laitimes

The real reason for the drop limit of Cialis. Why are Fed rate cuts accompanied by major emergencies?

author:Satoko Wang

Once the market falls, investors will look for the most straightforward attribution.

As a result, Cialis fell and fell into heavy shackles.

The reason seems to be that the benchmark of new energy vehicles has fallen to the limit, driving the overall decline of the new energy vehicle sector, and then dragging the market to a new low.

As for why Cialis fell to the limit, it has been placed in a secondary position.

According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on June 25, the product competitiveness of the overall passenger car market fell by 4.6 points month-on-month, hitting a new low in a year.

The real reason for the drop limit of Cialis. Why are Fed rate cuts accompanied by major emergencies?

This may be the reason for GF Fund's liquidation, or it may be the reason for the cold in the high places.

But it is not the last straw that crushes the camel, but whether the body can bear the weight in the early stage?

If the downward trend of the market is blamed on Cialis, the small shareholders of Cialis can also blame the downward trend of the market.

In other words, in the market of "easy to fall and difficult to rise", it is the rational choice of the people and shareholders to "settle down" as soon as possible.

"Before an avalanche, no snowflake is innocent" is a better way to explain the real cause.

From the perspective of offshore yuan, the depreciation occurred after 11 o'clock, about 50 minutes earlier than the decline of A-shares.

The real reason for the drop limit of Cialis. Why are Fed rate cuts accompanied by major emergencies?

OpenAI's public opinion on stopping the use of APIs in non-supported countries and regions was fermenting on the same day, and AI-related stocks were among the top decliners.

The real reason for the drop limit of Cialis. Why are Fed rate cuts accompanied by major emergencies?

Including chips, semiconductors, and even Huawei concepts.

Investors are reassessing whether the advanced productivity of AI will be "controlled by others"?

Although there are still more than ten days before the judgment day of July 9.

But for a country that has never been surpassed in imitation, this concern is not unfounded.

Of course, we believe that there are always more ways than difficulties, and curves and detours can always cover up the phenomenon of large model "nesting dolls" in the end.

As for the attribution of the market decline, if it is more true, it will be found that there are early clues.

We can see the subtleties of the exchange rate as a short-term anchor for A-shares (there will be intervention in the medium and long term).

The offshore yuan on the day was not exactly in sync with the US dollar index.

The real reason for the drop limit of Cialis. Why are Fed rate cuts accompanied by major emergencies?

The depreciation of the yuan is 11:13, and the strengthening of the dollar is 13:33.

As can be seen from the chart, while the dollar strengthened, the yuan (blue line) depreciated twice.

At 13:00 on the same day, Japan announced that the annual rate of supermarket sales in May was as low as 0.1%.

This provided a hint of confidence in the strengthening of the dollar half an hour later, and the yen naturally weakened in tandem.

Therefore, the downward trend of A-shares has its own weak factors, as well as external interference factors.

If we take it a step further, we have to look forward to the events of the week.

From the perspective of endogenous forces, Thursday's above-scale industrial profits will decline month-on-month, and Sunday's manufacturing PMI will continue to sink underwater.

From the perspective of external forces, Fed Governor Bowman's speech on Tuesday night cast a shadow over "good expectations".

"There are multiple upside risks to inflation, and no rate cuts are expected in 2024."

Such a hawkish tone came as a surprise to everyone (the market had widely expected 1-2 rate cuts this year).

This contradicts the imminent downside in inflation (PCE released on Friday), giving the market optimism.

On the worst side, going against the Fed will hardly end well. Because the data and interpretation are in their hands.

On the bright side, the Fed will always have someone to blackface to hedge against the market's euphoria, and then achieve the goal of bringing down inflation.

Whether it was a "kind reminder" from the Fed or "deliberate" is not yet known.

But to be clear, no matter how hawkish the hawks are, a "rate cut" is sure to come.

Sooner or later in time cannot erase the damage to the economy caused by "high interest rates".

For the sake of the economy, or for the sake of inflation?

For the sake of the election, or for the sake of employment?

This is where the Fed struggles right now.

And the explosion of mines often occurs after constant entanglement, constant hesitation, and constant delay.

So, going back in time, why are the Fed's interest rate cuts accompanied by major emergencies?

In fact, there are early signs, but we can turn a blind eye, after all, the Fed, which looks at important data and speaks, has not yet reached the last moment of life and death.

The above is purely a personal emotional display, chatting and laughing.