For example, affordable housing in real estate investment, urban village renovation and "peacetime and emergency" public infrastructure

(e.g. cultural and tourism infrastructure)

The "three major projects" need to effectively meet and enhance the consumption needs of the residential sector.

Deepening reform and opening up: reforming key areas and consolidating foreign trade and foreign investment

In terms of deepening reform and opening up, the meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to deepen reforms in key areas and continue to inject strong impetus into high-quality development." It is necessary to expand high-level opening up to the outside world and consolidate the basic market of foreign trade and foreign investment."

The author believes that the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, which should be held next year, will comprehensively deploy a new round of deepening reform of the economic system and mechanism, and the reform matters involved will also run throughout the year.

The Third Plenum of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be postponed to 2024 because the Third Plenum of the 20th CPC Central Committee is usually scheduled in advance for the Politburo meeting

(The convention is held in the fourth quarter of the following year)

。

In addition, every even-numbered session of the Third Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will comprehensively deploy the reform of the economic system and mechanism.

Such as the third middle school of the 14th session

(1993)

Establish a socialist market economic system;

(2003)

Improving the Socialist Market Economic System;

(2013)

Comprehensively deepen reform.

It is important to note that the decision documents adopted by the Third Plenum contain long-term business opportunities.

For example, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China deliberated and adopted the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reform, in which the word "allowed" appeared 21 times, including: "allowing the implementation of employee stock ownership in a mixed-ownership economy", "allowing qualified private capital to initiate the establishment of small and medium-sized banks and other financial institutions in accordance with the law", "allowing social capital to participate in the investment and operation of urban infrastructure through franchising and other means".

In terms of "consolidating the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment", a number of policies and work arrangements have been made since November, and we will continue to expand high-level opening-up in the future.

On November 23, the State Council supported Beijing in deepening the opening up of the national service industry, on November 24, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the trial implementation of unilateral visa exemption for six countries, including France, Germany and Italy, and on December 7, the State Council supported the Shanghai Free Trade Zone to promote high-level institutional opening-up.

Risk prevention: Continuously and effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas

Regarding the prevention and resolution of economic risks, the meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to continue to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and resolutely adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risks".

The author believes that next year's prevention and resolution of economic risks will focus on the four major directions pointed out in the Central Financial Work Conference at the end of October: small and medium-sized financial institutions, local debt, real estate market, and financial market.

People's livelihood: Promote urban-rural integration, coordinated regional development, green and low-carbon development, and build a beautiful China

In terms of people's livelihood work, the meeting has three major priorities:

1. "We must make unremitting efforts to do a good job in the 'three rural' work, and promote the integration of urban and rural areas and the coordinated development of regions";

2. "It is necessary to further promote the construction of ecological civilization and green and low-carbon development, and accelerate the construction of a beautiful China";

3. "We must do our best and do what we can to effectively protect and improve people's livelihood."

In addition, the meeting emphasized, among other aspects of its work:

1. "It is necessary to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price stability of important livelihood commodities during the 'two festivals'";

2. "Ensure that migrant workers' wages are paid on time and in full, and care for the production and life of the people in difficulty";

3. "Thoroughly implement the responsibility system for safe production, and protect the safety of people's lives and property and health".

On the whole, although there are many new proposals for the Politburo meeting at the end of the year, the length is relatively short. Based on past experience, when the Politburo meeting is shorter, the central economic work will be longer, and more policy details will be presented at the Central Economic Work Conference

(Scheduled to be held next week)

, then the author will make a detailed interpretation.

The author, Zhang Aoping, is an economist,

New quality

Director of the Institute for the Future.

At the same time, he is also the vice chairman of the Science and Technology Innovation Industry Special Committee of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, a special expert of the People's Daily Venture Capital Expert Advisory Committee, a special economic consultant of Shandong Youth Enterprise Association, Shandong Private Equity Investment Fund Industry Association, Xinxiang Entrepreneur Federation, etc., a special researcher of Shandong Finance Investment Group Research Institute, a consultant of Guangzhou Tianhe District Service Center for Promoting Private Economic Development, an expert member of Zhongguancun Digital Cultural Industry Think Tank, the chief economist of Vietnam Construction Securities China, and a consultant of Zhenghe Island Capital Service Center.

2021

He was awarded the "Young Economist" of the Nankai Financial Chief Economist Forum;

2022

He was awarded the "Young Financial Thinker" by CBN.

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