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China's countermeasures have been effective, the EU will reduce tariffs, Scholz proposed a compromise plan, and a turning point has appeared

author:Professor Su Hao

According to the Global Times, the US media quoted sources on the 26th as saying that the EU has lowered the proportion of tariffs expected to be imposed on China, with the maximum tariff from 38.1% to 37.6%. At a press conference held by China's Ministry of Commerce on June 27, a reporter asked whether the trade dispute between China and the EU would end in a similar way to the 2013 dispute between the two sides over the photovoltaic industry. He Yadong, spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that China and the EU are in close communication on tariff matters and are holding consultations as soon as possible. It is hoped that the EU will work with China to promote a solution that neither China nor the EU disagrees with, so as to avoid the aggravation of disputes between the two sides and the damage to China-EU economic and trade relations.

The EU's slight tariff cuts are the result of a countermeasure by China, which is conducting an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork products. The results of the anti-subsidy investigation on EU brandy will be released, and the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products has also submitted an application to the Ministry of Commerce of China for the implementation of a countervailing investigation on EU mechanical and electrical products. A countervailing investigation into EU dairy products is also in the pipeline.

China's countermeasures have been effective, the EU will reduce tariffs, Scholz proposed a compromise plan, and a turning point has appeared

As China has taken countermeasures in a number of areas, the EU has slightly lowered its expected tariffs, which has sent a signal of easing to a certain extent. It is a reflection of the progress made in the China-EU consultations. Regarding the EU's action of imposing tariffs, Koningmann, chairman of the German SME Economic Union, criticized that the EU did not consult enterprises and member states on relevant actions. It will bring a storm of China's imposition of tariffs on the EU, and the result will be a shock to the EU economy and a rise in inflation.

Germany and China have in-depth cooperation in the industrial industry chain, and the EU's tariffs on China will greatly affect the business of German companies in China, which also makes Germany the most opposed country in the EU to impose tariffs. It tries to act as a buffer, a mediator. The German Minister of Economy, Digitalization and Transport visited China to promote China-EU negotiations. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz proposed an intermediate plan on June 27, suggesting that China and the EU impose an equal tariff of 15% on automobile imports. Scholz sought an amicable solution to the dispute between China and the EU in July. The EU resisted Scholz's proposal, believing that it was inappropriate and could reduce the EU's leverage in the Sino-EU negotiations.

China's countermeasures have been effective, the EU will reduce tariffs, Scholz proposed a compromise plan, and a turning point has appeared

The European Commission issued a refusal, saying that Scholz's claim was not optional. The EU has signaled that it is seeking tariffs to offset China's advantage in the field of electric vehicles. In order to achieve what the EU calls "fairness", this practice is obviously contrary to WTO rules. The successive trade protectionist actions of the United States and the European Union indicate that the period of Western dominance of the global economy is coming to an end. For EU member states to overturn the European Commission's move, 15 countries with more than 65% of the EU's population need to jointly oppose it. This condition is basically impossible to meet in the current European Union. It also means that the EU cannot be expected to self-terminate its tax hikes. What China can do is to continue to increase the cost of EU tax hikes with reciprocal countermeasures, and promote the formation of a new trade balance between China and the EU under the reciprocal deterrence of both sides.

On June 27, the 27 EU countries held a summit and passed von der Leyen's re-election resolution with 25 votes in favor and Hungary and Italy abstaining.

China's countermeasures have been effective, the EU will reduce tariffs, Scholz proposed a compromise plan, and a turning point has appeared

Von der Leyen's continued tenure for the next term, as the main promoter of trade restrictions on China within the EU, shows that the EU will maintain the continuity of peace with the United States in trade confrontation with China. On June 26, China's ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, slammed the EU's accusations of subsidies to China as untenable. Lu Shaye pointed out that the competitiveness brought by more than 20 years of technology accumulation is the substantive reason for the rise of China's electric vehicles. rather than relying on government subsidies. Lu Shaye pointed out that in the late 1990s, when China was conducting research on electric vehicles and battery technology, the United States and the West were still immersed in the comfort of their fuel vehicles. found itself lagging behind, that is, a large number of accusations and attacks against China.

The EU should reverse the tariffs that are not in line with WTO rules and are detrimental to the common interests of China and the EU, otherwise it will face greater countermeasures from China.