Following Bill Gates, the American Nobel Prize economist Thomas Sargent gave his rare prediction of the chip war between China and the United States at a press conference.
He said: The United States will cut off the supply of Chinese chips for a maximum of 10 years!
In 10 years' time, China's chip technology will surpass that of the United States, so the United States should reconsider the opportunity to cooperate with China in chip development.
As soon as this remark came out, it aroused widespread discussion among the public.
Some people believe that the United States is now weakening its national strength, and if it does not seek win-win cooperation opportunities for China, it will not be able to make progress by relying on chip barriers alone.
It has even made China self-reliant, stronger and stronger, and grabbed its hegemony as a scientific and technological power.
Of course, there are some people who think that this old guy is alarmist, and he only said good things because he took bribes from China.
In recent years, as the mainland has paid more and more attention to a series of high-tech industries such as chips, our strength has gradually made it difficult for Western countries led by the United States to sit on their laurels and pay attention to it.
So how did China break through the US blockade step by step to get to where it is today, so that the United States will pursue and intercept us at all costs?
1. Today's chip situation
In this era of information intelligence, chips are very important as the "brain" of electronic devices.
Nowadays, the global chip market is in a stage of rapid development.
According to online statistics, the world's mobile phone chip production in 2023 will be about 1.14 billion, of which about 680 million are 5G chips.
Probably by 2024, the above data is estimated to grow by 4%, and it is difficult for the chip market demand to stop or slow down in the short term.
The demand for chips varies from place to place.
As one of the world's largest chip markets, the Chinese market has always been a stage for some large chip companies to compete.
The markets in Europe and the United States are more interested in the research and development and application of high-end chips, and they have always held the right to speak on the development of chips.
When it comes to large chip companies, we have to mention TSMC, MediaTek, Intel, AMD and Apple and other manufacturers.
They have always occupied a dominant position in the R&D and manufacturing of computer and mobile phone processors.
However, the R&D and manufacturing of our domestic chips have also been closely followed, and UNISOC has been following suit.
Huawei, SMIC and other domestic manufacturers are also seeking development opportunities, and have been increasing R&D efforts and expanding market channels, striving to catch up with and surpass the level of foreign manufacturers.
However, the mainland's chip R&D started slowly, and the R&D team of the chip industry is still understaffed and there is a shortage of talents.
The integrity of our chip industry chain is relatively low compared with foreign countries, so we have long relied on imported high-end chip manufacturing and packaging testing.
The chip industry is a high-investment, high-risk industry, from R&D to industrialization requires a lot of funds, and the mainland has gradually begun to pay attention to the chip industry.
It has not only adopted the "Announcement on Promoting the High-quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry and the Software Industry Enterprise Income Tax Policy" and other policies to provide tax incentives for chip enterprises.
The government also encourages mainland enterprises to carry out technical exchanges and cooperation with internationally renowned chip companies, and further make up for their own shortcomings by absorbing international advanced technology.
However, when the United States saw that the mainland was cooperating with well-known chip companies, it hurriedly promulgated trade restriction policies and technical blockade measures to make us stare dryly and then be arrested.
Second, the chip barrier in the United States
Since Biden came to power in the United States, the United States' chip barriers to the mainland have begun to form.
From restricting mainland access to the Total Gate Surround (GAA) architecture technology for artificial intelligence, to the limitations of EDA (electronic design automation), the field of chip design has been unable to make progress in the field of chip design.
In addition, the United States controls about 70% of the world's semiconductor equipment market and has a strong influence in the global chip industry chain, and the United States' IP (intellectual property) also accounts for 30% of the chip industry.
The United States has set up obstacles in the R&D and manufacturing of chips, and has also added many restrictions on the trade of chips.
By creating an entity list that includes some Chinese companies, restricting their access to U.S. technology and products.
At the same time, it also restricts the investment of other well-known enterprises in China's chip industry and curbs the development of China's chip industry.
Not only that, but the United States has also banned its own companies and those of other allied countries from cooperating with China to produce chips.
However, although this has a certain impact on China, it has also led to "killing a thousand enemies and losing 800 yourself", and the financial statements of foreign chip companies have become unsightly.
In short, the United States wants to firmly block China's chip development at all costs, just like the three-body people use Zhizi to lock up human technology.
But the United States is still too far behind the Trisolarans, and the Chinese are not as cowardly as the human adventists in "The Three-Body Problem".
Most of the chip companies in the mainland have the backbone to break through the blockade of the United States and develop chips on their own, and among these companies, Huawei's performance can be said to be quite impressive in the near future.
3. "The light boat has crossed the Ten Thousand Mountains"
"The light boat has crossed the Ten Thousand Mountains", this poem is used to describe Huawei's journey on the road of chip development.
In 1991, Huawei established an integrated circuit design center and began to get involved in chip research and development.
After several years of hard work, Huawei has made a breakthrough in the field of communication chips and launched its first successful chip, SD502, for multi-function interface control of switches.
In 2009, Huawei launched the K3V1, a one-stop solution for GSM low-end smartphones.
Although it has just started and the performance is not perfect, this is Huawei's first attempt in the field of mobile phone chips, and it can be regarded as commendable.
In 2013, Huawei officially launched the Kirin series chips, and then the release of the Kirin 9000 series chips made a lot of friends have to look at Huawei.
However, under a series of sanctions such as the U.S. chip policy, Huawei's Kirin chips have been restricted and have experienced a period of darkness.
During this period, Huawei has been struggling to move forward in the dark, vowing to be ashamed of the hatred of chips.
But with the shocking launch of Huawei's Kirin 9000S chip in 2023, it has broken the chip cage of the United States, and also slapped Raimondo, the US Secretary of Commerce, who has always been concerned about the development of Chinese chips, in the face.
Huawei's Kirin 9000S has achieved independent production of 7nm process, which is a milestone in the history of China's chips.
The following year, Huawei released the Kirin 90010 chip, which had 15.5% higher performance than the Snapdragon 888 processor and consumed less energy than the Snapdragon 888.
It can be said that China's chips have reached the forefront of the world level, and I believe that Huawei will continue to move forward and create better chips in the future.
Huawei has been constantly pushing the limits of itself, from the early 45nm and 28nm processes, to the later 16nm and 7nm processes, and then to the latest 5nm processes, Huawei has continuously set new industry records.
Along the way, Huawei has had gloom and glory, which represents the epitome of the progress of China's chip industry and the future of China's chips.
Fourth, the future of China's chips
In 2020, Bill Gates warned about chip sanctions against the United States: "Trying to prevent China from acquiring high-performance chips will only accelerate its progress towards self-sufficiency." ”
Now, four years later, Bill Gates' prediction is coming true.
In the face of external pressures and challenges, China's semiconductor industry has not succumbed, but has stimulated unprecedented resilience and innovation vitality.
The successful development and launch of Huawei's Kirin series chips is a vivid portrayal of China's semiconductor industry's unremitting self-improvement and rising to the challenge.
Now Professor Sargent's public prediction also represents the international outside world's affirmation of the strength of China's chips, and the United States' chip sanctions can only be played for a maximum of 10 years.
In 10 years, the United States will have to import Chinese chips for use.
However, their own chips are becoming less and less competitive because of their own protection policies, and they are gradually being eliminated.
At present, the Chinese government and enterprises are seizing the current strategic opportunity of chip capacity expansion, accelerating the layout of cutting-edge technology research and development, and gradually taking away the leadership and voice in the chip field from the United States.
And the United States is still helpless about this, and is still playing the old trick of sanctions against Chinese chips.
It is conceivable that if the United States has been guarding its own one-third of an acre of land and has been stuck in the neck of Chinese chips, then sooner or later it will reap the consequences and suffocate to death.
epilogue
Although the United States has been sanctioning our chip industry, the mainland has exercised its own independent R&D and innovation capabilities in the predicament, and gradually reduced its dependence on the United States.
On the other hand, in the United States, they do not understand the principle of "being born in adversity and dying in peace," and they think that they can sit back and relax by lying in a place where there is no dispute with the world, but they do not know that they have already gone down the road to extinction.
Science and technology and the economy are interdependent and mutually reinforcing.
Supply cuts and sanctions will affect China's chip development, and will also deal a blow to the scientific and technological development of the United States and even the world.
In today's globalized world, any form of isolation and isolation is stupid.
Perhaps one day, the United States will wake up, re-understand the potential of China's development, and then cooperate for a win-win situation.
However, this situation may not have a chance to be realized until the "elites" of the US government step down.
Resources:
No flowers in hand^ 2024-06-16 08:19"After Bill Gates, well-known economists in the United States give a prediction: the supply of Chinese chips will be cut off for up to 10 years"
Dark Horse Caiyi2024-06-15 23:39"After Bill Gates, well-known economists in the United States gave a prediction: the supply of Chinese chips will be cut off for up to 10 years! 》
Yutang Literature and HistoryV2024-06-07 21:51"Nobel Prize Winner Predicts: China Will Surpass the United States and Become the World's Largest Economy in 10 Years"
Xiao Liu came to class2024-06-17 06:37"After Bill Gates, well-known economists in the United States give a prediction: the supply of Chinese chips will be cut off for up to 10 years"
Baidu Encyclopedia "Huawei Kirin Chip"