The statements in this article are based on reliable sources and are repeated at the end of this article
Just when the situation in the Middle East is becoming more and more unclear, a piece of news about Saudi Arabia can be said to have attracted the attention of many people.
According to a report by Bloomberg on May 2, according to people familiar with the matter, the United States and Saudi Arabia are about to reach a historic agreement, the most eye-catching of which are:
The United States has asked Saudi Arabia to restrict Chinese technology and provide it with technology in artificial intelligence and semiconductors; After the conflict in Gaza, it hoped that Saudi Arabia could establish diplomatic relations with Israel; The United States provides protection to Saudi Arabia, etc.
There is even news that Saudi Arabia has agreed to the US proposal, and the United States will stop cooperating with the mainland as soon as it speaks. Many people began to wonder if Saudi Arabia's attitude had "changed"? However, this matter may not be so simple. [Listen to the song]
01 Saudi Arabia has changed?
In fact, the news about the change in Saudi Arabia's attitude is most likely a smokescreen, and the reason is very simple: Saudi Arabia today is not able to change at will because of some small interests of the United States.
First of all, Saudi Arabia and Iran, as the leaders of the two major factions in the Arab world, one Sunni and the other Shia, although there was a period of close harmony, but in 2023, the two sides have reached a settlement under the mediation of the Chinese side.
The vast majority of the Palestinians in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict believe in Sunnis, that is to say, they are in line with the Saudi faction, and if Saudi Arabia really changes its attitude and cooperates with Israel and the United States, which are regarded as enemies, I am afraid that Saudi Arabia's influence will also plummet.
Second, although Hamas is a Sunni, it has good relations with Iran, and Israel also deliberately attacked the Iranian embassy this time, so the Shiites, including Iran, also showed hostility towards Israel and launched their own retaliation.
That is to say, the Arab world in the Middle East is basically on the same front, and if Saudi Arabia's attitude really wants to change, it means that it will turn against Iran and other countries, or even directly stand on the opposite side.
And the price of doing so is that the other side may be seen as hostile, or even take action against the Saudi side, to expand the war in the Middle East, and this is just to obtain a verbal commitment from the United States or some technology? No matter how you look at it, the gains outweigh the losses.
Therefore, the information about the 180-degree change in Saudi Arabia's attitude is most likely a smoke bomb released by the United States, and the intention is probably to muddy the waters, not to mention whether the United States really has the ability to attract Saudi Arabia, I am afraid there is also a question mark.
02 U.S. commitment
In fact, as written above, Saudi Arabia's attitude can be said to have a great impact on the current situation in the Middle East, as well as on its own national security.
And the conditions offered by the United States this time are probably not so attractive, so that Saudi Arabia can take such a big risk to trust the other party unconditionally.
First of all, the United States proposed that it would provide security guarantees for Saudi Arabia, but now we all know that this sentence seems to have become an empty phrase from the performance of the United States today.
Whether it is Israel in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict or Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the help provided by the United States is basically only to provide weapons, and these weapons are still in their own order, picky, and even delayed or canceled.
Second, the myth of the strength of the U.S. military now seems to be gradually disintegrating, with the Houthis shooting at U.S. ships and the Russian military directly stationed at U.S. military bases in Niger when the U.S. was withdrawing, but the U.S. did not respond at all.
With such a move, I am afraid that many countries that believe that the United States will provide guarantees for them will be greatly shaken, so this condition is basically worthless.
Second, the United States said that it would provide Saudi Arabia with advanced technology, mainly around semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and even advanced weapons that were previously banned from export.
These industries can be said to be the most advanced in the United States at present, so they can also be called "blood money", and there is also an incident: restricting Chinese technology from entering Saudi Arabia's "most sensitive network".
The significance of this is obvious, that is, Saudi Arabia is choosing between key cooperation with the United States and China, but the key is that the competitiveness of American technology is constantly weakening.
Specifically, China has made many technological breakthroughs, and in the encirclement and interception of many Western countries, it is still able to break through the encirclement network, and it is full of stamina.
Taking artificial intelligence as an example, the algorithm in the United States can indeed be called the world's top, but the future development will also rely on strong industrial capacity, so as to support a larger algorithm.
The negative impact of deindustrialization in the United States is now very obvious, and if it does not increase the development of industrial science and technology, I am afraid that it will be quickly overtaken in the foreseeable future, and this situation is also manifested in many aspects, which is also one of the difficulties of the United States today.
Therefore, for Saudi Arabia, the technology given by the United States may not be tempting enough to allow them to bear great dangers, and the so-called advanced weapons, even if they are deployed, cannot be realized in a moment and a half, not to mention that the military technology of the United States may not be the same as before.
To sum up, the United States uses various conditions to try to make Saudi Arabia turn around, which can only be said to be a little too beautiful, after all, for the United States today, it is not that people are begging for them, but that they are asking for others.
03 Saudi attitude
As the largest oil exporter today, Saudi Arabia has a huge impact on American society, and the relationship between the two can be said to be very good before, but recently there have been many contradictions.
Especially in the previous Khashoggi case, Biden's cynicism about the Saudi side, as well as various sanctions and condemnations, made the relationship between the two continue to decline, but problems also appeared, that is, Saudi Arabia began to show more and more indifference to the United States.
Including the perfunctory previous visit to Biden, as well as the embarrassment of Blinken, as well as the reduction of oil production, it can be seen that Saudi Arabia is constantly taking a tough stance towards the United States.
But the problem is that the United States is extremely dependent on oil, so the best way is to stabilize Saudi Arabia, but it still can't let go of its "face", so there is such a situation:
On the one hand, it condemned Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, it sought cooperation, and even released news that the relationship between the two sides had made a breakthrough. Doesn't that sound familiar?
That's right, the United States seems to be treating the mainland in the same way, on the one hand, it has to ask for others, but it is still constantly condemning and making small moves behind the scenes.
It is obvious that he is putting on his own stand as the number one in the world and pulling people to stand in line, which is undoubtedly a kind of hegemonism, but now I am afraid that it is long gone.
Of course, it is not impossible to seek a complete easing of Saudi Arabia's attitude, and Saudi Arabia itself has mentioned it: that is, to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as previously proposed, and in accordance with the "two-state solution" proposed in the past.
However, judging from the current situation, whether the United States will really accept it, or dare to accept such conditions, I am afraid that there will be a question mark.
Sources of information:
[1] Observer.com 2024-05-02: The United States was revealed to help Saudi Arabia develop semiconductors, but asked Saudi Arabia to restrict the use of Chinese technology
[2] Xinhua News Agency 2024-05-04: "Special Article" Russian and American troops stationed at the same base in Niger U.S. military strengthens alert
[3] Xinhua News Agency New Media 2024-05-02: The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to expand the definition of "antisemitism".