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Report | China Wind Power Potential Assessment (2024)

author:Test the waters

The current situation of wind power generation in China

Growth in installed capacity

Overall Growth:

2015: China's installed wind power capacity was 145 GW.

2023: China's installed wind power capacity will increase to 441 GW, with a compound annual growth rate of 15%.

The data shows the rapid growth of China's installed wind power capacity, reflecting the remarkable results of wind power technology and policy support.

Offshore Wind Power:

2015: The cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power was 1 GW.

2023: The cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power will reach 37 GW, with a compound annual growth rate of 57%.

The growth rate of offshore wind power installed capacity is much higher than that of onshore wind power, showing the huge development potential and technological progress of offshore wind power.

Onshore Wind Power:

2015: The cumulative installed capacity of onshore wind power was 144 GW.

2023: The cumulative installed capacity of onshore wind power will increase to 405 GW, with a compound annual growth rate of 14%.

Onshore wind power growth is relatively stable, but slightly lower than that of offshore wind power.

Regional differences

Installed capacity difference:

There are significant differences among provinces in terms of installed capacity, power generation and total electricity consumption, reflecting the diversity of economic vitality, resource endowment and energy demand in different regions.

Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Hebei, Gansu, Shandong, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Henan and other places have the highest installed wind power capacity, all exceeding 20 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity of the eight provinces has reached 255.29 million kilowatts.

Difference in power generation:

In 2023, China's wind power generation capacity will reach 809 billion kWh, accounting for 9% of the country's total power generation.

Jilin, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Hebei and other places have the highest wind power generation, accounting for 24%, 21%, 17%, 17% and 16% of the total power generation of each province, respectively.

Resource Condition Differences:

These areas have abundant wind resources, with a wind power density of more than 200 W/m², an average wind speed of 5-6 m/s, and more than 2000 hours of utilization, so the power generation efficiency is relatively high.

Wind power generation in Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia and Shanxi is one of the main sources of regional electricity demand, accounting for 28%, 26%, 25%, 20% and 17% of the total electricity consumption in the region, respectively.

Wind power technology advances

Remarkable progress has been made in the development of wind power facilities in China under different complex terrain conditions, especially in the design technology of wind turbines adapted to special terrains such as mountains, coasts, deserts, deserts, Gobi and farmland.

This technological progress has not only promoted the innovation and development of China's wind power technology, but also greatly increased the installed capacity of wind power in the region, thus injecting strong impetus into regional economic development while promoting the clean and low-carbon energy transition.

Wind power potential assessment

Wind energy resource potential

Distribution of onshore wind energy:

The distribution of onshore wind energy in China shows obvious regional characteristics, with wind energy in the northern region being more abundant and the southern region having relatively low wind energy.

Most areas in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and northern Gansu have high wind energy resources, and most of them have wind power densities of more than 400 W/m².

The eastern part of Xinjiang is close to Gansu and some areas in northern Inner Mongolia, and has abundant wind energy resources, with wind power densities of more than 900 W/m² in some areas, making them ideal for centralized wind energy development due to their low population density and flat terrain.

Offshore Wind Energy Resources:

Although the land area of southern China has relatively low wind energy resources, the southern sea area has excellent offshore wind energy resources.

Especially in the sea area between Fujian Province and Taiwan Province, the wind power density can reach more than 1000 W/m², showing great development potential.

Wind power technology has untapped potential

The technical potential reflects the potential of regional wind resources to generate electricity under the technical accessibility. In the actual development process of wind power resources, the installed capacity of technology is directly related to factors such as technology accessibility, technology cost, installed capacity type, wind power density, and equipment operation cycle.

Onshore Wind Power:

More than 10 billion kilowatts of wind energy resources can be developed at an altitude of 140 meters on land on the mainland.

Offshore Wind Power:

The technical exploitable capacity of offshore wind energy resources at an altitude of 150 meters offshore and deep sea, within 200 kilometers offshore and with a water depth of less than 100 meters is 2.78 billion kilowatts, and the actual installed capacity utilization rate is less than 4% and 0.9%, indicating huge potential for future development.

Wind power installation scenario analysis

Policy Scenario:

From 2023 to 2035, the southern, northwestern, and central China regions will have the highest growth rate of wind power installations, reaching more than 162%.

North China has the highest cumulative installed capacity of wind power in the country, accounting for about 30%-34% of the country.

From the perspective of regional installed capacity growth, the southern region will have the highest growth rate from 2023 to 2035, which will reach 195%, followed by 164% in Northwest China, 162% in Central China, 122% in Northeast China, 107% in East China, and 103% in North China.

From the perspective of the average annual growth rate of regional installed capacity, the southern region will have the largest average annual growth rate from 2023 to 2035, which will reach 9.4%, followed by 8.4% in Northwest China, 8.4% in Central China, 6.9% in Northeast China, 6.2% in East China, and 6.1% in North China.

High-speed scenario:

From 2023 to 2035, the southern region will have the highest growth rate of wind power installation, which will reach 355%, followed by East China (326%), Northeast China (318%), Central China (310%), Northwest China (299%), and North China (264%).

From the perspective of the average annual growth rate of regional installed capacity, the average annual growth rate of the southern region will be the largest from 2023 to 2035, which will reach 13.5%, followed by 12.8% in East China, 12.7% in Northeast China, 12.5% in Central China, 12.2% in Northwest China, and 11.4% in North China.

Wind power installed capacity forecast

Report | China Wind Power Potential Assessment (2024)

conclusion

China's installed wind power capacity and power generation have continued to grow in the past few years, and there are significant differences in the development of wind energy resources in different regions. The technical potential and installed capacity forecasts of future wind power development show that southern, northern, and eastern regions will become the main drivers of wind power growth. Advances in wind power technology will continue to promote the efficient use of wind energy resources and the development of regional economies.

Note: This article is from the "China Wind and Solar Power Potential Assessment (2024)", if you need the original report, please add the editor WeChat Kurgerlion

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Report | China Wind Power Potential Assessment (2024)

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