Source: Photo.com
On June 25, according to the Economic Observer, cases of leaving nursing homes for financial reasons are quietly increasing this year, especially in rural areas. An elderly person who left a rural nursing home said in an interview: "Rural families should be content if someone takes care of them at home. ”
According to the report, Zhang Tong, who runs nearly 10 rural elderly care institutions in a top 100 GDP city in southern China, said: "In previous years, about 15% of the elderly were discharged from the hospital due to death or economic reasons. In the first half of this year, many family members of the elderly took the initiative to come to the door to say that due to the reduction of employment opportunities outside the home, most of the time at home, so the elderly were taken back for care. This has also led to an increase in the overall discharge rate of the institution to 25%. ”
The heads of the brands of the three chain pension institutions (the institutions are located in four provinces) all said that the number of elderly people discharged from hospitals in the first half of this year was significantly higher than in previous years, mainly because "family members are idle at home due to reduced job opportunities", but the overall scale is not large. In addition, an expert from a pension industry association said that in the process of communication with a number of pension institutions recently, it has also been learned that there has indeed been an increase in the number of rural elderly people leaving hospitals for economic reasons.
According to the Rural Green Book: Analysis and Forecast of China's Rural Economic Situation (2023-2024) released by the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Sciences Academic Press, the average pension received by farmers is 204.7 yuan per month. Compared with the cost of more than 2,500 yuan/month for inclusive pension institutions, farmers' pensions are only a drop in the bucket.
According to the statistics of the seventh national population census, there are 121 million people aged 60 and above in rural China, which means that there are 120 million potential users of rural elderly care institutions. On the other side of the huge demand, a number of industry insiders said that rural pension institutions still need to be further improved and developed, which requires the joint efforts of rural elderly groups, social capital and the government.
Policies are working to that end. On June 13, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, together with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 21 departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Rural Pension Services", which proposed to actively cultivate the main body of the pension service market rooted in the countryside and close to the villagers. It is understood that this is the first overall and systematic deployment for the development of rural pension services at the national level.
Empty nesters account for more than half of the elderly at home
According to the regular press conference of the Ministry of Civil Affairs in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the survey data of the Department of Pension Services of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the proportion of empty nesters in the elderly population in mainland China has exceeded half, and the proportion of empty nesters in some large cities and rural areas even exceeds 70%. Home care for the disabled, living alone and empty nesters is a key problem in the construction of pension and welfare in mainland China.
At present, "9073" is the mainstay, and the "community" and "home" models have a lot of room for growth
At present, there are two types of pension models implemented in the mainland, namely "9064" and "9073". Among them, the "9064" model was proposed by Beijing, that is, 90% of the elderly are supported by family care with the assistance of socialized services, 6% of the elderly are provided for the elderly through the government purchasing community care services, and 4% of the elderly live in pension service institutions for centralized pension. Another pension model implemented in mainland China is the "9073" model, which was first proposed by Shanghai in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", that is, 90% of the elderly are self-cared for by their families, 7% enjoy community home care services, and 3% enjoy institutional care services.
Referring to the experience of Japan and the United States, the mainland has given a lot of inspiration in terms of payment system and pension construction, considering the current situation in the mainland, the home care model may become the mainstream trend in the future, and community pension and institutional pension will become an important supplement. At present, the main pension model in mainland China is the "9073" model.
The scale of the smart pension market will explode in an all-round way
At present, the smart health care industry in mainland China is still in the market development stage, and most projects have not yet formed a clear business model, but with policy support, technological innovation and the change of consumption concepts, the smart health care market will usher in a comprehensive outbreak in the next 5-10 years. At that time, the deep integration of a new generation of information technology and the health care industry will become the basic guarantee for the development of the smart health care industry, the "combination of medical care and elderly care" will become the leading concept of the development of the smart health care industry, and the business model innovation will become the continuous driving force for the deep development of the smart health care industry, and the market size of the smart pension industry is expected to grow in double digits by 2027, and the market size of China's smart pension industry will exceed 16 trillion yuan by 2027.
"In the future, smart pension products and services can solve more than 60% of the pension problems, or even more, mainly due to the shortage of elderly care personnel at this stage." Luo Shougui, a distinguished professor at Antai College of Economics and Management of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, pointed out that the development of the smart pension industry has a certain inevitability and is also the trend of the times.
In view of the existing pain points in the industry, Xu Yafeng, general manager of Sinopharm Health Care, suggested that, first, the government should take the lead in organizing associations, universities, and enterprises to jointly formulate smart pension service platforms and application scenario standards; Second, we should upgrade the existing pension service facilities, expand the scenario application of digital and intelligent pension services and products, so that they can be experienced, preached and transformed; Third, it is necessary to increase the R&D and production, promotion, capital and policy support of smart pension enterprises; Fourth, it is to increase the cultivation of talents related to smart pension, export professional and high-quality talents to the society, and improve the overall service level of the industry.
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