Japan is not on the menu this time, and it is not just on the chopping board. As the yen exchange rate fell below the 160 mark again, the knife in the hands of the United States no longer hangs, but falls heavily on Japan.
I am afraid that the yen will be in trouble this time.
When the yen depreciated to the 160 yen per dollar mark in April, the Japanese monetary authorities chose to resist. The $37.5 billion reduction in U.S. Treasuries in April and another $47.4 billion in foreign exchange reserves in May were used to save the yen. It turned out that according to relevant agencies, Japan intervened twice and used about 9 trillion yen: First, on April 29, when the yen fell to 160.2 against the US dollar, the Japanese authorities used about 5.5 trillion yen (about 37.5 billion US dollars) to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen. Second, on May 1, the Japanese authorities used 3.5 trillion yen (about 22.5 billion U.S. dollars) to intervene in the foreign exchange market, causing the yen to rise rapidly from 157.7 to 154.2 against the US dollar on that day. The actual figure is higher than that. According to data previously disclosed by the Ministry of Finance, a total of 9.8 trillion yen (about $62.2 billion) was spent on foreign exchange intervention operations between April 26 and May 29.
However, the bear-sellers did not give up because of the intervention of the Japanese monetary authorities, and continued to hover over the yen, gathering momentum while waiting for the opportunity to launch another attack.
Because the current Japan is too suitable for shorting from the economy to the finance.
First, the Japanese stock market hit a new high. The Nikkei has a peak of 41,087 points, and this year's index is 39,583 points. Compared with 1989, when Japan's manufacturing industry was at its peak, the Nikkei stock index reached a maximum of 38,957 points. The Japanese stock market is now a dammed lake. Corresponding to the current level of Japan's manufacturing industry, with such a high stock market index, it is naturally much easier to go short than long.
Second, the Japanese government's debt ratio is 260 percent, which is about twice that of the United States and the highest among developed countries.
Third, the liquidity of Japanese government bonds is particularly poor due to high debt, and more than half of the medium- and long-term government bonds have been bought by the Bank of Japan, and Japan has entered the stage where it can only maintain its basic operation by relying on the central bank to print money to buy government bonds.
Fourth, the Bank of Japan has almost lost its ability to adjust interest rates due to its high debt. Because higher interest rates mean that the Japanese government's interest expenses will blow up the fiscal back, the yen has to fight against the US dollar's benchmark interest rate of 5.25-5.5% at almost zero interest rates.
On June 18, Japan's fifth-largest bank, Norinchukin Bank, suddenly announced that it would sell more than 10 trillion yen (about 460 billion yuan) of U.S. Treasury bonds and European bonds within one year to March 2025 to make up for huge unrealized losses.
Sixth, Japan's manufacturing strength is no longer as strong as it used to be, even if the yen falls so badly, it has not fundamentally improved Japan's import and export data, and the 2023 fiscal year (April 2023 to March 2024) is the same as the previous two fiscal years, with a trade deficit. This is also a manifestation of the severe decline in the strength of Japan's manufacturing industry.
Considering the above factors in Japan itself, the continued decline of the yen is simply the general trend.
If we take into account the US factor, the reason for the yen's fall is even stronger.
This reason can be summed up in one sentence: the United States urgently needs to harvest Japan and replenish its own blood.
It has been 27 months since the US dollar began to raise interest rates, and the US dollar has stayed at a high interest rate of 5.25-5.5% for 11 months, but it has not yet exploded a relatively large economy. This shows that the harvest of the dollar this time is not ideal. The U.S. has already paid high costs, including the collapse of several of its own banks, trillions of dollars in interest payments by the U.S. government alone, a deficit on the Federal Reserve's books, and a halt to U.S. reindustrialization due to interest rate hikes.
If we can't suck enough blood in this interest rate hike cycle, the United States will go into shock due to severe anemia, and if you don't die, you will be severely disabled, and how will you limp in the future? Without the ability to rob finance, and the impossibility of reindustrialization, the problem facing the United States is not as simple as the collapse of US debt liquidity. The economic cycle of the United States will be interrupted, and the various contradictions that have accumulated for a long time and the various problems that have been covered up by the right to speak are likely to explode as a whole.
Switzerland, Canada, and Europe have all cut interest rates, leaving the dollar to stiffen at the high level of high interest rates. Time is running out for the United States. In the face of various temptations and pressures, Dongda, the main target of the plan, held the financial firewall and insisted that the currency could not be freely convertible, so that the plan of the United States to launch a financial war could not be carried out smoothly. Europe has already been sucked in a wave, but it is still necessary to keep Europe and Russia to fight hard, so it can't be sucked too hard. There is no way, Wall Street capital can only start with Japan.
Moreover, a $308 million investment product collateralized by gold commercial real estate in Manhattan defaulted, and there was a thunderstorm. In the most central areas of the United States, commercial real estate, which was previously thought to be impossible to fall, can only be sold at a triple discount. This is the first AAA-rated product crash after the 08 financial crisis, indicating that the real situation of the United States itself is not as optimistic as the statistics, this time only 308 million US dollars of investment defaults, which made the United States very nervous, and by 2025, the amount of commercial real estate loans due in the United States will exceed 1 trillion US dollars. Up to $2.2 trillion in 2027.
The United States itself knows best the seriousness of the problem, so for now, regardless of Japan's loyalty to itself (at least on the surface), let's make a few cuts to slow down and then talk about it.
As we have previously analyzed, Japan has long been one of the targets in the US dollar rate hike harvesting plan. As soon as the plans for the looting of the Eastern powers ran aground, Japan was escalated from the main target of the substitute to the official main prey.
The euro has cut interest rates, but the dollar has not yet cut interest rates, and it is likely that they are not waiting for the big eastern countries to make a mistake, but they are planning to cut Japan first. After cutting Japan, maybe we can hold on for a while longer, and buy more time to find new opportunities to set up a situation for Todai.
When to launch a general attack on the yen, funds from all walks of life will have to wait for a signal from the United States to break through the 160-1 barrier again.
When capital shorts the currency of a larger economy, the most fearful thing is that the target country will use sufficient foreign exchange reserves to counterattack. In 1998, Soros led a group of morale-boosting capital to short Hong Kong with the residual power of shorting the currencies of Southeast Asian countries, but met with stubborn resistance and left with losses. At that time, Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves were more than $100 billion, and the mainland had $140 billion. Japan now has $1.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves on its books, and theoretically Japan can have the strength to fight and blow up the shorts.
But Japan, as a semi-colony of the United States, did not resist the freedom of the United States to harvest at all. Japan's move of selling US bonds to save the yen has been severely warned by the United States many times. The U.S. Treasury Department also added Japan to its "watch list" for currency manipulation.
U.S. bonds are Japan's largest foreign exchange reserve asset, accounting for more than 90% of Japan's total foreign exchange reserves. Such support for U.S. bonds is commendable for Japan's filial piety to the United States.
In April, the yen fell into a dog, and in order to save the yen, Japan had the audacity to sell a little U.S. bonds and intervened in the yen exchange rate. But in the eyes of the United States, Japan is the opposite. Because Japan did this, firstly, it affected the liquidity of US bonds, and secondly, it was Wall Street's capital that took the lead in shorting the yen, and Japan dared to disrupt Wall Street's plan to harvest Japan.
Either of these two is considered a great rebellion in the eyes of the United States.
Thus, stern warnings came one after another.
There is a sharp contradiction between the current United States and the current Japan in terms of economic interests.
Japan has huge foreign exchange reserves, but they are basically used to buy US bonds, and there are not many foreign exchange reserves that can be used, so if it wants to intervene in the foreign exchange market again, it can only sell US bonds again. This would pose a threat to the already fragile liquidity of US Treasuries. Between the U.S. debt and the yen, there must be a sacrifice. When encountering this situation, naturally you don't have to think about it, it is natural to sacrifice your son's yen to save your father's U.S. debt, and moreover, U.S. debt is also related to the dollar.
The United States publicly warned Japan not to allow interference in the yen exchange rate, which is tantamount to telling all kinds of funds to short Japan that they have tied Japan's hands and are not allowed to resist, and they can rest assured that they can short Japan.
This is the signal that the yen bears are waiting. Now there are no worries, and the time has come to break through the 160 mark again. The U.S. Treasury Department announced on the 20th that Japan would be included in the "exchange manipulation monitoring list", and the closing price of 159.81 on the 21st was approaching the 160 mark. After the weekend, it easily broke through 160 on the 24th.
Sure enough, this time the Japanese monetary authorities did not resist and were as quiet as chickens.
The Japanese economy is once again making up for the deficit of the United States. The last time I did my filial piety, I caused the financial crisis in 1990, and the price was to lose 30 years. This time, the price for Japan is not just thirty years.
The U.S. can't care about Japan's life or death now, and, as mentioned earlier, Japan is too good to be short right now. The reality of Japan's economy and finance, so that Wall Street capital can't help but short Japan, it is too embarrassing.
Now, if you are short Japan, you can start from the stock market, the yen, and Japanese bonds, and Japan will not dare to resist at all anyway.
Isn't it nonsense that Japan's GDP has regressed from second to fourth, and the recession in Japan's manufacturing sector has been even more severe, and the Nikkei is even higher than its peak in 1989? There must be an "invisible hand" behind this phenomenon that violates the basic logic of economics, which is planning and setting up sets. Apart from the financial capital of Wall Street, no other force has been able to pull a stock market of Japan's size to such a high level.
This kind of super-boom in the stock market, detached from economic fundamentals, will only bring about a temporary refreshment, and the consequences will be worse than the financial crisis caused by the bursting of the stock market bubble in the 1990s.
Since Warren Buffett's high-profile announcement of his investment in Japan, this bureau has already begun. Warren Buffett used US dollar assets as a guarantee, borrowed yen at a very low cost in Japan, invested in the Japanese stock market, took the lead in pulling up the Nikkei index, and created a boom in the Japanese stock market.
Naturally, it is not only Warren Buffett who participates in the operation, but Buffett's investment trends can represent a signal for Wall Street financial capital. Warren Buffett's status as the "god of stocks" is the same as that of the gods of Capitol Hill, and he needs to have reliable information close to the inner circle of Wall Street in order to maintain a relatively high investment accuracy rate. Therefore, some people are willing to pay to compete for the opportunity to have lunch with Buffett, but they can't learn the real secret of Buffett's success, and some people just want to get advertising effect.
The Japanese, who are still sober-minded and have a somewhat patriotic stance, should be very painful, and they should be able to especially appreciate what Kissinger said; "It is dangerous to be an enemy of the United States, but it is fatal to be a friend of the United States."
This also reminds the Chinese not to listen to the words of those spiritual Americans, thinking that they can get the desired results by abandoning principles, seeking perfection, and being friends with Americans.
The pyramid of the Western system is very hierarchical, and the United States will go to war for Israel, and Japan will sacrifice itself for the United States. Japan's helplessness in the face of the United States is the same as the helplessness of the United States in the face of Israel. Joining this system is ultimately the tool and prey of capital at the top of the pyramid.
The only way is to "where there is oppression, there is resistance", in order to save oneself, compromise and concession are useless. But Japan is obviously not ready for this now, and it will be caught to death by the Americans.
For example, on the last few occasions, some Japanese have shouted to China that "China and Japan will no longer be at war," which is a signal to China to ease relations and ask for help. However, such people are still marginalized in Japan. Those who actively or passively cooperated with the United States in the ransacking of Japan are the mainstream.
The yen is facing such a big crisis, and it is impossible without the cooperation of insiders. Kazuo Ueda, the current governor of the Bank of Japan, is very problematic. A blogger named Shi Kelang combed through this person's resume and found that this person was from the small circle of Wall Street. His Ph.D. advisor was former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher; Mankiw, author of the best-selling book "Principles of Economics", former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers are all brothers; Federal Reserve Governor Brainard and Bank of England Governor Mervyn Kinge are former colleagues.
This work resume can explain why he was able to break the Japanese government's employment rules and squeeze out Vice President Masayoshi Amamiya, who was originally the most favored to take over the position of president. Just as the EU wants to continue to use von der Leyen as president of the European Commission, many people in Europe know that von der Leyen's family is in the United States, she is the white glove of the United States, and she herself was investigated by the EU for colluding with American pharmaceutical companies to buy vaccines at high prices, but it did not delay her to continue to stay in that position.
The appointment of him as governor of the Bank of Japan in April 2023 is naturally useful. Now that the disaster is approaching, the conflict between Kazuo Ueda and the Ministry of Finance, which is trying to save the yen, is becoming public.
There are also many rapes. The 1990 financial crisis in Japan did not go so smoothly if there was no one to cooperate with the outside world. Until then, the United States used the bait of the internationalization of the yen to induce Japan to dismantle the financial firewall.
The Jewish consortium that hides behind the scenes, playing infiltration, bribery, and burying hidden piles, has reached its peak in technology.
Today is the fourth trading day after the yen broke through the 160-to-1 mark again, and the yen-dollar exchange rate fell below the 161-to-1 mark intraday. Japan's monetary authorities still have not taken action.
Knowing that the United States wants to harvest itself, it does not dare to resist, and there is no way, how sad it is.
Therefore, we should never let all kinds of people control our economic lifeline.
Compared with the current yen, Japan's stock market is even more dangerous. And Japan's national debt, which is even more fragile.
If there is another triple kill of individual stocks and foreign exchange bonds, Japan will have no power to resist.
The United States has begun to harvest Japan in the most humiliating way possible for Japan, and Japan's road ahead will become narrower and narrower.
If Japan's financial sector is shorted by the U.S., Japan's manufacturing industry will face industrial competition from Todai. Japan's ability to increase its wealth depends mainly on manufacturing, and if it is crushed by Todai's industrial competition, Japan will really be ready to become a developing country from a developed country.
(The author is a researcher at Kunlunce Research Institute; Source: Kunlun Ce Network [Author's Authorization], recompiled from "Mingren Mingcha" today's headline number, revised and released; The picture comes from the Internet, invaded and deleted)