On July 1, the curtain of this year's summer travel is about to open, due to the long duration (two months from July to August), long-term travel is the main force of the summer, so it is also the traditional season for airlines to make money except for the Spring Festival.
In fact, with the completion of the final exams in primary and secondary schools this week, some anxious parents have already taken their children to travel and play, and the first wave of summer travel peaks this weekend (6.29-6.30) has arrived in advance. Qunar expects that July 6 and 13 will also usher in the peak of summer passenger flow.
According to the estimation of Flight Steward, the estimated passenger traffic of civil aviation during the summer travel period (July-August) in 2024 will reach 135 million, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year in 2023 and 12.2% year-on-year in 2019; It is estimated that the total number of passenger flights will be 994,000, with an average of 16,000 flights per day, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year in 2023 and 6.1% year-on-year in 2019.
Although the number of passengers and flights have increased compared with 2019 before the epidemic, the reporter learned from a number of airlines and platforms that both domestic air tickets and international fares are cheaper than last summer.
These cities in the country are on fire in the summer
In the past week, a number of airlines and airports have deployed capacity for the upcoming summer season. For example, Air China has increased its capacity investment in hot cities such as Xinjiang, Chengdu-Chongqing, Shandong, and Hainan, as well as summer resorts such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Fujian, and Hailar, with an average of 1,444 domestic flights per day in the summer, an increase of 39.2% year-on-year in 2019.
Hainan Airlines expects 816 domestic flights per day during the summer travel period, an increase of 9% year-on-year in 2023, of which the new routes are mainly concentrated in popular summer tourist cities such as Urumqi, Lanzhou, Guilin, Kashgar, Kuqa, Altay and Hulunbuir. It is estimated that there will be more than 8 million domestic transport passengers, an increase of about 5% year-on-year.
The relevant person in charge of the marketing department of Fuzhou Airlines told reporters that this year's summer vacation, visiting relatives and friends, group travel and other strong demand, including Fuzhou to Zhangjiajie, Fuzhou to Dunhuang and other tourist routes sales are hot, while Fuzhou to Kunming, Fuzhou to Taiyuan and other summer routes are also favored.
Daxing Airport expects that as the flow of passengers during the summer travel period is mainly students, tourists, and family visits, popular destinations will be concentrated in summer resort areas and popular tourist cities such as Guangdong, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu. For example, China Southern Airlines plans to add more than 1,000 flights from Beijing Daxing to Kashgar, Korla, Altay, Xining, Yinchuan, Baishan, Daqing, Guilin, Jieyang and other places. China Eastern Airlines plans to add new routes from Beijing Daxing to Urumqi, Korla, Jiamusi, Changchun, Dunhuang and Xiamen, and encrypt flights from Beijing Daxing to Xining, Yinchuan and Lanzhou.
According to the statistics of Flight Steward, among the 40 domestic airlines during the summer travel period, 36 airlines will increase their capacity year-on-year in the summer of 2023, and only United Airlines (-0.9%), Suparna Airlines (-9.4%), Guilin Airlines (-26.2%), and Happiness Airlines (-9.1%) will see a decline in flights.
Judging from the focus of many airlines' capacity investment, the northwest and northeast regions are the key markets for this year's summer transportation. Qunar big data also shows that the northwest region of the summer aviation market has started faster, in addition to Yili, Altay and other places in Xinjiang, Lanzhou and Xining are also rising; Harbin and Changchun in Northeast China, Datong in Shanxi, and Jiayuguan in Gansu have increased rapidly. In particular, the number of air ticket bookings to more than 40 small airports in the northwest increased by more than 60% year-on-year.
Spring and Autumn Tourism also revealed to reporters that the first flight of the "Shanghai-Turpan" charter flight to be ushered in on July 5 was basically sold out in advance. In addition, the sales progress of Turpan charter flights this year has also shown signs of "speeding up", which is about 4-5 days earlier than the same period last year.
Policy dividends have boosted the doubling of inbound and outbound passengers
Compared with last year, the outbound market of this year's summer transportation is also more prosperous. Ctrip's summer travel report mentioned that inbound and outbound tourism during the summer travel period grew rapidly due to the impact of policy dividends, with travel orders to some countries such as Europe and Latin America increasing by more than 8%, and the overall inbound travel orders increasing by 1 times year-on-year. Inbound travel orders from 14 countries, including France, Italy, Germany, Malaysia and Thailand, which can enter China without visas, increased by 1.5 times year-on-year. Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an, Shenzhen, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Chongqing and Kunming are popular cities for inbound tourism. Northeast cities such as Shenyang, Dalian and Harbin, which have "natural air conditioning", also performed eye-catchingly, ranking among the top 15 popular cities for inbound tourism.
Zhou Weihong, deputy general manager of Spring and Autumn Tourism, also introduced that the growth rate of outbound travel bookings this summer has accelerated significantly, exceeding 150% in the same period last year. In terms of the number of visas submitted, the top short-haul destinations near China such as Japan and South Korea, as well as long-haul destinations such as the United Kingdom and Schengen visas. In terms of inbound tourism, the number of inbound tourists received in the Spring and Autumn Festival is also increasing, both in terms of the number of tourists and the number of source countries. "From last year, most of the inbound tourists from China's neighboring countries have been extended to Germany, Greece, Sweden, the United States and other countries."
The growth in inbound and outbound tourism is also related to the continued resumption of international flights. For example, Air China has increased its investment in international flight capacity during the summer season, opening new routes such as Beijing-Dhaka and Chengdu-Milan, resuming flights between Shanghai and Barcelona, and encrypting flights on 13 international routes, including Beijing-Copenhagen and Chengdu-Singapore. By then, Air China's international and regional routes will recover to more than 90% of 2019 levels.
Hainan Airlines plans to increase its international and regional flights by 48% year-on-year in 2023 during the summer season, and plans to open the Beijing=Tijuana=Mexico City route in July, and the company expects to carry more than 500,000 passengers internationally, an increase of more than 50% compared to the same period in 2023.
Daxing Airport expects that passengers from Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Doha, Osaka, Bangkok and other destinations will increase significantly during the summer travel period. China Southern Airlines plans to open a new route from Beijing Daxing to Dhaka, Bangladesh; China Eastern Airlines plans to launch a new route from Beijing Daxing to Bangkok. As of June 26, the number of inbound and outbound passengers at Daxing Airport this year has exceeded 2 million, and it has reached the annual inbound and outbound passenger volume in 2023 in only six months.
According to the statistics of Flight Steward, Southeast Asia and East Asia are still the focus of airlines' international capacity investment, accounting for 76.2% of flights, but there is still a certain gap in flight volume compared with 2019; Flights from niche regions such as West Asia, Central Asia and Africa exceeded the level of 2019; The North American market is still operating at a low level, and the number of scheduled flights is only about 20% of the same period in 2019.
Domestic and international airfares are cheaper
It is precisely because of the continuous recovery and new opening of international flights that international fares have also continued to decline. Qunar big data shows that so far, the average price paid for international air tickets in the summer has decreased by 22% compared with the same period last year, and the average price of international hotels per night has decreased by 24%. From the perspective of comprehensive costs, the cost of outbound travel in some Southeast Asian countries is even lower than that of some domestic destinations.
For example, Bangkok, Thailand, which occupies the top 3 popular destinations for outbound travel for most of the time, has a round-trip air ticket price of only about 1,800 yuan including tax in Beijing, and some high-end hotels are cheaper to more than 100 yuan per night, and the local consumption level is also cheaper, and the overall cost will not be more expensive than some cities in China.
In this regard, according to the analysis of Qunar Big Data Research Institute, compared with last year, the capacity of international routes this summer has increased significantly, and the international hotel supply chain has basically recovered to the level of 2019, so the prices of international air tickets and hotels have decreased significantly year-on-year. For ordinary people, the threshold for outbound travel will be lower and lower in the future, and the outbound travel market will sink more and more.
In addition to the continued decline in international fares, domestic airfares are also cheaper than in 2013. According to the booking data of Flight Steward, the average domestic economy class ticket price in the summer of 2024 will reach 1,010 yuan (excluding tax), a slight decrease of 3% compared with 2023.
On the Qunar platform, as of now, the average price paid for domestic air tickets this summer has been reduced by 6% compared with the same period last year, and some popular short-haul routes can temporarily pick up cheaper air tickets even in the summer. For example, next week, the average price of air tickets from Beijing to Chengdu, Chongqing, Kunming, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Guiyang, Harbin, Changsha, Tianjin, and Wuhan is only about 700 yuan.
When the travel common sense of "the earlier you book, the cheaper" is refreshed, it reflects the changes in the summer travel market this year. According to the analysis of Qunar Big Data Research Institute, with the normalization of the supply and demand side of the tourism industry, the domestic aviation market has ushered in fuller competition this year, consumers are more sensitive to the price of air tickets, and their tolerance for air ticket holiday increases has also decreased.
(CBN)