#精品长文创作季#
China's Ministry of Commerce announced on the evening of the 22nd that China and the EU agreed to start consultations on the EU's anti-subsidy investigation of electric vehicles against China. The European side also issued a statement on the same day, saying that it "had a frank and constructive conversation on the EU's countervailing investigation of electric vehicles produced in China" and "agreed to engage on the basis of facts and full respect for WTO rules".
This attitude has changed a little quickly! On June 12, the European Union announced additional tariffs on China's electric vehicles, on June 17, China announced an anti-dumping investigation on pork from the European Union, and on June 22, China and the EU announced that they would start negotiations on auto tariffs.
Reversal and reversal: the EU bows its head, and China shoots accurately and ruthlessly!
Announcement No. 23 of 2024 issued by the Ministry of Commerce on June 17 to investigate the anti-dumping of import-related pork and pig by-products originating in the EU, including fresh, chilled and frozen pork; edible offal of fresh, cold and frozen pigs; Pork products such as fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, smoked, salted or salted. According to an application for an anti-dumping investigation submitted by the China Animal Husbandry Association published by the Ministry of Commerce, there are concerns about "overcapacity" in European pork products. There is a lot of excess capacity in EU pork, with an average of 4.26 million tons per year!
China consumes more than 50 million tons of pork a year, and imports less than 1 million tons from the European Union, accounting for less than 2%, but it has been crowned by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce as "overcapacity" as the "butcher's knife" of the anti-dumping investigation! Many netizens immediately linked the EU's additional tariffs of 17.4% to 38.1% on Chinese-made electric vehicles on June 12, which is a proper retaliation for the EU's additional tariffs!
How can Chinese electric vehicles be able to do so, and why will they cause the EU to impose additional tariffs?
The reason is simple, the EU is worried that China's electric cars will "flood" Europe! In 2023, 3.017 million electric vehicles will be sold in Europe, of which more than 640,000 electric vehicles will be exported from China to Europe, accounting for more than 20%, and the share is increasing year by year.
According to data from Inovev, a French automotive industry consultancy, Chinese electric vehicles sold 14,000 units in Europe in 2019, 30,000 in 2020, and nearly 80,000 in 2021. In the first nine months of 2022, about 155,000 Chinese-made cars were sold in Europe, accounting for 5.8% of the European electric vehicle market.
Inovev expects electric vehicles from China to account for more than 20% of the European electric vehicle market by 2030, with sales ranging from 725,000 to 1.16 million units. However, this target has already been achieved six years ahead of schedule, because in 2023, China will already export 640,000 electric cars to Europe, accounting for 20%.
There are several factors for the rocket-like rise of Chinese electric vehicles in the European market, the first is the price! Since 2015, the average selling price of an electric vehicle has risen from 48,900 euros to 55,800 euros in Europe and from 53,000 euros to 63,900 euros in the United States, but electric vehicles from China have fallen from 66,800 euros to 31,800 euros, and this price is generally lower than the price of gasoline vehicles.
Patrick Kohler, CEO of French auto parts supplier Forvia, believes that Chinese EV manufacturers have lower R&D costs and labor costs, so they are able to produce cars at a lower cost! It seems to be a high-sounding statement, but it carries a large number of private goods, which is also the general perception of the low price of Chinese trams in Europe, we do not deny that China's labor costs are indeed lower than those in Europe, but the biggest cost of electric vehicles is not manpower but materials, technology and research and development costs!
China's R&D of electric cars started earlier than that of the United States, with the largest R&D investment and the most complete industrial chain in the world, from batteries, electronic control, motors, bodies, on-board systems, and autonomous driving...... China has it all! What's even more advantageous is that China is still a huge consumer market, China sells more than 30 million cars every year, of which 30% are electric vehicles!
This is a fairly large market, domestic tram companies in this market to compete in the blood, all parties to the stacking technology to win, voltage from 400V to 800V, battery from 20 degrees to 50 degrees, and then to 100 degrees, battery life from 150 kilometers to 500 kilometers, and then to the current 700 ~ 800 kilometers, on-board electronic equipment from the entertainment car machine to the AI car machine, and then to automatic driving, these dazzling functions, in the domestic high-end tram market is the standard!
After the involution of this huge domestic market, these tram companies that have killed red eyes in China are going to slaughter, and European car companies are used to not changing the configuration for several years, but China's trams may change the configuration three times a year! In addition to Tesla, the German Volkswagen still has a place in the electric car market, but the popular 400V platform in Europe has fallen behind in China, but it is still in the advanced ranks in Europe. The current Chinese tram can only be exported to Europe with secondary sinking technology, otherwise it will be a proper slaughter of European tram technology!
Anti-dumping investigation on pork and by-products: China's action is accurate and ruthless
The panic in Europe is not unreasonable, but the electric vehicles exported by China to Europe have a rather strange composition! Among the cars exported to Europe, SAIC Motor has the highest proportion, accounting for more than 30%! And SAIC's stake composition is 50% in Germany, do you see a very strange result, the German company with half of the shares exports cars to Europe but was caught off guard by the Europeans with "overcapacity"!
Behind this is the ghost of the Americans! Germany is opposed to Europe's imposition of additional tariffs on China's electric vehicles, but EU President von der Leyen, under the instructions of the United States, ignored Germany's opinions, amplified the opinions of France and Spain, and led the passage of the tariffs on China's electric vehicles.
Why Attack Pork? The reason is that von der Leyen is France, Spain, the Netherlands and other countries, Spain accounts for the first proportion of pork exports from Europe to China, with a total export of more than 1.5 billion US dollars, followed by the United States and Brazil, the Netherlands, Denmark and France ranked fourth, fifth and seventh respectively, so the most affected by this anti-dumping investigation in Europe is Spain.
China's annual pork consumption of more than 50 million tons, this more than 1 million tons is really nothing, but some imported pork is mainly to regulate the market, in recent years, imported pork from more than 5 million tons has been decreasing year by year, but the proportion of pork from Europe has not declined synchronously, or to ensure a certain share, mainly taking into account the cooperative relationship of the European Union, now tearing face, we do not need to maintain the surface of relaxation.
Since the announcement of the anti-dumping investigation on June 17, China and the EU said on June 22 that they had a frank and constructive conversation on "the countervailing investigation of electric vehicles produced in China", which is almost the speed of light, which means that this tool has worked, otherwise the arrogant EU will not be calm to negotiate with China!
What exactly is the purpose of the EU? Technology Transfer: The script was written upside down
Imposing additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, in fact, the EU still has a small abacus! The proportion of additional tariffs imposed on Chinese trams is 17.4% for BYD, 20% for Geely Automobile, and 38.1% for SAIC. Other car companies that are not mentioned are 21%, compared to the United States is almost 102.5% of the persuasion, and the proportion of the European Union is not high, which means that the European Union does not intend to beat Chinese electric vehicles to death, but leaves room for it!
What exactly is this leeway? The script is written backwards!
According to the analysis of a number of think tanks, although Europe has the shadow of the United States behind the United States, but in fact, there are also European local demands in the key role in promoting, so experts believe that the real purpose of Europe may be technology transfer and European localized production, Europe in tram technology is completely unable to compete with China is an indisputable fact, but Europe is not willing to give up tram technology, because European traditional car companies, especially German Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW are still very strong in the field of electric car technology, although some are currently backward, but if China's electric car technology can pull these companies, then these traditional car companies back to the top is also very promising.
The other is to increase employment in Europe by localization, since the Russian-Ukrainian war, European energy has turned to the Middle East and the United States, compared with cheap Russian energy, the cost of natural gas and oil transportation from these regions is much higher, and Europe needs to order a large number of LNG ships and build facilities to store liquefied natural gas, which is much higher than the previous cost of pipeline natural gas, which has led to a surge in European energy prices that previously used a large amount of natural gas for power generation, and European local companies have fled, some to the United States, and most to China.
Of course, the purpose of Europe is to revive the local manufacturing industry in Europe, and it is obviously the best choice for Chinese electric vehicle companies to invest heavily in Europe! Europe's natural gas has also reverted to Russia, and it was previously reported that Russia has returned to the ranks of Europe's first natural gas suppliers, which means that Europe has begun to abandon ideology and embrace pragmatism again, so the next investment in trams will inject a shot in the arm for European manufacturing!
The current state of Europe is very similar to that of China's reform and opening up, and the backwardness of technology needs to be upgraded, and China is the Oriental boss with technology and money, and Europe has entered the "technology transfer" negotiations with China by retreating into advance, although the start is not very good, but Europe has done it at the negotiating table!
The European plan is perfect: the question is whether China will cooperate?
The answer is a very likely yes! If you don't believe me, let's take a look at the news: "China's C919 aircraft is about to receive European certification, regulators plan to visit", this is a report from the South China Morning Post, quoting a source:
Officials from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) will participate in a flight simulation of the aircraft, consult with its design team, and meet with counterparts from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC). The European delegation will also have "ample opportunities" to conduct a detailed inspection, climb aboard the aircraft for a closer look and visit the assembly line of the manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac).
The visit marks a step forward for Beijing in its quest for certification of the aircraft by European regulators, an achievement that will give potential buyers in Europe and elsewhere more confidence when considering a potential deal with COMAC.
Europe has relented on the issue of China's C919 airworthiness certificate!
C919 is COMAC's own development, with independent intellectual property rights of large jet civil aircraft, belongs to the seat class of 158-168 seats, range of 4075-5555 kilometers regional airliner, its future competitors for Airbus A320Neo and Boeing B737Max, the world can manufacture large and medium-sized passenger aircraft companies are only the United States Boeing and European Airbus, now there is a third party COMAC, must be a thorn in the eye, two people eat a plate into three people share a plate, Everyone has an opinion, doesn't it?
Therefore, on the airworthiness certificate of China's access to the European and American civil aviation markets, the first card of the US FAA is the neck of the Chinese, and the second Europe also follows the card, so the C919 that cannot get the European and American airworthiness certificate can only fly in China or with countries that recognize the airworthiness certificate issued by China's civil aviation, although the domestic market will be able to support commercial flights for a while and a half, but it is a pity that the C919 in Europe and the United States cannot be reached.
This time, Europe is very likely to take the C919 airworthiness certificate (carrot) and impose additional tariffs (big sticks) to let China comply, after all, the European airworthiness certification of C919 is also very tempting! But will the Chinese follow the path of Europe? The answer is not necessarily, China is very likely to be both and wanted, in the tram industry will be based on the domestic situation to do very limited technology landing, foreign investment in tram companies will have technical review, because the electric vehicle industry is China's next hundred years of foundation, China's manufacturing industry bigger and stronger, tram is an indispensable industry.
However, for electric vehicle technology, it is more of a cluster bundle of industrial technology, because electric vehicles are not a breakthrough in which technology can eat all over the world, this is an industry that needs the advantages of the cluster industrial chain, so China can consider the limited transfer of technology that has done "desensitization" in some areas, and the industrial chain is still based on the domestic, how to meet the needs of the EU at this stage, but also to achieve our purpose.
For the problem of Sino-European electric vehicles and C919 airworthiness certification, if you have better opinions, you may wish to leave a message for discussion to see if there is a more perfect solution!