Weekly Price Report | Eggs (6.21-6.27)

Weekly Egg Market Report (2024.6.21-2024.6.27 |.) Week 26), details are as follows:

Main content:

Egg prices are rising

Current price: As of this Thursday, the market price of eggs was 3.73 yuan/catty, an increase of 0.22 yuan/catty, or 6.27%, from 3.51 yuan/jin last week.

Reason: cold storage hoarding, traders and food factories to buy the bottom of the stock, circulation link inventory has declined, but it is still in the seasonal off-season, the demand is reduced, especially the major primary and secondary schools have been on holiday to weaken the centralized demand.

Availability

The number of new laying hens continues to increase: the number of old chickens eliminated has declined, and the number of laying hens in the country continues to increase, and the pressure on egg supply is greater.

Reduction in the number of culled chickens slaughtered: the overall number of laying hens in the country is still increasing, and the overall supply level is high.

Egg exports

May 2024 export volume: 11,784.064 tons, total export value of 16,268,613 US dollars, export price of 1380.56 US dollars/ton, up 4.55% year-on-year.

Demand situation

High temperature and high humidity weather: the circulation of eggs in the production, marketing and circulation links has slowed down, the inventory pressure has increased, and the downstream is mainly based on on-demand procurement.

School holidays: Schools are closed in various places, the demand for centralized procurement is reduced, and the overall consumption is weak.

Stockpiling: After the egg price fell to near the comprehensive cost line, the market risk control sentiment was released, and traders in some areas stockpiled at the bottom, and the demand for small and medium-sized eggs recovered.

cost analysis

Feed prices: Feed prices such as corn and soybean meal are running at high levels. The price of corn is 2357 yuan/ton, the price of soybean meal is 3260 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost is about 2809 yuan/ton, which is converted to a single catty of egg feed cost price of about 2.94 yuan/kg.

Profit analysis

Egg feed price: the national egg feed price is 2.59, according to the current price and cost calculation, the profit of laying hens is 10.66 yuan / piece.

Expected profits: demand decreases, downstream to sales of surplus goods, purchase intentions are reduced, and the expected profits of laying hens may continue to decline.

Forecast for the future

Supply side: The high temperature and high humidity weather continued to affect the egg production rate and eased the supply pressure, but the total production and supply of commercial poultry eggs continued to increase slightly, and the overall supply pressure was still there.

Demand side: school holidays lead to the weakening of the demand for centralized procurement, food processing plants, catering industry replenishment cautious, traders may have a small amount of low-level bottom purchases, summer tourism demand or a slight increase, but the overall demand is still weak, is expected to be weak in the later egg prices, the price is between 3.5-3.7 yuan / catty.

Soybean meal market situation

Market Overview: The market price of soybean meal fell, and the average market price on Thursday was 3245 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the same period last week, or 0.46%.

International market: CBOT soybean meal price was $338.4/short ton, down 7.19% from the same period last week and 10.14% from the same period last month.

Supply and demand: Domestic soybean crushing increased, imported soybeans are expected to arrive in June, soybean meal supply is loose, demand is flat, and inventories are slightly reduced.

Costs and profits: The cost of imported soybeans decreased slightly from the same period last week, and oil mills faced losses in soybean crushing.

Core data

Egg prices

This weekend's price: 3.73 yuan/catty

This week's average price: 3.66 yuan / catty

Last weekend price: 3.51 yuan / catty

Last week's average price: 3.66 yuan / catty

Weekly change:6.27%

Monthly change:-9.88%

Quarterly change: 5.35%

Egg availability

Week 26 (6/21-6/27) Production: 680,000 tons

Year-on-year growth: 1.28%

Operating Rate: 86.88%

Change in operating rate: +2.03%

Week 25 (6/14-6/20) Production: 673,595 tonnes

Year-on-year growth: 0.2%

Operating Rate: 87.21%

Change in operating rate: +1.23%

Egg exports

Total exports in May 2024: 11,784.064 tons

Total exports: $16,268,613

Export price: 1380.56 US dollars/ton

Year-on-year increase in exports: 4.55%

Total exports in April 2024: 11,112.388 tons

Total exports: $15,237,076

Export price: 1371.18 US dollars / ton

Year-on-year increase in exports: 3.86%

Egg futures situation

The highest closing price: 3990 yuan / 500 kg

Lowest closing price: 3865 yuan / 500 kg

This week's soybean meal market situation

The average market price of soybean meal: 3245 yuan/ton

The average price of the same period last week: 3260 yuan/ton

Decline:0.46%

CBOT soybean meal close: $338.4/mt

Year-on-week decrease: 7.19%

Month-on-month decrease: 10.14%

Change from the beginning of the year: 10.83%

Domestic soybean crushing: 2.197 million tons

Increase from last week: 170,000 tons

This is an increase over the same period last year: 340,000 tons

Compared with the average of the same period in the last three years: 320,000 tons

Imported soybean arrivals:

July: 11.5 million tons

August: 8.8 million tons

September: 8.5 million tons

Soybean meal inventory of major oil mills in the country: 949,700 tons

Decrease from last week: 10,600 tons

Unexecuted contracts: 434 tons

Increase from last week: 246,000 tons

Egg price trend forecast for next week

Price range: 3.5-3.7 yuan / catty

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics/China Customs/BAIINFO/Baichuan Yingfu Big Data

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