Comments
The inertia of the PMI pullback has weakened. This month's PMI reading was unchanged from the previous month, still operating below the critical value, but the inertia of the pullback has weakened significantly compared with the previous two months. In terms of sub-indicators, production and demand fell moderately, and the new orders index and production index fell by 0.1 and 0.2 points respectively, still maintaining a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; New export orders were flat last month. In terms of prices, the raw material prices and factory price index fell again after a brief rebound last month, of which the raw material price index fell sharply by 5.2 points, still above the critical value, while the factory price index fell 2.5 points to below the critical value. In addition, the finished goods inventory index rebounded for the first time since the second quarter.
Regarding this month's PMI, we highlight the following points:
1. The off-season characteristics are significant
Economic activity has entered the off-season, and industry differentiation has intensified. The manufacturing PMI readings in June of each year fluctuated little, and there was no obvious directionality. This month's PMI was flat month-on-month, and the production and demand index fell moderately, driving the purchase volume to continue to decline. At the same time, under the continuous accumulation of strong supply and weak demand, there are signs of slowing down in the destocking of terminals, and the finished goods inventory index rose by 1.8 points this month, the first rebound since the second quarter. In terms of industries, the prosperity of the high-tech manufacturing industry represented by computers continued to be high, remaining in the expansion range for 8 consecutive months, and the performance of the equipment manufacturing industry was acceptable, maintaining expansion for 4 consecutive months; The energy-intensive industries and consumer goods industries are relatively sluggish, remaining below the critical value for two consecutive months.
2. Super-seasonal fluctuations in prices
The price fluctuates widely. Although the fluctuation of the PMI general index is no different from seasonality, among the sub-items, price-related indicators have shown obvious super-seasonal fluctuations in the past two months. Correspondingly, the performance of the price index in May in previous years was mainly down, and in May this year, the price index rose against the trend in the case of demand did not improve significantly, and quickly turned back in June, and the decline far exceeded the seasonality. Taking the ferrous metal and non-metallic mineral products industry as an example, the ferrous metal represented by rebar rose by 2.8% month-on-month in May and fell by 3.0% in June; The price trend of non-metallic mineral products such as glass is similar, and after a brief positive month-on-month increase in May, the price returned to the downward channel in June.
The frequent fluctuations in commodity prices convey the following information: first, the prices of some raw materials are close to the low cost, and enterprises are under greater pressure to raise prices under cost constraints; Second, in the low period, the price of the terminal demand change sensitivity increased, the new deal in the property market in May led to the improvement of building materials consumption expectations, thereby promoting the rise in building materials prices, but in the off-season in June, the price finally failed to fulfill the previous optimistic expectations.
3. The new policy for the property market has achieved initial results
The new policy for the property market has achieved initial results. June is a relatively important period for the real estate industry. The property market is not only facing a half-year performance test, but also gradually verifying the policy effect since the 5.17 New Deal. Judging from the transaction situation in June, the property market transaction showed a relatively obvious marginal improvement, and the improvement was further amplified compared with May. In June, the transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 21.9% month-on-month, an increase of about 20 percentage points compared with May. Among them, the transaction area of cities of all energy levels improved month-on-month, and from the perspective of improvement, the first-tier > the third-tier > the second-tier.
The improvement in new home transactions is stronger than that of second-hand homes. In order to observe the changes in the property market more clearly, we selected 9 large and medium-sized cities that publish both new and second-hand housing transaction data for comparison. In terms of the current transaction situation, the improvement of new housing transactions in most cities is stronger than that of second-hand houses, except for Xiamen and Dalian. Among the first-tier cities, Shenzhen and Guangzhou have improved far more than Shanghai and Beijing. Compared with the second-hand housing market, the transaction of the new housing market can contribute more direct economic increment, so the heat of the property market is mainly contributed by the new housing market, which is also a relatively optimistic scenario.
This month's PMI continued its upward trend year-on-year to -4.3%, and the situation of stabilizing the bottom of the economy is relatively clear, while the interest rate on 10Y Treasury bonds seems to ignore this characteristic and decline month by month. That is, the current market seems to be desensitized to the short-term fluctuations of the economy, and has turned to price in the direction of movement of the longer cycle. From this perspective, the changes in economic heat that we closely track seem to be less likely to change the direction of interest rate movements, and more as a reference for the downward slope of interest rates.
Risk warning: statistical caliber error
Analysts of this report
尹睿哲 SAC执业证书编号：S1450523120003
赵心茹 SAC执业证书编号：S1450524040006
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