Friday's A-share Jedi strikes back. By the afternoon, the biggest increase was more than 1.3%. However, what changed suddenly was the liquor sector in the afternoon, and the securities sector joined forces to kill and fall. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index's gains narrowed to 0.73% to close. With such a drastic trend, many friends can't help but ask, can liquor still be saved?
As a purely technical school, here I would like to discuss with you once again the liquor sector. Let's talk about some of my thoughts on the liquor sector. I have every reason to believe that the recent sharp decline in the liquor sector has been a bitter drama for the main force from beginning to end.
First of all, I want to explain from a technical perspective that the probability of the liquor sector rising next is high. Please take a look at the monthly K-line chart of the liquor sector in the figure below.
Liquor monthly chart
From the monthly chart. You can find that the entire liquor plate is in a large monthly flag pattern. And it's pretty standard. At present, it has run to the lower band support of the flag pattern. And after the liquor sector has risen continuously in the early stage, the current flag shock consolidation time has reached 37 months. Moreover, the depth of the correction has retraced to the golden section of the previous big rise and rising band of 0.618. This is a very important target bit. So I have a lot of reason to believe that the liquor sector is likely to rise at the monthly level next.
Second, let's look at the monthly chart of the liquor sector. Let's argue from the perspective of time that the possibility of the next rise is possible.
Liquor monthly candlestick chart
From the monthly K-line chart of Baijiu, we can see that there is a relatively clear symmetrical relationship between the time nodes of the adjustment between the two lows of the monthly level. All of them are about 21 trading months (shown in the red bold line in the chart). 21 is a typical Fibonacci variable number, and at the number node of 21, it is very easy to produce a critical inflection point.
In the chart, we can also see that the time for the adjustment of the 2-month line level and the large band is also about 17 months (the purple thick line in the figure). So from the perspective of time, I have reason to believe that the adjustment is nearing the end.
Finally, we might as well take a look at how several large-scale adjustments in the history of "Brother Baijiu" formed the bottom? Please take a look at the following chart - Kweichow Moutai daily chart (the K-line has been compressed to facilitate the overall view).
Kweichow Moutai daily chart
From the picture above, we can find several typical bottoms in the history of "Brother Baijiu". All have a distinctive feature. It's a typical bottom volume. What does the bottom volume mean? The bottom volume represents the beginning of the main capital to undertake. And once the main funds start to enter the market, it basically means that the bottom is established.
I have observed several representatives of liquor faucets, and they all have a typical bottom-increasing trend. Therefore, I have reason to believe that the main force is taking advantage of the short-term shortcomings of the liquor sector, and even amplifying the short-term negatives, so as to absorb a large number of chips at a low level.
Every time the liquor sector plummets, all kinds of pessimistic remarks are everywhere. What young people don't drink liquor; What two catties of grain and one catty of wine; What price is so high that you can't afford to drink; What is in stock...... Yunyun.
I know that when there is a big fall, there is always a reason to find a reason. Just like when there is a big rise, you also need to find a reason. So as a purely technical person, I don't pay much attention to that.
Ancient poems have clouds, and when you sing about wine, what is your life? Explain melancholy, and when you are confused, you may have to borrow wine to express your feelings; Life must be full of joy, don't make the gold bottle empty to the moon; Explain the highlight moments of your life, or you should also embellish them with wine...... Thousands of years of liquor culture, I don't believe it's over. I think the story of baijiu can be told for another 100 years.
Of course, the above views are just some of my superficial understanding of the liquor sector. Not necessarily right, and it is not considered comprehensively. Therefore, it is for discussion only and is not intended as any investment advice. I also hope that friends who have a deep understanding of the liquor industry will give more valuable opinions and guidance.
Likes are the greatest support for me as a pure technical person.