In the past, people often thought that if a war broke out in the Taiwan Strait, it would only be after the "Taiwan independence" forces took a reckless step to formally declare Taiwan independence, because the mainland side has repeatedly declared that as long as the Taiwan authorities dare to declare independence, the mainland will certainly take resolute measures. According to this statement, the red line of whether or not the mainland will use force has been clearly drawn, and the mainland will not use force until the Taiwan authorities cross this red line.
At present, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has undergone new changes. Lai Ching-te, who seized power in Taiwan, issued the "520 Declaration" when he took office, and the declaration openly expressed his "real independence" tendency, but even under such circumstances, the mainland side still repeatedly affirmed that it would continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and greatest efforts. This seems to mean that as long as the Taiwan side does not brazenly and openly declare its independence and statehood, the mainland side will still not take the initiative to launch a war in the Taiwan Strait.
So, is it really impossible to fight a war in the Taiwan Strait?
The answer is yes, I'm afraid not! Taken together, "war" and "peace" in the Taiwan Strait at present and for some time to come are not so simple, and the situation has become unprecedentedly complicated. A new possibility is that the "Taiwan independence" forces are very likely to take the initiative to provoke an armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait, which will lead to the possibility of a war in the Taiwan Strait breaking out before the "Taiwan independence" forces openly declare independence.
Such predictions and warnings are not groundless. The latest news is that Gu Lixiong, responsible person of Taiwan's defense department, recently claimed that as long as the PLA attacks aircraft, ships, facilities, and any flying entity enters the 12-nautical-mile "air and sea area" without permission, Taiwan's military can order the exercise of the "right of self-defense" and carry out a "self-defense counterattack."
We say this is a very dangerous move. Such a declaration means that the Taiwan authorities have delegated the authority to fire at the mainland's warships and planes to the front-line military personnel, because whether or not the PLA attacks "aircraft, ships, and facilities" and whether the mainland's flying entities enter the so-called "12-nautical-mile airspace and sea area" completely depends entirely on the subjective judgment of the front-line armed personnel, and even says that they can completely use this as an excuse, and whether the mainland side really carries out an attack or not is entirely up to them, and no one can be a fair judge. If the Taiwan authorities have really authorized the front-line personnel to open fire and carry out so-called "self-defense counterattacks" as long as such a verdict is upheld, then, in view of the current basic situation of increasingly intensive "interaction" between the armed forces of the two sides of the strait, it is highly probable that a misfire will occur as a result, and the possibility of the Taiwan military launching a military sneak attack cannot be underestimated.
The emergence of such a new situation and trend is not a whim or impulse of the "Taiwan independence" forces, but has a profound strategic background.
First of all, the Taiwan authorities no longer bother to establish good relations with the mainland
As everyone knows, the mainland has always been eager to have good relations with Taiwan, because peaceful reunification is impossible if relations are not good. The reason is very simple, for example, the relationship between the two families is not good, and it is difficult to maintain the unity of the family, not to mention the mainland and Taiwan, two regimes with different attributes. It can be said that good relations and close feelings are indispensable prerequisites for achieving peaceful reunification. Therefore, under the demand for peaceful reunification, the mainland side has for a long time made great efforts to pull relations with Taiwan from top to bottom and from all quarters, and has made unfounded claims, saying that if it really wants to improve relations, it must come up with real money and silver, and it must deliver economic benefits, and at the same time, it must also stabilize the situation and not cause trouble in the Taiwan Strait, that is, maintain the so-called situation of cross-strait peace, stability, exchanges, and integrated development.
The Taiwan authorities have completely seen through such an attempt by the mainland. Over the past many years, from Taiwan's ruling clique to various figures, they have all recognized this point, and they have also settled on this point, and all of them have shrewdly calculated and reaped huge political, economic, and other benefits from it.
Now, however, the Taiwan authorities have begun to disdain these things, and they are already very impatient with this and do not want to continue to have good relations with the mainland, and the little economic benefits provided by the mainland can no longer satisfy their greedy appetite, and now they are all the more eager to push Taiwan to speed up its wild run on the road of "real independence" and "clear independence." Against such a background, a stable and peaceful environment has become useless to them, and only the turbulent environment and background of fierce conflicts can be conducive to their schemes, to allow them to take advantage of the opportunity, and to help them take advantage of the chaos and interpret the "Taiwan independence" act to a new level. To put it bluntly, it is now the "Taiwan independence" forces that are letting go of their hands and feet, and they are pressing forward step by step to change the status quo on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. To this end, it is necessary for them to comprehensively and thoroughly undermine the so-called general environment for cross-strait peaceful development.
Second, the Taiwan authorities are doing their utmost to kidnap the hegemonic empire and the Western bloc
The "Taiwan independence" forces have been used by the White House authorities as a strategic tool of the hegemonic empire, and at the same time, this force is also accustomed to relying on foreign countries to gain self-respect, and has tried its best to assert itself by kidnapping the hegemon. They are soberly aware that the shift in the global strategic and strategic focus of the hegemonic bloc and the "strategic competition" with China are a godsend for them, which can be met but cannot be sought, and that more and greater forces of the hegemonic empire can be gathered in the Asia-Pacific region and even around the Taiwan Strait.
It is precisely because they are fully aware of their own strategic value and status that they not only "rely on foreign countries to gain self-respect" when facing the mainland, but also pamper themselves in the face of hegemony, and they want to attract and absorb the hegemon's forces and trigger the hegemon's intervention by causing trouble and creating crises, and they want to attract the forces of the United States and the West to the periphery of the Taiwan Strait to the maximum extent with conflicts and crises that attract people's attention. This is a typical trick to lure the wolf into the house, and since ancient times, traitors of all dynasties and dynasties have wanted to do such acts at critical moments. Because only such an act can greatly boost their power and boost their insidious plans. Shi Jingjiao, the emperor of the Sixteen Kingdoms period, did this, and Wu Sangui, who was angry at the crown during the Ming and Qing dynasties, still did this, and now the Taiwan authorities, under the control and control of the "Taiwan independence" forces, are eager to do so. This is not only in line with the laws of history, but also has no political surprises at all.
Finally, the turbulent surrounding environment has stimulated the ambitions of the Taiwan authorities
Against this background, China will inevitably face multiple and multi-faceted provocations and challenges, from the Karakoram and Himalayas, through Myanmar, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula.
The fundamental reason for this is the need for the hegemonic bloc to snipe and suppress China. To carry out strategic competition with China, it is inevitable to launch and launch all kinds of offensive actions against China, not only politically and economically, but also militarily. For this reason, the hegemonic empire's hollow efforts to provoke and drive its lackeys to constantly provoke and harass China have become the proper meaning of the topic. However, the hostile forces in the surrounding areas vainly want to take advantage of the hegemon as a backer, take advantage of the characteristics of today's China, which does not want to cause trouble and always wants to calm things down, and is afraid of hegemony and even war, to take risks and speculate, and vainly hope to demonstrate their value and reap benefits by provoking and challenging China. India is doing this, the Philippines is doing this, South Korea is still doing this, and Japan is more insidious and more serious than all of these forces.
Under such circumstances, the Taiwan authorities are not willing to be lonely, and they are also itching and eager to try, and they are eager to reach out and get involved in it. They want to gain the initiative by making military provocations and making troubles, so as to take the mainland by surprise. It is conceivable that if Taiwan's armed forces launch an attack on the mainland, the "international public opinion" set off by the "international community" will be overwhelmingly pressed against the Chinese Government, and the public intellectual clique and pro-US Western forces in China will also set off an earth-shattering wave of "anti-war," "safeguarding economic development," and "opening up to the outside world," exerting unprecedentedly powerful pressure on the Chinese Government. Under such circumstances, the mainland side will inevitably face multiple difficulties, and it is worthless and meaningless to fight militarily with the other side, and it is not prepared for a large-scale and all-out war, and it is not within the established plan. Politically, diplomatically, there are still many obstacles that have not yet been overcome; There are still many loopholes and shortcomings in the economy, and so on. To a considerable extent, it will put the mainland in a passive and embarrassing position.
It is precisely against the above-mentioned background that the "Taiwan independence" forces are likely to make a reckless military move, provoke and set off a war, and create a fait accompli. Such a danger should not be underestimated, and it must not be taken lightly.
Note: The author of this article is Zhang Zhikun, a core member of the "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank", and is an original work on this platform.