For the matter of having children, some people insist on not marrying and having children to ensure safety, and some people use cats and dogs to replace their children, and Cantonese people will probably say: No need to urge, we will take the initiative to give birth.
Many people's impression of Guangdong is: as the pioneer of reform and opening up, it not only dares to fight for the cause, but also dares to fight for the second and third children.
The data confirms this. In 2023, Guangdong Province ranked first in the country with an increase of 1.03 million births, far ahead of other provinces [1]. In other words, one out of every nine newborns in China dies in Guangdong [2].
Why are Cantonese people so willing to have children? Will China's fertility depend on Guangdong in the future?
The national fertility atlas is the most eye-catching in Guangdong
In fact, Guangdong Province has always been very able. According to the Guangdong Provincial Statistical Yearbook, Guangdong Province has had more than one million births for more than 40 consecutive years [3].
Especially today, when the number of births in the country has been declining for seven consecutive years, Guangdong Province still maintains a relatively high enthusiasm for childbirth [4][5].
From a horizontal point of view, Guangdong Province is not only the most populous province, but also has the highest number of births, 335,000 and 420,000 more than Henan and Shandong provinces, respectively.
In the memory of many people, Shandong Province was once the "most daring" province in the country. However, since it was overtaken by Guangdong in 2018, the hat of the largest fertility province has fallen to Guangdong, and it has been re-elected for six consecutive years [3][6].
Although some regions do not publish accurate birth figures, overall, the number of births in the three eastern provinces is smaller, and the southwest F4, which includes Guizhou, Sichuan, and Yunnan, is clearly more willing to have children.
Some people may say that Guangdong's birth population is huge, and it is the light of 127 million permanent residents. Indeed, the total permanent population of Guangdong Province has remained the first in the country for many years, which is one of its major advantages.
To know the true fertility intention and level of Guangdong Province, it is more appropriate to use indicators such as birth rate or fertility rate [7].
The birth rate is the ratio of the number of births to the average number of births in a given period of time (usually a year) [8]. In 2022, Guangdong Province had a birth rate of 8.3 per thousand, ranking eighth among the 31 provincial-level administrative regions.
This year, the figure dropped slightly to 8.12 per thousand, but surpassed Gansu and Guangxi. Even with Tibet and Ningxia, for which no new data has yet been released, Guangdong's birth rate has risen in the ranking.
Especially in the context of the birth rate of most parts of the country below the average of 6.39‰, Guangdong people are particularly capable of giving birth.
In general, economic growth affects the birth rate of the population, for example, for every 1% increase in GDP per capita, the birth rate decreases by 0.06% [9]. The birth rate in all regions of China also conforms to this pattern as a whole, with the underdeveloped areas being higher than the developed regions and the western regions being higher than the coastal areas.
Guangdong is a bug-like existence, not only has a large economic aggregate, but also has a high per capita GDP, with a per capita GDP of about 107,000 yuan in 2023 [1]. As a major coastal economic province, the reason why Guangdong's birth population can lead the country is closely related to the "imbalance" within the province.
Why Guangdong is keen to have babies
From the perspective of the internal structure of Guangdong Province, although the birth rate of each subordinate municipality is higher than the national average of 6.77‰ that year, there is still a large gap between the beginning and the end.
In 2022, the top five provinces with the highest birth rates in Guangdong Province are Dongguan, Shantou, Foshan, Guangzhou, and Jieyang, all of which exceed 10‰. Among them, Dongguan, Foshan and Guangzhou are part of the Pearl River Delta region, while Shantou and Jieyang belong to the Chaoshan region.
For a long time, the Chaoshan area has been famous for its strong clan concept and emphasis on inheritance. As early as the last century, the Institute of Population Studies of the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences paid attention to this historical and cultural tradition: even though it was at the forefront of reform and opening up, the concept of having more children and more blessings and favoring boys was still deeply rooted [10].
A study by the Guangdong Provincial Population and Family Planning Commission and Sun Yat-sen University showed that traditional conceptions of fertility do affect actual fertility intentions and behaviors [11].
Although the birth rate in the Chaoshan region has been declining in recent years, the traditional ideology and culture of Canton are still playing a role [12].
The other two main birth forces, Dongguan and Guangzhou, with birth rates of 11.03 and 10.71 per thousand respectively, are still strong, largely due to the huge size of the population and the younger age structure of the population.
In the seventh population census, Dongguan and Shenzhen ranked the top two in terms of the proportion of working-age population with 83% and 82% respectively, while Zhongshan, Guangzhou and Foshan tied for third place with 78%.
In fact, fertility in these areas is not high. In 2020, the top three fertility rates in Guangdong were Dongguan, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, with 1.04 per thousand, 1.06 per thousand, and 1.14 per thousand, respectively [13].
Unlike the birth rate, the fertility rate is the ratio of the number of births to the number of women of childbearing age in a given period, excluding the interference of males and females of childbearing age. The so-called women of childbearing age are actually women between the ages of 15 and 49, and they are the core subjects that affect fertility [7].
To put it simply, the birth rate is a product of the combined effect of the fertility rate of women and the proportion of women of childbearing age, and sometimes only roughly reflects the fertility level of a country or region [7]. Therefore, it is understandable that Shenzhen's birth rate remains at the middle level of the province.
Not only Dongguan, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, but also the entire Pearl River Delta have low fertility rates of only 1.17 per thousand, far lower than the 1.55 per thousand in eastern Guangdong, 1.95 per thousand in northern Guangdong, and 2.17 per thousand in western Guangdong [13]. In other words, in comparison, women in the Pearl River Delta region can give birth, but do not want to.
However, the number and proportion of women of childbearing age in these areas are also relatively high, such as Shenzhen, Dongguan, Guangzhou, Zhuhai and Zhongshan, which are basically close to 30 percent.
Guangdong's fertility confidence comes from here
In addition to being young, "popularity" is also a major advantage in maintaining the birth rate in the Pearl River Delta region.
In 2022, only eight of the 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province had more permanent residents than registered residents, and all eight of them, without exception, belonged to the Pearl River Delta region.
For example, in Dongguan, 7,512,500 permanent residents are from other places, accounting for 72%, which means that the probability of meeting a local on the street is less than 30% [3]. Shenzhen and Guangzhou, although slightly inferior in terms of the proportion of immigrants, have a staggering number of 11,114,400 and 8,385,000 respectively, so you can imagine how many newborns can be brought to the city.
Due to their developed economy and industrial agglomeration, these typical "migrant cities" are more favored by "migrant workers", attracting a steady stream of countless people.
In those traditional fertility areas, the population is mainly outflow, such as Maoming, Jieyang, and Zhanjiang. Although they are still happy to have children, the overall birth rate will be negatively affected once the population of childbearing age leaves their homes.
If it is only a migration within the province, it is difficult for Guangdong's birth rate to be so impressive. It is said that "the east, west, north, south, and middle, make a fortune to Guangdong", and the Pearl River Delta region, represented by the two first-tier cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, is not only attractive to the people of this province, but also radiates to the whole country. "Shenzhen is the Shenzhen of the Cantonese people, and it is also the Shenzhen of the whole country", it is precisely this principle.
According to the data of the seventh population census, the peacock flies southeast, and the total population of other provinces in Guangdong is as high as 29.62 million, accounting for 23.5% of the total population [14].
Countless descendants rushed to Guangdong, seeing it as a golden choice for employment and settlement. In 2022, 72% of the working population aged 15-64 in Guangdong Province and only 10% of the elderly population were elderly.
Internationally, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in the total population reaches 7% as a standard for a country or region to enter an aging society, such as the three eastern provinces have reached 18%, which is a proper aging area [15].
On the whole, Guangdong's demographic structure is really superior: compared with other provinces, the burden of old-age care is lighter, and it is in a demographic dividend period [8] .
Of course, no matter how young the population structure is, there will be a day when it will grow old, and having more children is not necessarily the same as having more young people.
Some people say that in Guangdong, children have to be paid to the family, and the New Year's money for the junior is only 5 yuan or 10 yuan, no wonder Cantonese people are willing to have more children. Although it is a joke, it also reflects that practical problems such as economic ability and childcare burden are the real pressures in the face of the birth rate.