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Preface
Less than a week after the EU announced a countervailing investigation into China's imports of electric vehicles, China took anti-dumping actions.
It is estimated that the EU never expected that China's actions would be so fast, and they may be confused.
So what kind of anti-dumping actions will China take? What kind of blow will it take to the EU?
China's anti-dumping actions
On June 17, China announced that it would open an anti-dumping investigation against the EU's related agricultural and sideline products.
This means that the pork industry in the EU will be hit hard.
Source: June 18, 2024 on "China conducts anti-dumping investigation, British media: EU pork industry will face a "nightmare".
You must know that China, with a population of 1.4 billion, has a very large market potential.
And the vast majority of Chinese families eat pork the most when it comes to choosing meat.
It is reported that the mainland basically needs to consume nearly 700 million pigs every year, and once became the world's largest consumer market.
Taking the overall data of 2021, the mainland's pork consumption accounts for 46% of the total pork consumption in the entire international market, and the per capita pork consumption is twice the average.
The EU accounts for the vast majority of China's pork imports, and China has become the EU's largest exporter of pork.
Between 20 and 23 years, China imported 54% of its pork and pig non-staple food from the EU.
Among the EU countries, the biggest beneficiary of China's pork imports is Spain, whose main economic industry is pig farming.
Last year, China imported $6 billion worth of pork and pig by-products, and Spain alone accounted for one-quarter.
However, among the countries mentioned in the application for anti-dumping cases was Spain.
Some people may not understand why the anti-dumping case has something to do with Spain.
Although Spain has become the biggest beneficiary of Sino-European cooperation, judging by their performance, they do not cherish the opportunity to cooperate with the mainland.
It is important to know that in the EU's countervailing investigation against China, Spain participated as a major promoter.
So in China's anti-dumping list this time, Spain is one of them.
British media reported that if China restricts imports, it may be as uncomfortable as a nightmare for the EU.
After all, it is difficult to find a country in the world with such a large throughput as large as China, and it is impossible for the EU to consume such a large amount in a short period of time.
Before that, although a large amount of pork and pig by-products had been exported to China every year, there was still a lot of overcapacity in the EU.
And because of this, the EU has imposed huge subsidies on the pork industry, which then appeared on the Chinese market at extremely low prices, seriously affecting the price of pork produced in China.
Therefore, if China really wants to restrict imports, then the EU's pigs are estimated to be left for their own New Year.
However, if you restrict imports, it's okay, after all, the restrictions can still be lifted, but if they are directly replaced, then there is really no chance of turning over.
According to the analysis of relevant sources, China's lack of imported pork is likely to be filled by Russia.
You must know that just this year, during Putin's visit to China, the two countries reached a number of cooperation, so it is not impossible that the EU pig market will be replaced by Russia.
Once Russia intervenes, then the EU will not want to enter the Chinese market.
Australia is the EU's best mirror.
In the past, they also cooperated very closely with China, but then they made a series of anti-China remarks and policies against China, and China directly took countermeasures after the warnings were fruitless.
Since then, the relevant market in Australia has been replaced by other countries, especially their wines, which have been directly replaced by European wines in the Chinese market.
After China took countermeasures, cooperation between the two countries reached a record low.
It can be seen that once China takes countermeasures to restrict the EU's pig imports, then the EU's market in China will definitely be in jeopardy, and I am afraid it will be too late to cry.
When China announced that it had opened an anti-dumping investigation against the EU, it was European farmers and some cooperative organizations that reacted the most strongly.
After all, if China takes countermeasures, their interests will be directly damaged, so European farmers are calling on the EU not to let them get caught up in this dispute.
It is hard not to think that China's anti-dumping investigation is being carried out in response to the EU's actions on China's electric vehicles.
The EU has launched a countervailing investigation into Chinese automakers
On June 12, the EU announced that it would conduct a countervailing investigation on car companies imported into the EU.
The investigation has been extended until November 2, after which the final tariffs on China will be determined.
Source: Beijing News's official Weibo report on June 13, 2024 on "The EU is too "double standard" to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles".
Now they have plans to impose tariffs on different brands of electric vehicles in China.
Among them, it is mentioned that BYD, Geely, SAIC and other car companies.
Others who did not mention brands increased by 21%, but if they did not cooperate with their countervailing investigations, they would be subject to an additional 38.1%.
Not only that, but the EU has even threatened to implement the plan ahead of schedule if there is no solution to the negotiations with China.
However, the EU may forget that the tariffs will not only affect China, but also some of their related companies.
So when the EU proposed a countervailing investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, they were very divided internally.
Among them, Germany, which owns Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, is strongly opposed.
It is important to know that once this plan is implemented, not only Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers will suffer, but also relevant German car companies and the EU's green deal industrial plan will be affected.
According to data from a German think tank, if the EU imposes tariffs, China's imports of electric vehicles will be reduced by 25%, which is equivalent to 125,000 vehicles.
As a result, Chinese EV manufacturers will also directly lose about $4 billion in orders.
However, the study pointed out that despite the increase in tariffs on Chinese EV imports, many consumers may still prefer Chinese automakers.
After all, China's electric vehicles are still very advantageous in terms of the supply of raw materials, especially BYD.
Some studies say that even if the EU imposes 40% to 50% tariffs on BYD, it will not affect its market share.
It can be seen that China's electric vehicles are still very advantageous in the world.
But perhaps the EU never imagined that less than a week after they announced a countervailing investigation on China's electric vehicles, China would also start an anti-dumping investigation on their agricultural and sideline industries.
Regardless of whether China will eventually restrict the import of European live pigs, the anti-dumping investigation also lets the EU know that China is not so easy to bully, and there are many countermeasures against them.
epilogue
The EU's countervailing investigation of China's electric vehicles and its planned tariffs will not only damage the interests of Chinese car companies, but also affect their related car companies.
It can be said that the EU's approach is simply harmful to others and not to itself.
But China is not easy to bully, and there are many countermeasures that can be taken, just announcing that the EU agricultural and sideline products will be investigated for anti-dumping, which is enough to arouse the concerns of their farmers.
It can be seen that once China takes countermeasures, the consequences are likely to be unbearable for the EU.