How strong was Yugoslavia? In the seventies, 40 per cent of households owned a car, a television and a refrigerator almost every two days, and the entertainment and tourism industries were extremely prosperous.
With a population of 20 million, there are records of 16 million entries and exits per year, not to mention that in the early 80s, there was already a per capita per capita income of $3,200, which was a quarter of that of the United States at that time and far higher than that of a group of socialist fraternal countries.
Tito
Moreover, Yugoslavia at that time also had a strong division, and the weapons were also quite advanced, known as the "Balkan Tiger".
However, the disintegration of such a regional power in less than a decade has made Yugoslavia a historical term, which is embarrassing.
Of course, the disintegration of Yugoslavia was actually doomed from the beginning, although the strongman Tito led Yugoslavia to strength, but also buried the dark mines of classification, coupled with the United States continued to fuel the flames behind the scenes, it is strange that Yugoslavia, which was already internally unstable, did not disintegrate.
Streets of Yugoslavia in the eighties
It can be said that the process of the disintegration of Yugoslavia has important warning significance for all countries in the world.
Yugoslavia in the early days was a pawn in the eyes of the United States and the Soviet Union
On November 29, 1945, Tito announced the establishment of the Federal People's Republic of Yugoslavia, as a socialist country, Tito instinctively wanted to maintain friendly relations with the Soviet Union, relying on the help of the Soviet Union to carry out post-war economic reconstruction, so that the people of the Balkan Peninsula could live a good life.
The streets of Yugoslavia in 1946
But now the Soviet Union is not having a good time, and it will take not only time, but also money to restore the pre-war economy.
In the early years, the Soviet Union's industry was able to develop rapidly, all of which were obtained by exporting a large amount of wheat and other agricultural products to Western Europe, but now Western Europe is also in ruins, and it is also in urgent need of economic recovery, so the Soviet Union thought of the United States, hoping that the United States and the Soviet Union would be friendly and obtain funds from the United States.
Seeing that the United States proposed the Marshall Plan, the Soviet Union waited for the United States to include it, but what the Soviets did not expect was that the essence of World War II was that the United States used Germany to cripple Britain, France and the Soviet Union, and it was best to let them die together, while they themselves crippled Japan, became the only power on the blue star, and then used their hegemony to monopolize the global market.
Marshall Plan publicity
So the United States will come to the aid of the USSR? Ideology aside, the United States would not have come to the aid of the USSR in terms of interests.
On the other hand, aid is not free, and the aided countries can only use the aid funds to buy American goods and completely become their own markets, and this is the essence of US aid.
Therefore, no matter how the Soviet Union made overtures, the United States would not come to the aid of the Soviet Union.
It's just that Stalin didn't figure it out at first, and he tried every means to have good relations with the United States, constantly compromised with Britain and the United States on the Mediterranean issue, and even agreed to the internationalization of the Danube for free navigation.
What is this about Yugoslavia? Really, because Stalin also wanted Yugoslavia to compromise and make concessions on the issue of Trieste (located in northeastern Italy), which Yugoslavia himself controlled, and even divided Trieste into Zone A and Zone B without consulting Tito, with Zone A including the city and port, and Zone B being the suburbs.
Zones A and B
Yugoslavia, on the other hand, could only get Zone B, which was under the jurisdiction of Britain and the United States.
What does this make Tito think? He regarded the Soviet Union as his big brother, but the Soviet Union used itself as a weight, and as long as the conditions were right, it directly sold to Europe and the United States, which caused Tito's dissatisfaction and was also the fundamental reason for Tito's break with the Soviet Union.
It's just that Yugoslavia is not qualified enough to negotiate at the negotiating table, so it can only pinch its nose and continue to maintain relations with the Soviet Union.
With the beginning of the Cold War in 1947, Tito believed that Stalin would consolidate relations with Yugoslavia, but Stalin believed that since the break with the West, the importance of the Mediterranean Sea was greatly reduced, and economic ties with Western Europe could not be established, and Yugoslavia was not so important.
However, Tito was dissatisfied with his status and wanted to unite other Eastern European countries to form a federal power, which caused Stalin's dissatisfaction.
Taking advantage of the fact that Yugoslavia is now weak, Stalin beat Tito hard, hoping to make Tito completely obey the orders of the Soviet Union.
Tito
And if Tito succumbed? Then it will inevitably damage some of Yugoslavia's interests, and it will inevitably be opposed by some people, and once the opposition force grows bigger and is more obedient to the Soviet Union than Tito, then Tito can abandon it at any time.
In order to keep his position, Tito could only make a complete break with the Soviet Union.
To break with the Soviet Union, you can only make overtures to the United States
After breaking with the Soviet Union, Tito could only find a way to rebuild the post-war economy on his own, and the Soviet Union could form a trade circle with a group of Eastern European countries without Western Europe, but Tito did not, because he was kicked out of this trade circle.
In 1953, he visited England
Originally, Yugoslavia also adopted the Stalinist model to develop its economy, but now because of the collectivization of agriculture, the grain production has declined, and there is no food, and there is no way to develop industry, and in the long run, even the most basic food supply for the people can no longer be satisfied.
If you don't have anything to eat, how can you rebuild? There was no way, Tito could only find the United States and urgently signed a military agreement with the United States, which in exchange for valuable aid, and the United States was also willing to balance the Soviet Union in the Balkans, and gave aid readily, of course, it could also infiltrate Yugoslavia through the economy, which is the fundamental purpose of the United States.
Yugoslavia location
But in essence, this aid is actually to change the trade circle from the former Soviet Union-Eastern Europe to the United States-Western Europe, and therefore, Tito must rely on the United States.
F86 jet fighter with U.S. assistance
In order to prevent these bureaucrats from becoming bigger, Tito thought of a way, which is to adopt social ownership, which also has another name: ownerless ownership, just look at the name, and the employees of the enterprise are in a state of no organization and no management.
This strengthened the power of local self-government, and while some bureaucrats would still have gained some authority, it provided at least some checks and balances on them.
And this line of thinking was also the beginning of Tito's strengthening of the power of the union republics.
Suppressing Serbia, in essence, asserting its own position
Tito chose to develop agriculture and abolish agricultural collectivization, so that the production enthusiasm of the small peasants who withdrew from agricultural collectivization has been improved, and the problem of food shortage has been alleviated.
Then they used agriculture to feed back to industry, deliberately raising the price of industrial products so that they could buy more grain, which is equivalent to cutting meat in agriculture.
In order to ensure the smooth operation of the policy, Tito strengthened the army and built a strong Yugoslav army, on the one hand, to prevent the economic bureaucracy from rebelling, and on the other hand, to suppress Serbia.
Yugoslav fighter and female pilot in 1968
Why suppress Serbia? It is not that there are too many Serbs, but that Serbia and Macedonia were the most important grain production bases in Yugoslavia at that time, and since they rely on grain to feed the industry, it is natural to completely control Serbia, and only by controlling this place can economic stability be guaranteed.
Relying on Tito's continuous heavy investment, the Yugoslav army became the fourth largest military force in the world at that time, as long as the army was controlled, it could not only prevent the Soviet Union and NATO, but also stabilize its own position, and it was also Tito's confidence to stay in power for a long time.
Tito lays mines: to raise the power of the autonomous republics
The Balkan Peninsula has always been known as a powder keg, and the most fundamental reason is that it is culturally diverse, there are many ethnic groups, and there are many contradictions.
There are many cultures, many nationalities, and many contradictions
Tito integrated the Balkans in a strongman posture, but the Serbs and Croats in the territory have long had a lot of grievances, Serbia thinks it has a large population and wants to dominate the discourse, while Croatia thinks that it is economically developed, Serbia has been sucking blood, which is unfair.
Tito, on the other hand, has always implemented the strategy of suppressing the Serbs, choosing to split Serbia, and setting up two autonomous provinces of Kosovo and Vojvodina in the north and south respectively, of which Kosovo is stuffed with Albanians in addition to Serbs, and Vojvodia is stuffed with Hungarians to avoid the Serbs becoming dominant.
One south and one north, splitting Serbia
In addition, Tito also forcibly divided the Serbian nation, which was originally just a nation, but according to different beliefs and cultures, he called those who believed in Muslims Bosniaks, and asked them to establish the Republic of Montenegro, and Macedonian-speaking people were divided into Macedonians, and the Republic of Macedonia was established, etc., artificially reducing the proportion of Serbs in the population.
Yugoslav ethnic distribution
After the power of these autonomous republics was raised, Yugoslavia, as a whole, only retained the necessary powers such as defense, foreign affairs, justice and internal affairs, and the local authority was too large, and there were obviously problems, such as the "Zagreb Spring", which is the same as the "Prague Spring".
And in the sixties and seventies, Europe and the United States had been doing things in Eastern Europe, and this trend also spread to Yugoslavia.
In 1967, a wave of independence began to rise when some Croats declared that Croats should use their own language.
In 1971, the tide finally broke out, with some arguing that Croatia should become independent and join the United Nations, known as the "Zagreb Spring".
Obviously, this was to divide Yugoslavia, and Tito immediately sent a large army to quell the rebellion, which quelled the tide.
This incident obviously reminded Tito that he had to rein in local power.
However, Tito did not care, and in 1974, he once again raised the power of the autonomous republics, and even allowed local governments to build their own armies, which were border guards.
On the surface, it is Tito's "confusion", but in essence it also impeachs the Serbs
On the surface, it seems that Tito is "confused", but in essence, it still suppresses the Serbs, after all, the Yugoslav army has a large number of Serbs, and it is okay to suppress the non-Serbs, let them suppress their own people, and if they don't do it, they will mutiny, which gave Tito the idea of setting up a border guard, of course, nominally to defend against foreign interference.
It's just that this way is tantamount to laying mines, after all, a normal country will not over-strengthen the power of the military, and this power is also dispersed to various autonomous republics, which will cost you old death.
In this way, the place will inevitably become bigger, and eventually a big mine of division will be buried.
Was Tito "confused"? No, what he did was purely self-preservation, in fact, it was a disguised weakening of the regular Yugoslav army.
It also led directly to the magical result: the Croatian rebellion, which was not only unscathed, but even expanded the power to control the army.
In this way, although the autonomous republics have armies, they do not have absolute superiority, and can only curry favor with Tito, who is stronger than them, so as to avoid being deprived of power or get more benefits, and Tito can sit firmly on the Diaoyu Tai, which is Tito's original intention.
No one can stay in power for a long time
It's just that the premise of such checks and balances is that Tito can stay in power for a long time, but is it possible? Obviously, it is impossible, people will always die, and once there are no strong people to come to power after Tito, the autonomous republics will inevitably make trouble.
To be honest, did Tito see this hidden danger? I must see it, but he can't help it, first of all, he wants to stabilize his position, and secondly, the benefits are sent down, and it is very difficult to take them back, not to mention that this power is too big, and he can't take it back rashly, in case of a collective rebellion in the local area, he can't suppress it.
Therefore, I can only insist on going my own way, even if I destroy the Great Wall, but for the sake of my own stability, I must do so.
Fueled by the United States, the disintegration of Yugoslavia was a foregone conclusion
On May 4, 1980, Tito died, and with his death, the world situation changed dramatically.
Tito's funeral was attended by 208 delegations from 128 countries around the world
In the sixties and seventies, the Soviet Union had the upper hand in the Cold War, but in the eighties, the situation took a sharp turn and the Soviet Union went on the defensive.
After Tito's death, the situation in Yugoslavia took a sharp turn for the worse
Originally, Yugoslavia was on the left and right, relying on the United States to resist the Soviet Union and engage in balanced diplomacy, but now the Soviet Union is weak and can only support the Soviet Union to contain the American threat, although Yugoslavia once had a short recovery period during the Khrushchev and Brezhnev periods.
However, Tito engaged in a "non-aligned movement," which not only the United States did not like, but even the Soviet Union hated it, because after all, the non-aligned movement became an obstacle to the Soviet Union's expansion into Africa and West Asia.
Nam
Moreover, at this time, Yugoslavia did not have much use value in the eyes of the Soviet Union, and could not become a big bargaining chip in negotiations between itself and the Western world, so the Soviet Union had a love for Yugoslavia.
Yugoslavia, seeing that the Soviet Union sent troops to Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan successively, treated allies and friendly countries so rudely, that Yugoslavia remained worried about the security alliance between the two sides.
As a result, the once all-you-can-eat method of both ends of the source is no longer effective.
As for the United States? Now that the balance of power between Eastern Europe and Western Europe has become unbalanced, there is no need for the United States to draw Yugoslavia against the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia seems to be a small Soviet Union, which has naturally become the experimental object of American dismemberment.
However, compared with the United States, Western Europe obviously wanted to dismember Yugoslavia immediately, after all, a unified Yugoslavia would inevitably threaten the status of France and Germany, so Yugoslavia must be disintegrated.
To tell the truth, the United States originally wanted to use Yugoslavia as a pillar to balance France and Germany, but France and Germany actually made concessions, preferring many small countries to join NATO and dismember Yugoslavia. Direct arrangement, agitation of the Yugoslav civil war became a common topic in the Western camp at that time.
As soon as Germany was reunified, it couldn't wait to make its mark on the international stage
The most urgent of these was the newly unified Germany, which wanted to get more of the benefits of the Central and Eastern European table.
As for Yugoslavia at this time, it is now difficult to protect itself, because the second oil crisis broke out, Yugoslavia's economy is not as good as year by year, and the serious economic crisis has led to a serious political crisis.
Later, the Serbian-born Mishelovic vigorously promoted Greater Serbianism, which eventually led to the Serbian purge of Albanians in 1989, which exacerbated the antagonism within the alliance and became the trigger for the disintegration of Yugoslavia.
Not only that, but in the Union, the economically developed Croatia and Slovenia needed to pay money to support the underdeveloped regions, but now this money is temporarily not paid, since this money can not be paid, then other money can also not be paid, other autonomous republics have withheld customs duties and federal taxes, and even set up economic barriers to each other.
In order to compromise, Yugoslavia was again forced to implement a multi-party system, and Europe and the United States saw that the time was ripe for the dismemberment of Yugoslavia, and they took advantage of the Yugoslav crisis to add fuel to the fire, and it was Germany that took the lead in the charge.
Germany transported enough arms to Slovenia and Croatia through Austria to arm 100,000 troops, set up intelligence services in the two autonomous republics, sent military advisers to assist in their rebellion, and sent mercenaries to assist them in fear of the poor use of advanced weapons by the people of these two regions.
Croatian War
Of course, these are not free, after Croatia became independent, it was necessary to lease the island of Brijuni in the Adriatic Sea to Germany for 70 years, and to give the former Tito resort to Vanka Island to German Chancellor Kohl's family.
And the implementation of this plan was Croatian President Tudjman, who was originally a history teacher, as early as the 70s, plotted secession, was imprisoned by Tito for three years, and after being released from prison, he was valued by Germany, and finally seized the highest power in Croatia.
The Yugoslav civil war broke out in March 1991, only ten years after Tito's death, but the former Yugoslav army was no match for Croatia and Slovenia, and the two countries were completely independent.
On December 23, 1991, Germany was the first to announce the recognition of these two countries, which became known as the Kohl Declaration, which was an appetizer before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Now that Croatia and Slovenia have become independent, the other autonomous republics have declared their independence.
In 1992, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia was officially dissolved into the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (mainly Serbs), Croatia, Slovenia, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia has become a wrestling ground for Europe and the United States
Originally, the matter ended here, but in fact, Yugoslavia after the disintegration was still in civil strife, after all, Europe and the United States had their own careful thoughts.
Among them, Germany wants to use Croatia as a springboard to annex Bosnia-Herzegovina, which is dominated by Bosnian ethnicity, into Croatia, while France does not want Germany to dominate, after all, they cooperate because of the fight against the Soviet Union, and now that the Soviet Union is gone, it naturally wants to dominate the European discourse.
As for Britain and the United States, they also do not want France and Germany to dominate the discourse in Europe, and want to weaken France and Germany, especially the United States, although they support Germany in dismembering Yugoslavia, but his purpose is to establish a Balkan federation that obeys his orders, not to cheapen France and Germany.
At this time, Saudi Arabia also wanted to take advantage of the danger and wanted to get a piece of the Balkan Peninsula, so the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia became a wrestling ground between Europe and the United States, which eventually contributed to the civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has become a wrestling field for major powers
Among them, Germany and Saudi Arabia respectively supported the war between the Croats and the Bosnians, but under the agitation of Britain and the United States, the Croats, Bosnians, and unwilling Serbs could not help anyone, and they could not gain the advantage, and finally the United States intervened to mediate, won the dominance of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and then signed the "Dayton Accords".
The United States believes that the "Dayton Accords" have prevented Croatia from annexing Bosnia and Herzegovina in its entirety, and that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia should be grateful to Dade, and then take the opportunity to propose that Kosovo become independent and let NATO be stationed in Kosovo, and that the United States will help the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia merge Bosnia and Herzegovina.
However, allowing Kosovo to become independent is tantamount to splitting the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia again, and also allowing NATO troops to be stationed, and no one will agree to this, and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia's refusal will arouse the dissatisfaction of the United States, so it can only dismember the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia again.
Kosovo War
At this point, the Kosovo War broke out, and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia knew that this was a war that was bound to be lost, but it still fought hard.
In 2003, after the Kosovo War, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was forced to change its name to the Republic of Serbia and Montenegro, referred to as the Republic of Serbia and Montenegro.
But the dismemberment continued, with Serbia and Montenegro becoming independent in 2006 and Kosovo declaring independence in 2008. At this point, the Balkan tigers were completely shattered.
The Balkan Tigers shattered to the ground
The collapse of Yugoslavia began before the Soviet Union, although the strongman Tito single-handedly created a powerful Yugoslavia, but for the sake of balance and maintaining its own status, Tito did not build Yugoslavia into a strict federal system like the Soviet Union, but gave each union republic great autonomy.
So far, some signs of division have been sown, but it is easy to give away power, but it is difficult to take it back, since Tito, there has not been a person with enough prestige to lead Yugoslavia, and the centrifugal force of the various union republics has naturally increased greatly.
In addition, in the 80s, the world was turbulent, and all forces were competing in the Balkan Peninsula, especially the United States, which added fuel to the fire, and even the big brother of the Soviet Union was about to fall, how could Yugoslavia be left alone?