"New Hope" is in the midst of a catastrophe, and hope is ahead?

Since "Liu Chang" took over as chairman in 2013, 10 years have passed in the blink of an eye.

I'm sure it will not be easy for her in the past ten years.

At the beginning of his ascension, how to take over such a huge listed company must have been nerve-wracking.

It was finally completely controlled, and by 2020, it will expand the pig business in a big way, but it has lost money for three consecutive years, and the outside world is full of doubts.

However, the mature Liu Chang still seems to be very strong, and in 2023, he will sound the clarion call of "the battle of winter, that is, the battle of survival".

Of course, she knows what she is facing, and she knows that New Hope has encountered unprecedented difficulties, and the difficulties have risen to the level of "survival".

So can this post-80s female chairman lead New Hope to win this battle for survival?

1. The battle for survival

Is New Hope really at stake?

Of course not, as the saying goes, a skinny camel is bigger than a horse, and New Hope's family is not thin.

But it is also true that it is very difficult, with a loss of 9.5 billion in 2021, a loss of 1.9 billion in 2022, and a loss of 4.5 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

It means that it has lost 15.9 billion in the past three years, which is not a small amount, and if the price of commercial pigs in the fourth quarter of 2023 hits a new low for the whole year, it will inevitably be a loss.

Therefore, the loss in these three years exceeded the sum of the net profit in the four years of 2016~2020.

I have to say that the situation is indeed very serious, and the price of hogs is still low.

Since the peak of 17.61 yuan/kg in August 2023, it has been falling, and it even fell to 13.43 yuan/kg in the first half of this month.

In this kind of market, not only is New Hope sad, but in fact, the three giants of pig breeding are difficult.

Muyuan shares are relatively the most comfortable, because there will be no losses in 2021 and 2022, but a loss of 1.679 billion in 2023, and a profit of 1.1 billion in the third quarter, but a loss in the first half of 2023.

Wen's shares also lost 13.548 billion in 2021, another 4.59 billion in the third quarter of 2023, and 250 million in the third quarter.

In this way, Wen's has lost a total of 18.138 billion in the past three years, which is 2.2 billion higher than New Hope.

Although they are all difficult brothers, the reasons for the losses are still different.

Many people simply attribute the reason to the price of live pigs, of course, this is a big reason, when the price of pork is very good, of course, it is enough to cover up all the shortcomings, anyway, you can make money, when the price of pork is very low, none of them can run, all of them are lost.

But in addition, each company also has its own reasons.

For example, Wen's cooperative farmers have always accounted for a high proportion, although the financial pressure will be a little less, but the cost and anti-risk ability are not as good as self-breeding.

Another example is that New Hope expanded production too quickly in the past few years, and the management failed to keep up, so others lost and he lost, and others still lost money.

It is precisely because of this that Liu Chang wrote a letter to all employees during the Mid-Autumn Festival last year.

First paragraph:

"Raw material prices fluctuate frequently, pig prices continue to be sluggish, social inventories are high, terminal consumption is weak, and various external passive factors have put the company in an unprecedented difficult environment. ”

Second paragraph:

"We've said goodbye to the incremental era. In such an external passive situation, what we can do is to further improve efficiency and further control costs to maintain the company's competitiveness. The continuous pursuit of net profit is the most important and core task in the current strategy and tactics!"

Third paragraph:

"When the industry survives the winter, we must first believe that the agriculture and animal husbandry we are engaged in has its natural laws and vitality, and it is destined to be endless. ”

The first paragraph is external reasons, which are decent, and many industries have this impact, not just the pig industry.

Moreover, in the general environment, all enterprises are fair, and it is not a difficulty that only New Hope has.

The second paragraph is for its own reasons, the meaning is in place, but the words are not sincere enough, probably for the sake of face.

To put it bluntly, the management is not in place, and the cost is not well controlled, so it is necessary to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

I don't think it's anything, the Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty was a generation of heroes, introspective in his later years, promulgated the "Luntai Edict", and directly admitted his mistakes.

There is no perfect enterprise, and no one does not make mistakes, it doesn't matter if there is a problem, it is a good thing to be brave enough to admit it and strive to improve.

But as a girl who loves beauty, it's normal to be shy.

For this battle for survival, Liu Chang is indeed struggling hard.

First of all, from the management point of view, the establishment of the "pig BG" began to pay more attention to the front line, which is a major adjustment of the organizational structure.

From the perspective of cost control, there are many details, such as starting from the second half of 2023, the executives led by Liu Chang will no longer pay salaries, and the internal dinner should be simple, and no more Moutai is allowed.

Another example is the headquarters in Beijing, which was originally a two-story building, but was reduced to half a floor.

There are many other such administrative measures to reduce spending, and although each of them may not be large, mosquito legs are also meat.

Judging from these attitudes and ways of solving problems, Liu Chang has matured.

I think the sign of a person's maturity is the ability to face problems head-on and the courage to survive with broken arms.

In addition to reducing costs and increasing efficiency internally, New Hope has also made a lot of trade-offs, typical of which is to sell assets to recover funds.

2. Slim down for the winter

Since the asset-liability ratio exceeded 50% in 2020, New Hope has been under increasing financial pressure due to continuous losses, resulting in a debt ratio of 72.76% now.

With such a high debt, the net operating cash flow is only a few billion, which makes the cash on the books very tight.

Therefore, starting in 2022, New Hope has started the "slimming plan" and continues to sell its assets.

There are as many as four large sales alone.

First of all, the announcement was made on December 27, 2022:

11 pig farms under construction in Sichuan and Chongqing were sold to Xingxinxin Agriculture and Animal Husbandry at a price of 927 million.

And it includes about 430 million equity prices and about 497 million debts.

New Hope is a shareholder of "Xingxinxin Agriculture and Animal Husbandry", Chengdu Tianfu Rural Development Group holds 60% of the shares, which is a state-owned enterprise, and New Hope holds 40% of the shares.

Originally, it was planned to cooperate in breeding, but New Hope not only did not have the money to continue to invest, but also urgently needed funds.

So the equity and debt of these 11 pig farms were sold, and the return was 927 million.

Then four months later, it was still this "Xingxinxin agriculture and animal husbandry".

This time, it was 7 pig farms in the Sichuan-Chongqing area, which were transferred at a price of 1.317 billion.

This transfer is a bit more complicated, because it involves guarantees, and it is recommended to read the original text of the announcement carefully.

Then in December 2023, two more projects were sold.

The first is the food processing project.

New Hope sold 67% of the equity of its subsidiary "Deyang New Hope" to "Hainan Shengchen" at a price of about 1.5 billion.

In fact, Hainan Shengchen is also a 100% owned subsidiary of New Hope, and it is only an investment platform, and it does not actually operate a business.

Deyang New Hope was originally a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wuliangye, and in 2021, it was sold to New Hope at a price of 61.02 million, mainly for food deep processing.

Then on the same day, there was a fourth sale announcement.

This transaction is that New Hope sold 51% of the equity of "Zhongxin Food" to "China Animal Husbandry Group" at a price of about 2.7 billion.

The announcement is about "introducing strategic investors", which is indeed true, the two companies are not related, and it is a real sale.

The total amount of the above four sale projects is about 6.4 billion.

Judging from the details of the transaction, the New Hope listed company is equivalent to cutting the food processing business, part of which was given to New Hope Group and part of it was given to new investors.

It means that New Hope Liuhe, a listed company, will only have two major businesses in the future: feed and pig raising.

Judging from the performance structure of previous years, these two pieces are also the majority.

According to the data of 2022, the feed revenue is 79.2 billion and the pig industry revenue is 22.4 billion, with a total of 101.6 billion.

It means that after cutting those projects, New Hope is still a giant enterprise with a revenue of 100 billion yuan.

In addition to the sale of 18 pig farms, a large number of pig farms were also surrendered.

New Hope's rapid expansion model is "self-built + leased", otherwise the speed would not be so fast.

In 2019, New Hope's pig slaughter was only 3.55 million heads, which soared to 8.29 million in 2020, and the number of live pigs sold in 2023 will be as high as 17.68 million heads.

With such a rapid growth rate, it is definitely too late to build a self-built pig farm, so from 2022 onwards, New Hope has adopted the "Sanqi model", with 70% renting and free-range, and only 30% self-raising.

With so many farms renting back, the rent is undoubtedly a big expense.

Therefore, 178 pig farms were surrendered in 2022, and 41 were surrendered in the first three quarters of 2023.

Of course, the surrender of the lease is not entirely the reason for the reduction of expenses, because New Hope's current production capacity is about 5 million heads, and the capacity utilization rate is only half.

The other half has just been built not long ago and is ready to be put into use.

Three years ago, New Hope's slogan was "40 million heads slaughtered annually", but from 2023 onwards, it will no longer pursue the slaughter target.

In fact, it will not be possible to accomplish this goal in a short period of time.

Even if the farm is not sold and the lease is not surrendered, it is unrealistic to reach 40 million heads, which means that the scale will have to be doubled.

It is not an easy thing to make back the loss of more than 10 billion yuan.

Therefore, after this weight loss, New Hope's slaughter volume for a long period of time in the future should not exceed 20 million heads.

3. Current situation

New Hope's current difficulties are real, and the capital market has also given corresponding treatment.

Before 2019, the company's stock price only fluctuated slightly below 10 yuan, but by 2020, it was as high as 42 yuan at its peak, a fourfold increase in such a short period of time.

For a while, the scenery was unlimited, and the market value was close to 200 billion.

However, now it has fallen to only 38.6 billion, which cannot be described as miserable.

But judging from a recent public interview with founder "Liu Hanyuan", New Hope does not seem to be as exaggerated as the outside world thinks.

In fact, he has said more than once:

"New Hope will not fall, will not lie flat, will not be anxious, and New Hope will live to be 120 years old. ”

Whether New Hope can live to be 120 years old, I definitely don't know, but it won't go out of business in a short period of time, for two reasons.

The first one is Liu Yonghao's own words, he said:

"Many companies say that they want to "twist the towel", and there is always water when the towel is twisted, and there is water to get through. In contrast, we may be a bath towel, which has been developed for more than 40 years to store more water. ”

Although this sentence came from Liu Yonghao's mouth, there is a suspicion of boasting, but New Hope's family background, there is no doubt about it, it must be thicker than the outside world thinks.

So I don't know if it's a bath towel, but the towel is definitely fine.

The second is the message from the January 2024 investor relations event.

I watched the whole communication process, and there are a few important messages.

Ask:

How is the production?

Answer:

PSY increased from 21 to 25 at the beginning of the year, and the weaning cost dropped from more than 400 yuan at the beginning of the year to 334 yuan/head.

Ask:

What are the slaughter planning and cost targets for 2024?

Answer:

The average cost is expected to drop to 15.5 yuan/kg.

However, I didn't answer the slaughter target.

Ask:

What about cost improvements?

Answer:

The cost of reproduction of sows has dropped from 4500 ~ 4600 yuan / head at the beginning of the year to 2800 yuan / head, and it is planned to reduce to 2500 yuan / head next year, and the net value of the stock of sows has been reduced from about 4700 yuan / head at the beginning of the year to 3200 yuan / head, so the amortization cost of sows in the cost of weaned piglets in the future will drop by 0.3 yuan / kg, and the cost of breeding pigs will be reduced by 0.8 ~ 1 yuan / kg.

Ask:

What is the debt repayment pressure?

Answer:

The company's annual operating net cash flow is 6.7 billion yuan in 1~9 months, and it is expected to be more than 10 billion yuan in 2023, and the amount of monetary funds is about 9 billion, so it can meet the production and operation.

There is no direct answer to whether there is pressure or not, so you can default to pressure, just look at the picture below.

Ask:

What are the sources of cash inflow?

Answer:

1. The cash cost of the company's pig raising is still low enough, and now it will not lose cash, and the feed business and Minsheng Bank's dividends will bring positive cash inflows, and the net cash inflow this year is about 8 billion.

2. The delivery of the white feather meat and poultry and food deep processing stripping transactions, by 2024, all the payments will be paid, which will probably bring a net inflow of 20~3 billion yuan.

3. There are already some clear trading plans for the disposal of idle pig farms, and in 2024, with the reversal of the pig cycle, the counterparty's willingness to trade will be stronger, and there should be a corresponding landing, and there will be some net inflow of funds in this part.

4. Improving efficiency and reducing costs can save about 6~7 billion. Coupled with the previous monetary cash of 11 billion, it is enough to support it in the next two years.

The cash inflow in these aspects should be about 8 billion ~ 10 billion, plus the previous monetary cash of 11 billion, which is enough to support in the next two years.

This source of cash inflow, except for the third point of disposal restriction farm, is reliable.

However, this third point also reveals two pieces of information, the first company believes that the pig cycle will reverse in 2024, and the second will still sell some pig farms even if it reverses.

Whether it will be reversed is uncertain, no one knows, it is dynamic, such a resolute pig farm, it seems that New Hope has indeed put all its energy on the "battle for survival", and it will come back to life first.

So can about 20 billion in cash last for 2 years?

If you just look at the size of the debt, it certainly can't.

As of the third quarter of 2023, the total liabilities are nearly 97 billion, and even the current liabilities are 57.76 billion, which is certainly not enough.

So the key is whether the loan can be "renewed", as long as the credit line is fine, then the vast majority of the debt can be left alone, anyway, the rolling is, nothing more than to pay about 2 billion financial expenses per year, which is nothing compared to life and death.

So the big question is how much more will you lose? Because that's what eats up cash flow the most.

Don't think that losses will only be reflected in the income statement, the essence of business is to make money to have cash that can be put in your pocket, otherwise it is a financial game.

Especially for a new hope that has been losing money for three consecutive years, it needs profit margins even more, and if it continues to lose money, its cash flow will get worse and worse.

Under what circumstances can it last for 2 years?

Very simply, it is only possible when the pig price is above 15.5 yuan/kg.

Because it is expected that the slaughter cost will drop to 15.5 yuan/kg in 2024, if you want to make a profit, of course, you must be higher than this price.

Then let's wait and see if the second senior brother will fly in 2024.

Fourth, summary

In fact, this round of pig cycle should have ended a long time ago, and it is simply a record-breaking length.

The reason is also very simple, why is there a pig cycle?

Because when the price of pigs is good, everyone is trying to raise pigs, raising more supply than demand, pig prices falling, everyone loses money and does not raise, the inventory is exhausted and the supply is less than demand, the price of pigs rises, and everyone begins to raise hard.

In the past, it was such a process, and it was always reincarnated, and each cycle was 3~4 years.

But this round started in 2018, it has been more than 5 years, and there is no sign of an end, what is the reason for this?

In fact, it is caused by the giants themselves, and each one wants to expand counter-cyclically.

Why did New Hope choose to expand production in previous years, and so crazy?

Don't think it's an impulsive decision made by patting your head, it must have been calculated a lot.

But when everyone calculates like this, and then they all have the idea of countercyclical expansion, that's the end of it.

When it was supposed to go to production capacity, some farmers did not raise it because they lost money, but these giants expanded their production too much, and they made up for this part of the removed production capacity.

Therefore, in fact, the production capacity of this round of pig cycle has not decreased, which means that the supply has been oversupply, how can the price of pigs rise.

At this time, you can only boil, who can't hold on, who withdraws, and then vacate the production capacity and return to the normal track of the pig cycle.

Obviously, New Hope can't hold on to it now, so it's not expanding.

But it's useless not to expand production, you have to reduce production.

I don't know, investors asked about the 2024 slaughter plan, but they didn't answer positively.

But this can't be hidden, anyway, every month to publish a bulletin on pig sales, after a few months to read a few more briefings.

In my opinion, it is no problem for New Hope to survive the past, even if the pig price is still not ideal in 2024, even if it continues to lose money, as long as it is not too outrageous, with the foundation of New Hope Group, the pressure bearing capacity is much stronger than many people think.

However, for the 43-year-old Liu Chang, it is undoubtedly a big challenge.

If this battle for survival is won, then whether it is within New Hope or in the eyes of outsiders, the status will be completely solidified, and no one will say the second-generation princess, but become the real Liu Dong.

Liu Chang said: "This winter battle is a battle for survival, and hope lies ahead. ”

Now the entire pig industry is "crossing the catastrophe", which is not necessarily a bad thing, as written in the novel, the success of the catastrophe is to go to the next level.

Then for the capital market, the attitude must be a 180-degree reversal!

But if the tribulation fails, under the rolling thunder tribulation, it will be miserable!

Other views on New Hope Liuhe are placed under the column article.

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