Weekly Report on Fishmeal Market (13-20 June)

Weekly Fishmeal Market Report (14.6.2024-20.6.2024 | Week 25), details are as follows:

Overview of fishmeal market prices

This week (6.13-6.20), the overall market of domestic fishmeal market was partially weak and volatile, the overall market cargo situation was better than that in the previous period, and the port inventory continued to decline slightly. Stockholders are shipping positively, but the downstream demand is picking up slowly, and the fishmeal purchased by feed companies is mainly based on rigid demand, and the overall market has little room for loosening.

Market price of Guangzhou port:

Peruvian super fishmeal: 16000-16100 yuan/ton

Japanese grade fishmeal: 14000-14200 yuan/ton

Thai grade fishmeal: 12800-13000 yuan/ton

Ordinary grade fishmeal (65/120 index): 12700-12800 yuan/ton

Ordinary grade fishmeal (65/150 index): 12200-12300 yuan/ton

India 65 protein fishmeal: 12200-12300 yuan/ton

Thailand 65 protein fishmeal: 11700-11800 yuan/ton

Vietnam 65 protein fishmeal: 11600-11800 yuan/ton

Domestic fishmeal:

At present, it is in the traditional off-season, the inventory is limited, and some manufacturers have stopped quoting, while the manufacturers with goods maintain the sentiment of high prices, but the transaction volume is small, and the quotation is weak.

The price of 65% protein fishmeal in Shandong is 11,800-12,000 yuan/ton, and the price of 67% protein fishmeal is 12,800-13,000 yuan/ton.

Peruvian market situation:

Fishing in north-central Peru has come to an end, the mainstream reference price of Peru's new season pre-sale super outer disk is 1850 US dollars / ton, and the pre-sale volume has reached about 80%, Peruvian large factories basically have no sales pressure, the outer plate price is firm, and there are individual super orders of 1900 US dollars / ton.

In terms of port inventory, as of the 19th, the port inventory was 217,600 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons or 6.57% month-on-month.

Analysis of fishmeal price trends

Domestic spot prices of fishmeal in Peru:

A detailed comparison of Peruvian super, Japanese and ordinary fishmeal prices in Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Dalian and other ports found that the overall price fluctuation was small, showing slight fluctuations in the market.

Analysis of Peru's external disk and import costs:

The CNF reference price for pre-sale Peruvian superfish meal was US$1,850/ton, and the reference price for import cost was 13,818 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.3 yuan/mt compared with last week.

Domestic fishmeal prices:

Tianjin: Peruvian super fishmeal 16,100 yuan/ton, Japanese grade fishmeal 14,200 yuan/ton, ordinary grade fishmeal 12,400 yuan/ton.

Dalian: Peruvian super fishmeal 16,100 yuan/ton, Japanese grade fishmeal 14,200 yuan/ton, ordinary grade fishmeal 12,300 yuan/ton.

Guangzhou: Peruvian super fishmeal 16,000 yuan/ton, Japanese fishmeal 14,000 yuan/ton, ordinary fishmeal 12,200 yuan/ton.

Shanghai: Peruvian super fishmeal 16,100 yuan/ton, Japanese grade fishmeal 14,200 yuan/ton, ordinary grade fishmeal 12,300 yuan/ton.

Domestic chicken meal prices:

The price of imported chicken meal was generally stable, with slight fluctuations. The price of imported chicken meal in Guangzhou, Shanghai and Tianjin is 8200-8300 yuan/ton; The price of domestic chicken meal in Shandong is 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

Domestic meat and bone meal prices:

The price of meat and bone meal in various places is relatively stable, and the price of meat and bone meal ≥ 45% protein in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Fujian and Tianjin is between 4600-4800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of fishmeal availability

Fishmeal stocks in domestic ports:

As of June 19, the fishmeal inventory in major domestic ports was 217,600 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons, or 6.57%, from the previous week. The specific data is as follows:

Guangdong: 131,400 tons, down 10,500 tons from the previous month

Shanghai: 45,800 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons from the previous month

Dalian: 7,700 tons, a decrease of 00,300 tons from the previous month

Tianjin: 1,100 tons, a decrease of 0,200 tons from the previous month

Fujian: 26,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous month

Fish Caught in Peru:

As of June 18, 2024, the number of fish caught in the first season in north-central Peru was 2,430,500 tons, with 98.20% of the quota fulfilled and about 44,500 tons remaining.

Juveniles accounted for 31.3 percent of the total catches by volume; Juveniles account for 21.5 percent of the total catch by weight.

Market analysis of related products

Soybean Meal Market Analysis:

The price of soybean meal in the domestic coastal areas has been steadily lowered, and the prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places have fluctuated slightly.

Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase, which may have an impact on the market, and the domestic soybean meal futures price M2409 is running weakly, and the spot and basis are still under pressure.

Hog Market Analysis:

The average price of live pigs slaughtered in the country was 18.49 yuan/kg, down 0.34 yuan/kg from last week. Market sentiment is not enough to support and demand is weak.

The supply side has increased slightly, the impact of the epidemic still needs attention, and the short-term pig price is expected to be weak and volatile and consolidated.

Fishmeal market outlook

On the supply side, new Peruvian fishmeal arrivals began in mid-to-late June on a small scale, with a peak in July and September. The market is under pressure, and the holders are actively selling used goods at the right price. Domestic supply is limited due to the fact that domestic fishmeal is in the traditional off-season, with tight stocks and reduced catches of miscellaneous fishmeal in Southeast Asia.

On the demand side, the demand for fishmeal has not been satisfactory, and the recent frequent rains in southern China have affected fish feeding and activities. In order to improve the quality of feed, feed companies do not build a large number of warehouses, and they just need to buy as they go.

Summary: It is expected that the fishmeal market will be stable as a whole next week, and some of them will be weak and volatile. Continue to pay attention to the fishmeal demand gap, the number of season A catches in north-central Peru, and the dynamics of the outboard.

Data source: General Administration of Customs/National Bureau of Statistics/Ganglian data