1. Analysis of the domestic methanol market
1.1. Methanol market price analysis
In June 2024, the methanol market price index averaged 2209.45 per month, down 154.21 from May and 6.98% month-on-month.
Mainland market: This month, the domestic methanol market price continued to operate weakly, with the restart and stable operation of the pre-maintenance device, as well as the shutdown of some olefin units, its supporting methanol is mainly exported, the overall supply of the market is abundant, and with the arrival of high temperatures, some traditional downstream markets have entered the off-season of consumption, and the end market demand performance is not good. Towards the end of the month, with the futures market to stop falling and rising, the port spot market quotation was slightly raised, and the market transaction in some areas improved, but the Tianjin Bohua olefin plant was temporarily stopped, the demand side was further weakened, and the methanol market continued to operate weakly.
Port market: This month, the price of the port spot market has been lowered, the high level of the futures market has fallen, and the increase in the circulating supply of goods in the port market, coupled with the continued shutdown of some olefin units in East China under cost pressure, the delivery speed of the mainstream reservoir area has slowed down, the inventory of the port regional market has shown an increasing trend, and the transaction atmosphere of the spot market in the region is limited.
Forecast for the future: supply side: with the restart of the pre-maintenance device and stable operation, the overall supply performance of the mainland market is relatively abundant, after entering July, the mainland market still has a planned shutdown of the device, Guanghui, Changqing, Shandong Union and other devices have a shutdown plan, but at the same time, most of the early shutdown devices plan to resume production, and some olefin units are planned to be overhauled, methanol procurement or significant decline, hedging against each other, the methanol spot market can still be fully circulated. On the demand side, the current traditional downstream market demand has entered the off-season of consumption, and the domestic regions are expected to continue to have high temperature and rainy weather, and the traditional downstream of methanol is mostly in the off-season of consumption, and the demand for methanol may be expected to weaken further. At present, although there is a device shutdown maintenance next month, but most of the early shutdown devices plan to resume production, under the mutual hedging, the mainland market supply is still abundant, and the traditional downstream is in the off-season of consumption, the market supply and demand contradiction in the short term is still not significantly improved, it is expected that the mainland methanol market will continue to fluctuate at a low level in July, and it is necessary to pay close attention to macro policies, crude oil, coal prices, on-site device operation and downstream demand follow-up in the later stage.
1.2. Methanol market price chart
1.3. Comparison of domestic methanol market prices this month
Unit: yuan/ton
1.4. The price trend chart of the international methanol market this month
2. Statistics on the operation of domestic methanol industry equipment
2.1. Maintenance of domestic methanol manufacturers
2.2. Operation of international methanol plant
The 1.8 million tons of methanol plant in the United States has been restarted and returned to normal. The Petronas small unit was shut down for maintenance for 2 months on June 10; The large unit was overhauled on the 13th and resumed after a week. Iran's Di Polymer Arian 1.65 million tons plant is operating normally, and the plant is operating normally.
3. Analysis of methanol production and start of operation this month
3.1. Analysis of China's methanol production in June 2024
In June 2024, the output of methanol in the mainland has increased compared with the previous period, and after entering June, although there are still devices in the northwest, Shandong, Shanxi and Chongqing regions have entered the maintenance state, but as the domestic methanol spring inspection is gradually coming to an end this month, most of the early shutdown devices have resumed production, and the operating rate of the methanol industry has increased significantly compared with the previous month, coupled with the export of methanol from an olefin plant in Inner Mongolia, the market supply resources continue to be loose, at present, it is estimated that the output of the mainland market in June may remain at about 6.20-6.25 million tons. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the operation of the equipment in the field.
3.2. Statistics on the operating rate of methanol manufacturers
In June, the overall start of the mainland market increased compared with the previous month, with the restart and stable operation of the pre-maintenance equipment, the overall supply performance of the mainland market is relatively abundant, although there are still devices in the northwest, Shandong, Shanxi and Chongqing regions have entered the maintenance state, but as the domestic methanol spring inspection gradually comes to an end this month, most of the pre-shutdown devices resumed production, and the operating rate of the methanol industry increased significantly compared with the previous month.
3.3. Analysis of the start of the methanol industry chain
With the continuous decline in methanol prices, the profits of the methanol downstream industry have been repaired compared with the previous period, but some traditional downstream industries have been lowered compared with the previous period due to the off-season of consumption. Among them, the start of the dimethyl ether market was reduced by 1.27% to 15.48%, and the start of the MTO/P industry was reduced to 67.68%, of which the 1.68 million tons/year methanol unit + 460,000 tons/year olefin plant of Datang Duolun was in normal operation. The Yulin (Yunenghua) plant of China Coal was extended to return to normal. Zhongtian Hechuang's 3.6 million tons/year methanol plant + 600,000 tons/year and 770,000 tons/year MTO plant are currently being shut down for maintenance. The 1 million tons/year coal-to-methanol plant in Inner Mongolia Jiutai is in normal operation, and the 600,000 tons/year MTO unit was shut down for maintenance on June 2, and the restart time is to be determined. Tianjin Bohua's 600,000 tons/year olefin (MTO) plant was shut down. Acetic acid, BDO, MTBE, etc. started to increase compared with the previous period.
4. Analysis of China's methanol import and export data
4.1. Analysis of China's methanol imports in May 2024
According to customs data, in May 024, China's total methanol imports were 1.0636 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.79% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.89%, and the average import price this month was 301.89 US dollars / ton. The cumulative total import volume from January to May 2024 was 5.2453 million tons, a decrease of 92,100 tons or 1.72% year-on-year from the same period last year.
The top five countries in May were Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Trinidad and Tobago, Saudi Arabia and Russia, accounting for 32%, 25%, 12%, 12% and 8% of total imports, respectively.
4.2. Analysis of China's methanol export volume in May 2024
According to customs data, in May 2024, China's methanol exports totaled 11,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37.78% and a month-on-month increase of 3,633.33%, with an average export price of $348.82 per ton this month. From January to May 2024, the cumulative total export of methanol was 22,500 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons or 33.04% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the top three countries in terms of export volume in May: South Korea, Vietnam and Denmark accounted for 56%, 38% and 4% of total exports respectively.
5. Methanol port inventory statistics
5.1. Methanol port inventory statistics
As of June 28, the average monthly inventory in the port area remained at 808,200 tons, an increase of 89,600 tons compared with the previous month, of which, the market inventory in East China increased, the market inventory in Jiangsu increased to 506,800 tons, an increase of 51,800 tons compared with the previous month, and the average monthly inventory in the market in Zhejiang decreased by 1,500 tons to 83,900 tons. During the month, the operation of the international methanol plant was stable, and the arrival of imported cargo remained stable, but the downstream olefin plant started to maintain a low level of shock, and the demand for methanol was not good, resulting in a significant increase in market inventory in the port area.
6. Analysis of the profit and loss of the methanol industry chain
As of June 28, the profit of the domestic coal-to-methanol industry was about 110 yuan, a decrease of about 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous month.
From the perspective of the downstream market, with the decline in methanol prices, the profits of some downstream industries have been repaired compared with the previous period, but they are still in a state of loss, and the olefin industry is still in a state of loss, and the loss of propylene monomer is about 700-1100 yuan/ton in the month. The market price of polypropylene is temporarily stable, the mainstream transaction price is 8000 yuan/ton, and the current loss is about 400-700 yuan/ton. The overall profitability of the traditional downstream market has improved compared with the previous month, the spot price of acetic acid market has fluctuated and fallen, the theoretical profit of the acetic acid industry is about 140-220 yuan, the dimethyl ether industry is currently in a profitable state, the profit of the dimethyl ether industry is about 200 yuan, and the formaldehyde industry is in a shallow loss state, with a loss of about 30 yuan this month.