Weekly Hog Market Report (2024.6.21-2024.6.27 | Week 26), details are as follows:
Main content:
Hog price movements
Price change: The national average price of live pigs at the end of this week was 17.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.43% from the end of last month, an increase of 13.40% from the previous quarter, and an increase of 22.34% from the beginning of the year. At the end of this week, hog prices fell across the country, with varying declines from place to place.
Piglet price: The average price of piglets this week was 43.00 yuan/kg, and the mainstream transaction price was 38-50 yuan/kg. It is expected that piglet prices will fluctuate weakly next week.
Binary sow price: The average price of binary sows this week was 1744 yuan/head, which was stable compared with last week, and the mainstream transaction price was 1500-1800 yuan/head.
Hog futures price analysis
Futures data: As of this Thursday, the main hog futures contract LH2409 opened at 17,300 yuan/ton and closed at 17,615 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; The trading volume was 189,000 lots, an increase of 17,000 contracts from last week, and the open interest was 79,000 lots, a decrease of 4,000 contracts from last week.
Spot price difference: This week, the spot price difference between domestic live pigs is 110 to 540 yuan/ton, and the spot end has declined significantly.
Hog supply
Breeding sow inventory: As of the end of May 2024, the national breeding sow inventory is 39.96 million, which is 102.5% of the normal holdings.
Hog inventory: In the first quarter of 2024, the mainland hog herd was 408.5 million heads, down 5.92% from the fourth quarter of 2023.
Pig slaughter: In the first quarter of 2024, the number of live pigs slaughtered nationwide was 194.55 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%.
Hog demand
Slaughter analysis: The slaughter operating rate was 22.02% this week, and the demand improved slightly, but the overall situation was still weak.
Sales volume analysis: In May 2024, the total number of live pigs sold by 18 listed pig companies was 12.9419 million heads, an increase of 4.48% month-on-month.
Cost-profit analysis
Feed raw material price: corn spot price 2375 yuan/ton, soybean meal spot price 3245 yuan/ton.
Breeding profit: self-breeding profit of 382 yuan/head, purchased piglets profit of 366 yuan/head.
Pig food ratio
Pig grain ratio: this week, the average price of domestic pigs slaughtered decreased by 3.75% month-on-month; The average price of corn increased by 0.55% from last week; The pig feed ratio was 7.14.
Hog-related products
Pork Prices:
Price changes: This week, the national pork price rose to 22.48 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04%.
Supply: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the procurement of slaughtering enterprises is smooth.
Demand: Consumption support is poor, and substitution consumption is increasing.
Cost: The average price of live pigs is 17.69 yuan/kg, the price of feed has been slightly corrected, and the profit of breeding has declined.
White feather broiler price:
Chicken prices: This week, the price of white feather chickens rose to 3.77 yuan / catty, an increase of 2.17%.
Chicken seedling price: The price of chicken seedlings was 1.95 yuan / bird, a decrease of 4.41%.
Supply: The local social chicken source is still tight.
Demand: The inventory pressure of slaughtering enterprises has increased, and the overall demand is weak.
Hog price trend forecast for next week
Supply side: the slaughter speed may be accelerated, and the supply of pigs will increase significantly.
On the demand side, consumption support is insufficient, and the phenomenon of pork substitution consumption is increasing.
Price forecast: It is expected that the price of live pigs will remain fluctuating between 17.0-18.0 yuan/kg next week, down from this week's price.
Core data
Hog prices
The national average price of live pigs: 17.69 yuan/kg, down 0.69 yuan/kg from the average price of the same period last week, a decrease of 3.75%.
At the end of the week, hog prices were up 4.43% from the end of last month, 13.40% from the previous quarter, and 22.34% from the beginning of the year.
Availability
Breeding sows: As of the end of May 2024, there are 39.96 million breeding sows in the country, which is 102.5% of the normal population.
Pig inventory: In the first quarter of 2024, the mainland pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, down 5.92% quarter-on-quarter and 5.2% year-on-year from the fourth quarter of 2023.
Pig slaughter: In the first quarter of 2024, the number of live pigs slaughtered nationwide was 194.55 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%.
Demand situation
Slaughter operating rate: The slaughtering operating rate this week was 22.02%, up 0.32% month-on-month.
Slaughtering profit: Slaughtering profit was -40.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 18.27 yuan/head from last week.
Pig sales: In May 2024, the total number of live pigs sold by 18 listed pig companies was 12.9419 million heads, an increase of 4.48% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.42%.
Piglet prices
The average price of piglets: 43.00 yuan/kg, down from last week, and the mainstream transaction price was 38-50 yuan/kg.
Binary sow prices
The average price of binary sows: 1744 yuan/head, the price is stable, and the mainstream transaction price is 1500-1800 yuan/head.
Costs and profits
Corn spot price: 2375 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from last week.
Soybean meal spot price: 3245 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from last week.
Self-breeding and self-raising profits: 382 yuan/head, a decrease of 31 yuan/head from last week.
Profit of purchased piglets: 366 yuan/head, a decrease of 30 yuan/head from last week.
Pig food ratio
Pig grain ratio: 7.14, down 3.75% from the previous week, and the average price of corn increased by 0.55% from last week.
Pork prices
The national average price of pork: 22.48 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.04% from the average price of the same period last week.
Hog futures prices
LH2409 contract: the opening price was 17,300 yuan/ton, the closing price was 17,615 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 189,000 lots, an increase of 17,000 lots from last week.
Spot price spread in hog periods
Spot price difference: The current price difference in this cycle is between 110 and 540 yuan/ton.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics/BAIINFO/Baichuan Yingfu Big Data
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