Who is a "fast horse" in industrial development in 2023?
In the past year, the tourism industry has entered a recovery phase, not only with high growth rate, but also with the continuous development of catering, retail and other industries.
The current acceleration is inevitable under market demand, and it is also the result of the industry's aggressive and continuous innovation. Not only tourism, but also cultural and creative, catering, liquor and other industries are also under the new wave, with a state of self-innovation, continue to climb one wave after another, and even become the "helmsman".
However, in the fight against the economic tide, the boat is sailing against the current, and if you do not advance, you will retreat. Next, how to maintain the momentum of attack and achieve industrial upgrading is also a challenge that the industry must think about and meet. From stability to progress, to "further", do not be satisfied with the current achievements, but always grasp the oars of "innovation".
Fast forward ▶ ▷
With the help of policies, the market continues to heat up
Since the beginning of this year, the national tourism market has been generally active. According to the data of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, in the first three quarters of this year, the total number of domestic tourists was 3.674 billion, a year-on-year increase of 75.5%, and the total domestic travel expenditure of residents was 3.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.4%. The comprehensive contribution of tourism to GDP during the holiday period was 4.04%, although it did not recover to the proportion of 4.56% in 2019, but compared with 3.96% in 2021, the recovery effect is significant.
The data on holidays such as the Spring Festival, May Day, and National Day are even more impressive. Taking the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day as examples, the number of domestic tourists nationwide during this period was 826 million, an increase of 4.1% over 2019, and the domestic tourism revenue reached 753.43 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5% over 2019, making it the "hottest Golden Week" in history.
Under the hot market, tourism enterprises have also ushered in the "spring" of rapid growth. In the first three quarters of this year, travel agencies such as Zhongxin Tourism and Lingnan Holdings turned losses into profits, and hotel groups such as Jin Jiang and BTG also saw significant profit growth. Compared with 2019, scenic spots such as Jiuhua Tourism, Changbai Mountain, and Huangshan Tourism have achieved both revenue and profit growth.
The hot tourism market is the result of the urgent release of travel demand during the epidemic and the help of policies. In the past year, a series of documents such as the State Council's "Several Measures to Unleash the Potential of Tourism Consumption and Promote the High-quality Development of the Tourism Industry" and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's "Domestic Tourism Promotion Plan (2023-2025)" have been issued one after another, which have become the engine to boost the rapid and high-quality development of cultural tourism, and also provide direction for the reform of key areas of the industry.
In 2023, with the relaxation of policies and the increase in international flights, the demand for inbound and outbound tourism will continue to be released, and the inbound and outbound market will also show a steady upward trend.
In terms of outbound travel, from February 6, China will resume the "flight + wine" service for outbound group tours for Chinese citizens on a pilot basis, with destinations involving 20 countries. Since then, the second and third batches of lists have also been announced in March and August, and 138 countries and regions have resumed outbound group tours and "air ticket + hotel" business, and China has once again become an important source of international tourism.
In contrast, inbound tourism has been slow to recover, but it also shows great potential. At the end of November this year, China's visa-free policy for six countries was released, and the search data for tourism to China in relevant destinations showed a significant increase. CICC estimates that if the consumption of inbound tourists recovers to 90% of 2019 in 2024, it may drive the growth rate of exports by an additional 1.6 percentage points and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods by 0.2 percentage points.
Advanced ▶▷
New supply becomes the "engine" of consumption power
How to meet the needs of the new generation and create a unique tourism attraction has become a new challenge. To "enter", it is necessary to be "new" - not only from the demand side, focusing on the new demand and new trends of personalized, high-quality and diversified consumption, but also from the supply side of innovation, and constantly respond to market expectations with new products and new services.
This year, more and more market players have begun to explore new products, new scenarios and new formats to accelerate the upgrading of the tourism industry.
The emergence of "tourism +" has become a "pulling force" for rapid growth. Since 2023, a number of travel hotspots such as "tourism + events" and "tourism + countryside" have emerged across the country. In the past, Zibo was "out of the circle" with characteristic barbecue, and then there were "village BA" and "village super" relying on characteristics to build cultural tourism brands, and self-driving tours, health and wellness tours, and smart tours have also become popular.
In addition to traditional scenic spots, concerts have also become an important "engine" for tourism consumption in related cities. Taking the summer tourism season as an example, the number of performances, box office revenue and the number of spectators in the summer tourism and performing arts in 2023 will increase by 235.34%, 496.20% and 717.85% respectively compared with the same period last year. According to the ticket booking data of the Tongcheng Travel platform, the number of visitors to the park attracted by the performances held in key scenic spots across the country in the summer increased by about 60% year-on-year, which was significantly higher than the overall passenger flow of scenic spots across the country.
The rise of the night tourism economy has extended tourism consumption in time and space. From creative night markets, theme markets, to outdoor immersive dance dramas and light shows, the integration of night tours, business districts, culture and art has created a more diverse and comprehensive consumption experience, making Generation Z, who are keen on new things, the main consumer force. From Guangdong alone, the data shows that in the first half of 2023, the proportion of nighttime cultural tourism consumption expenditure in Guangdong Province will be 61.62% of the all-day cultural tourism consumption expenditure, and the vitality of nighttime cultural tourism consumption has exceeded that of daytime.
Attack ▶▷
Accelerate industrial upgrading with innovation
A series of industries related to cultural tourism have also burst out of "entering" vitality this year, such as cultural creativity. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, the added value of cultural and related industries in the country will reach 5,123.4 billion yuan, an increase of 15.5% over the previous year, accounting for 4.8% of GDP. In the past year, the sales revenue of museums and cultural centers in many places has doubled, and the cultural and creative products developed in combination with festivals have become popular. Jingdong data shows that the sales of the Year of the Dragon calendar have been growing recently, especially the cultural and creative calendar, of which the 2024 calligraphy and painting version of the Forbidden City calendar has increased by 50% month-on-month.
Another example is catering. On December 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national economic consumption data for November. From January to November this year, the national catering revenue was 4,748.5 billion yuan, an increase of 19.4%, and the income has exceeded that of 2022.
The catering market is particularly prominent when the demand for holiday travel soars. During this year's National Day Mid-Autumn Festival, the Ministry of Commerce focused on monitoring the sales of catering enterprises increased by nearly two percent year-on-year, especially the new tea drink was particularly popular. For example, the sales of Hey Tea stores across the country ushered in explosive growth, with the sales of many stores increasing by 500% month-on-month compared with the pre-holiday period, and the tea stores of Nai Xue, the head of another new tea drink, sold more than 10 million cups of tea drinks nationwide, and the stores in many places increased by more than 500% compared with the pre-holiday period, and the online takeaway orders in some cities increased by more than 200%.
Under the new demand, the acceleration of industrial upgrading is also the liquor industry. How to meet and lead the creation of liquor consumption demand has become the key to the high-quality development of liquor enterprises after the epidemic. In order to "trap" young consumer groups, innovative cases with a high degree of topic frequently "swipe", including "liquor + drink", "liquor + dessert" and "liquor + n", from ice cream, coffee, chocolate to cocktails, Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu and other leading liquor companies are vying to be the first to enter the game.
With the concept of "drinking less and drinking better" deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, high-end liquor has also shown considerable growth momentum. In the first three quarters of this year, 20 listed liquor companies performed well, achieving a total revenue of 311.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.91%, and a total net profit attributable to the parent company of 118.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.92%. Profit growth is faster than revenue growth, and high-quality growth is achieved. Kweichow Moutai, a leading enterprise in the industry, has raised prices, fully releasing profit space and boosting industry confidence.
"Progress" is not only the current state, but also the trend of the future. Looking forward to 2024, industry experts and scholars believe that the cultural tourism, catering and other industries "go further" is the future, but this time we must look forward - for example, Dai Bin, president of the China Tourism Academy, pointed out that from next year, "return to a certain level in 2019" will become a historical term. The release of tourism market data and key economic indicators will only be able to do the year-on-year comparison with today.
Southern + reporters Ye Qihan, Li Jie, Huang Xiaoyun
【Authors】 Ye Qihan, Li Jie, Huang Xiaoyun
Southern Industry Think Tank