If we want to find the path to explosive growth, we must recognize the essence of "growth hacking". So, what is the core of growth? How to find the so-called "North Star indicator"? Regarding the question of user growth, in this article, the author shares his views with case studies, so you might as well take a look.
Introduction: Many people think that growth equals fission, if you find a good fission method can grow explosively (the story is told like this), many startup bosses follow the trend to set up a growth department, forcing the growth department to achieve a monthly 50%, 100%, 200% growth target in a short time, this approach is tantamount to buying a lottery ticket to try your luck, so we must recognize the essence of "growth hacking".
Growth is a systematic methodology, which is based on the North Star indicator, demand model construction, demand sampling and demand accuracy proofreading, market competition analysis, growth model estimation, A/B experiment, AARRR model, user behavior and preference prediction, multi-scenario precision marketing, MVP model experiment, best practice replication, multi-team SOP and training system construction, positive and negative feedback mechanism, optimization demand matching and other complete methodology and growth model construction system.
What is the core of growth? Different people stand in different positions and have different views on growth, but I think that regardless of personal identity, "growth" represents both <产品的长期价值>user value and business value.
The growth index should be a performance indicator, but should be measured and set by the goal, the <产品长期价值>business value brought by the user-centered, to provide the user with the most needed, the most core to him, through "altruism" and self-achievement. "Self-interest is born, altruism is long-term" with "altruistic" thinking to manage products, the cause can go further.
The above is more abstract, take an actual case around you, in 2010-2014 China's Internet staged a hundred group war, taking the business model of group buying as an example, what is the essence of group buying in the 2010-2014 period?
——The essence of group buying is to provide cheap, convenient and safe life services for "target users" without discrimination. (Note: Growth metrics will change over time depending on the market environment and competitors.)
So who are the target users of group buying?
The answer is a group of young users aged 20-28, what are the characteristics of the portrait of this user? The young group is in the stage of college or college graduation and just working, likes group activities such as dinner parties and dating, and does not have much savings, so they belong to the price-sensitive group.
The above is the basic portrait of this group, so what is the group list that this portrait group is most interested in? I checked the group order sales data near Nanjing Xianlin (University Town, in line with the characteristics of people aged 20-28).
Editor's note: Why is the buffet, cinema, KTV these three types of group orders prone to explosions? The core is to meet the needs of undifferentiated service, dinners, and affordable target users for dating.
If you go back to 2010-2014, you are the CEO of a group buying, and you get 100 million yuan in financing, how do you set your user growth goals?
Question 1: Will you choose a cheap cafeteria, KTV, and cinema with a unit price of 30 yuan to 50 yuan, or will you choose South Beauty, Money Leopard, and luxury clubs with a unit price of more than 200 yuan?
Through the case, the core of the matching of the user's needs is the matching of the product (SKU) and the user's needs, and it is the SKU that meets the user's interest, rather than the brand or store (Zhongshan International Golf Hotel as an example, the 4280 yuan package is sold only 5 throughout the year), and the user demand portrait must be portrayed to the commodity dimension.
When the product has a target user and a clear positioning, the North Star indicator is especially important.
Question 2: When you decide to do a marketing strategy:
- Will you choose to concentrate on the penetration of advantageous areas, or will you choose to spread the net and cover the large-scale cities in a big way?
- Will you choose to put large-scale advertisements in subways, car bodies, and elevator buildings to quickly increase your popularity, or will you choose to subsidize users with market fees and do word-of-mouth marketing?
When you are in the entrepreneurial stage, which belongs to the weak stage, the basic strategies you should take:
Lanchester Combat Model:
Lanchester's Law:
Differentiated operations can be considered from six aspects: 4P + service + region:
- Product: Functional differentiation and competition of products;
- price promotion;
- Place through a combination of direct sales, channels, online and offline;
- Promotion: communication and reach channels and copywriting accuracy;
- Services include after-sales, membership, rights and interests;
- Region: Concentrate human, material, and financial resources to compete in key regions.
Target setting:
- 25% = the lower limit of the target value of market share, the minimum condition for becoming a strong player in the region, when this market share is reached, there is a chance to become the first in the market.
- 40% = market share target stable value, when you reach this target value, you will truly become the number one in the market.
- 75% = Upper limit of the target value, when you reach this target value, you become a landslide winner, and the second place cannot be reversed.
Case (SKU penetration analysis of a fresh e-commerce market) Note: Non-real data:
To analyze your North Star metric, you need to understand some common metric dimensions for marketplaces.
1. GMV = traffic * conversion rate * order value
Flow rate:
- Online traffic (shopping guide, advertising, search, app market, sharing, direct login);
- Offline traffic (channel promotion, local promotion, print advertising).
Conversion Rate:
banner conversion rate, activity conversion rate, category conversion rate, search conversion rate, order submission conversion rate, card binding conversion rate, payment conversion rate) and other funnel conversion rates at all levels.
Flush rate:
Churn funnel for searching, browsing, add-on, ordering, and payment.
- Average order value = GMV/Number of paying users
- Average order price = GMV/number of orders paid
2. APRU
ARPU (monthly contribution of a customer) = average customer price (number of SKUs * SKU unit price) × frequency
The core of the order value & frequency impact factor is the number of SKUs (these are the process indicators for analyzing growth).
3. Gross margin = (sales revenue - cost of sales) / sales revenue × 100%
4. ROI
- ROI = sales amount / investment amount
- 销售金额=UV*转化率*ARPU
- Input amount = UV * [Cost per user acquisition (CAC) + Cost per user (COC)]
The representative products are e-commerce, knowledge payment, shared taxi, etc.
Annotation:
- The data in this article are public or simulated data of the market, not real data
- In the book, Lanchester's Law quotes the book "No.1 Law" by Hitoshi Sakagami
This article was originally published by @闯爷 on Everyone is a Product Manager. Reproduction without permission is prohibited
The title image is from Unsplash and is licensed under CC0
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