Domestic Macroeconomics Group
Zhang Jingjing S1090522050003 Chief
Rodin Report Contact
Report published: June 30, 2024
Text | China Merchants Macro Zhang Jingjing team
Key takeaways
Events: The manufacturing PMI was flat at 49.5 in June, while the services PMI fell back to 50.2, down 0.3 from the previous month. The construction PMI fell to 52.3, down 2.1 month-on-month. The composite PMI output index recorded 50.5, down 0.5 from the previous month.
Manufacturing: The pressure of domestic demand is gradually transmitted to the production side.
1) The manufacturing industry as a whole remained below the boom and bust line, flat month-on-month, and the average value in March increased by 2 percentage points year-on-year, which was weaker than seasonal. Except for finished product inventories, production and business activity expectations, imports, new export orders, and employees, other sub-items have declined. The pressure of domestic demand began to be transmitted to the production side, and the purchase volume of the manufacturing industry fell significantly this month, new orders fell, and the imbalance between supply and demand improved.
2) Manufacturing production has entered a period of seasonal adjustment, especially the traditional manufacturing industry has begun to enter the seasonal off-season, and the production attitude of enterprises tends to be conservative, with a slight decline from the previous month, of which the employment situation in the manufacturing industry has stabilized, but it is still below the line of prosperity and decline. In addition, the demand index in the PMI index in June did not improve, the new orders index fell slightly, and the new export orders index was the same as the previous month, all of which were below the boom and wither line, which to a certain extent reflected that the rebound in domestic and foreign demand was still under pressure.
3) In June, the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand was 62.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, the lack of demand led to a slowdown in the pace of enterprise production, the enterprise procurement index fell month-on-month, the finished product inventory index rose month-on-month, and the momentum of the manufacturing industry to actively replenish the warehouse was obviously insufficient.
4) The ex-factory price index has declined due to insufficient demand, and the decline in commodity prices has led to a decline in the raw material purchase price index, and the negative difference between the ex-factory price and the purchase price of raw materials has narrowed, and the cost pressure of manufacturing enterprises has decreased. The price decline in June mainly came from the ferrous industry, chemical industry, special equipment, electronic communications, metals and other industries, and the ferrous metal industry was affected by the rapid rise in prices in May, with a large month-on-month decline. High-frequency data shows that the high-frequency indicators of upstream and midstream industrial product prices continue to weaken, but the reduction of the tail-end drag effect is expected to promote the year-on-year decline in PPI in June to continue to narrow.
5) In terms of the improvement of the prosperity of various industries, the midstream equipment manufacturing industry> the midstream raw material processing industry> the downstream consumer industry, and the high-tech and high value-added industries represented by automobiles and computers continued to expand. Specifically, the PMI of electrical machinery, computer communication equipment manufacturing, and general equipment industries in the midstream equipment manufacturing industry is higher than the boom and wither line, while the PMI of automobile manufacturing, metal products, and special equipment is significantly lower than the boom and wither line, and the PMI of the special equipment industry has fallen significantly from the previous month. The industry PMI in the midstream raw material processing industry is lower than the boom and wither line, and only the PMI of the non-metallic mineral products industry has increased month-on-month. The industry PMI in the downstream consumer industry was significantly lower than the boom and wither line, and all of them declined from the previous month.
Non-manufacturing: Construction-related sectors were the biggest drag.
1) In June, the PMI of the service industry and the construction industry fell from the previous month, and the decline in the PMI of the construction industry became the biggest drag on the decline of the non-manufacturing PMI. First, due to the continuous heavy rainfall in the south, the business activity index of travel, catering consumption and postal express industry fell more than the previous month, and the second is that the overall issuance scale of government bonds is still small and the physical workload is less than expected, and the business activity index of the construction industry has declined to a large extent, and the third is that although the "517" new real estate policy continues to be favorable, the real estate sales data has not seen a significant improvement, and the new policy is still not smooth for the upstream transmission mechanism of real estate. The business activity index of the construction, installation, decoration and other construction industries related to the upstream and downstream of real estate was generally lower.
2) In terms of market demand and expectations in the service sector, the business activity expectations index rose significantly, while the new orders index fell slightly. Among them, the new orders index is still below the boom and bust line, and the business activity expectation index is still above the boom and bust line. In the long run, in the context of the accelerated development of new quality productivity and the implementation of loose real estate policies in various places, information technology services and real estate industry are expected to become an important support for the upward movement of the PMI of the service industry.
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1. Manufacturing: The pressure of domestic demand is gradually transmitted to the production side, and the manufacturing industry as a whole remains below the line of prosperity and withering, flat month-on-month, and the average value in March increased by 2 percentage points year-on-year, which is weaker than seasonal. Except for finished product inventories, production and business activity expectations, imports, new export orders, and employees, other sub-items have declined. The pressure of domestic demand began to be transmitted to the production side, and the purchase volume of the manufacturing industry fell significantly this month, new orders fell, and the imbalance between supply and demand improved.
From the perspective of the main sub-indicators that constitute the PMI, the inventory of finished products rebounded in June, up 1.8 percentage points month-on-month, production and business activities are expected, imports rose slightly, up 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points month-on-month respectively, and new export orders and employees were flat month-on-month. Purchase volume, production, new orders, orders in hand, supplier delivery time, purchase price of main raw materials, ex-factory price, and raw material inventory all declined, down by 1.2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 5.2, 2.5, and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. In terms of the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.1, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, still in the boom range; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, continuing the upward trend; and the PMI of small enterprises was 47.4, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and was below the line of prosperity and decline.
Manufacturing production has entered a period of seasonal adjustment, especially the traditional manufacturing industry has begun to enter the seasonal off-season, and the production attitude of enterprises tends to be conservative, falling slightly from the previous month, of which the employment situation in the manufacturing industry has stabilized, but it is still below the line of prosperity and decline. In addition, the demand index in the PMI index in June did not improve, the new orders index fell slightly, and the new export orders index was the same as the previous month, all of which were below the boom and wither line, which to a certain extent reflected that the rebound in domestic and foreign demand was still under pressure. The employment index remained unchanged from the previous month at 48.1, imports rose 0.1 percentage points to 46.9, and the new export orders index was 48.3, unchanged from the previous month. The new orders index was 49.5, down 0.1 percentage points, of which the production index of large enterprises was 52.1, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, the production index of medium-sized enterprises was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the production index of small enterprises was 46.3, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of the new orders index, medium-sized enterprises rebounded to the boom range in June, with large enterprises at 49.8, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, medium-sized enterprises at 51.2, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and small enterprises at 46.4, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. In June, the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand was 62.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, the lack of demand led to a slowdown in the pace of enterprise production, the enterprise procurement index fell month-on-month, the finished product inventory index rose month-on-month, and the manufacturing industry moved towards active replenishment. The raw material inventory index and finished product inventory index were 47.6 and 48.3 respectively in June, down 0.2 and up 1.8 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The purchasing volume index and production index were 48.1 and 50.6 respectively in June, down 1.2 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month. In terms of enterprise size, the raw material inventory index of large, medium and small enterprises was 48.4, 47.0 and 46.6, respectively, and the finished goods inventory index of large, medium and small enterprises was 48.1, 49.1 and 47.6, respectively. The lack of demand has led to a decline in the ex-factory price index, the decline in commodity prices has led to a decline in the purchase price index of raw materials, the negative difference between the ex-factory price and the purchase price of raw materials has narrowed, and the cost pressure of manufacturing enterprises has decreased. The price decline in June mainly came from the ferrous industry, chemical industry, special equipment, electronic communications, metals and other industries, and the ferrous metal industry was affected by the rapid rise in prices in May, with a large month-on-month decline. High-frequency data shows that the high-frequency indicators of upstream and midstream industrial product prices continue to weaken, but the reduction of the tail-end drag effect is expected to promote the year-on-year decline in PPI in June to continue to narrow. The purchase price index of raw materials in June was 51.7, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing ex-factory price index in June was 47.9, down 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the negative difference between ex-factory prices and raw material purchase prices narrowed by 2.7 percentage points. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the purchase price index of raw materials of large, medium and small enterprises in June was 51.0, 53.0 and 51.5, respectively, and the ex-factory price index was 46.4, 50.8 and 47.4 respectively. High-frequency data shows that the freight volume index in June is still weak, and the delivery time index of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry in June fell into the contraction range, and the delivery speed of enterprises declined. The supplier delivery time index was 49.50, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of the improvement of the prosperity of various industries, the midstream equipment manufacturing industry> the midstream raw material processing industry> the downstream consumer industry, and the high-tech and high-value-added industries represented by automobiles and computers continued to expand. Specifically, the PMI of electrical machinery, computer communication equipment manufacturing, and general equipment industries in the midstream equipment manufacturing industry is higher than the boom and wither line, while the PMI of automobile manufacturing, metal products, and special equipment is significantly lower than the boom and wither line, and the PMI of the special equipment industry has fallen significantly from the previous month. The industry PMI in the midstream raw material processing industry is lower than the boom and wither line, and only the PMI of the non-metallic mineral products industry has increased month-on-month. The industry PMI in the downstream consumer industry was significantly lower than the boom and wither line, and all of them declined from the previous month. The PMI of the midstream raw material processing industry in June was below the boom and wither line, and only the non-metallic mineral products industry rose month-on-month to 44.8, a month-on-month change of +2.5, mainly driven by the rebound in the inventory of major raw materials. Ferrous metal smelting, chemical fibers and rubber plastics, chemical raw materials and products, petroleum processing and coking, and non-ferrous metal smelting PMIs in June were 47.8, 49.6, 44.4, 47.5, and 48.1, respectively, with month-on-month changes of -2.0, -6.5, -8.0, -3.7, and -1.3. In the midstream equipment manufacturing industry, the PMI of electrical machinery, computer communication equipment manufacturing, and general equipment in June was 52.2, 55.4, and 53.2 respectively, with a month-on-month change of 0.0, +6.7, and -2.2. Automobile manufacturing, metal products, and special equipment PMI in June were 46.5, 46.2, and 45.0 respectively, with month-on-month changes of +0.8, -4.9, and -11.6. In the downstream industry, the PMI in June was below the boom and wither line and fell month-on-month. The PMIs of agricultural and sideline food processing, textiles and garments, and pharmaceutical manufacturing were 41.0, 46.7, and 46.4 respectively, with month-on-month changes of -1.5, -2.2, and -8.3. The obvious decline in new orders is the main reason for the decline in prosperity.
2. Non-manufacturing: Construction-related industries were the biggest drag on the non-manufacturing PMI in June, the service industry recorded 50.2%, and the construction industry recorded 52.3%, down 0.3% and 2.1% respectively from the previous month, and the decline in the growth rate of the construction PMI became the biggest drag on the decline in the non-manufacturing PMI. First, due to the continuous heavy rainfall in the south, the business activity index of travel, catering consumption and postal express industry fell more than the previous month, and the second is that the overall issuance scale of government bonds is still small and the physical workload is less than expected, and the business activity index of the construction industry has declined to a large extent, and the third is that despite the continuous blessing of the "517" new real estate policy, the real estate sales data has not seen significant improvement, and the upstream transmission mechanism of the new policy on real estate is still not smooth. The business activity index of the construction, installation, decoration and other construction industries related to the upstream and downstream of real estate was generally lower. From the perspective of industries, the prosperity of the service industry fell slightly on the basis of the previous month, of which, affected by the continuous heavy rainfall in the south, the business activity index of water transportation, postal industry, accommodation industry, catering industry and other related industries related to residents' travel and consumption fell sharply compared with the previous month. Under the influence of the slow issuance of government special bonds and the scale of the same period in previous years, and the continuous heavy rainfall in many places in the south in June, the construction industry was forced to stop, and the expansion of business activities in the construction industry slowed down, especially the civil engineering construction industry related to infrastructure, which saw a larger month-on-month decline and a deeper year-on-year drag. Stimulated by the "517" new real estate policy, the index of business activities in real estate-related industries continued to improve slightly, with the housing construction industry increasing by 1.5% year-on-year and the real estate industry increasing by 0.3% year-on-year. However, the impact of the new real estate policy on real estate investment and construction is weak, and the construction installation and decoration and other construction industries have a deeper decline month-on-month and year-on-year. In addition, the business activity index of the service industry related to the new quality of productivity is still in the relatively high boom range, especially the telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, the Internet and software information technology services. In terms of profit indicators, the housing construction, road transport, air transport, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services performed better month-on-month, while the construction, installation and decoration and other construction, postal services, accommodation, catering and water transportation industries performed poorly month-on-month, which was a serious drag on the non-manufacturing PMI. In terms of market demand and expectations in the services sector, the business activity expectations index rose significantly, while the new orders index fell slightly. Among them, the new orders index is still below the boom and bust line, and the business activity expectation index is still above the boom and bust line. In the long run, in the context of the accelerated development of new quality productivity and the implementation of loose real estate policies in various places, information technology services and real estate industry are expected to become an important support for the upward movement of the PMI of the service industry. The index of new orders in the services sector fell 0.3 to 47.10, while the index of expectations of business activity rose 0.60 from the previous month to 57.60. Input prices rebounded slightly and selling prices fell slightly, recording 49.30 (previous 49.00) and 47.40 (previous 47.50), respectively.
The construction business activity index in June fell significantly from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in construction expansion activities. There may be three reasons behind it: first, the actual issuance of special bonds by local governments in June was 332.7 billion yuan, and the issuance rhythm was still lower than that of the same period in previous years. Second, the focus of the use of special treasury bond funds is gradually shifting from the field of infrastructure to the field of science and technology and people's livelihood, and the issuance of local bonds in the first half of the year is slow, and the physical workload in the field of infrastructure construction is lower than that of the same period in history.
In June, the construction industry new orders index/business activity expectation index recorded 44.10/54.70, down 0.0 and 1.6 month-on-month respectively, new orders are still below the boom and wither line, the business activity expectation index is still in a high boom range, but significantly lower than the same period last year, and the construction investment, decoration and decoration directly related to the construction installation and decoration and other construction industry, civil engineering construction industry business activity index was significantly lower than the previous month, down 10.4, respectively, 2.0, construction, installation and decoration and other overall drag on the construction industry is more obvious, while the business activity index of the housing construction industry has improved month-on-month, up 0.4, up 1.5 year-on-year.
Risk warning: the recovery of domestic demand is slower than expected.
The above content comes from the report "Domestic Demand Pressure Gradually Transmitted to the Production End - June PMI Review" on June 30, 2024, the author of the report Zhang Jingjing, the contact person Luo Dan, please refer to the research report for details.
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20240208 Chinese New Year dislocation disrupts CPI readings – January inflation commentary
20240207 Slowing down data on the return of people to their hometowns: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 6, 2024)
20240206 Credit is off to a different start – January financial data forecast
20240205 Markets look for more sustained aggressive policies – Macro Week Outlook (Feb 4, 2024)
20240204 2024 U.S. Election: Schedule, Focus, Election Preview
20240204 Significant Strength in the Domestic Bond Market - Tracking of Asset Allocation (29 Jan-2 Feb)
20240203 Demand-side boom drives wage growth in some industries - analysis of US employment data in January 2024
20240203 Stable economic operation at the beginning of the year - January macroeconomic forecast report
20240203 Improvement of fiscal revenue and expenditure structure - comments on December fiscal data
20240202 Some upstream and downstream industries may have entered active replenishment - a review of U.S. industry inventory data in November 2023
20240201 Will interest rate cut expectations fall again and again? ——Comments on the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in January 2024
20240131 The impact of the dislocation of the Spring Festival is beginning to emerge - PMI review in January
20240131 Minutes of the "Horizons of the Total" conference call on January 28, 2024
20240130 Positive Policy Environment: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 5, 2024)
20240129 Three Decisive Changes Internally and Externally – Macro Weekly Outlook (28 January 2024)
20240128 Some industries have entered the active replenishment of inventories - analysis of the profits of industrial enterprises in December 2023
20240128 Crude Oil Prices Soar - Tracking of Asset Allocation (January 22-January 26)
20240127 What are the possible changes to exports in 2024?
20240126 Consumption momentum strengthens the prospect of a soft landing - a review of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2023
20240124 Policy Logic of Loosening Quantity and Stabilizing Prices - Comments on the RRR Cut in January
20240123 Low-level Shock of High-frequency Data in Manufacturing Industry: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 4, 2024)
20240122 Front-running U.S.-China rate cut expectations revised – Macro Week outlook (21 January 2024)
20240121 Domestic Bond Market Strengthens - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (January 15-January 19)
A few highlights of the 20240117-end data – 2023 economic data review
20240116 The Dislocation Effect of the Spring Festival Begins to Emerge - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 3, 2024)
20240115 Some Positive Signals – Macro Weekly Outlook (January 14, 2024)
20240114 Risk appetite in the global market continues to diverge: tracking asset allocation in large categories (January 8-January 12)
20240113 Export growth in 2024 is expected - comments on import and export data in December 2023
20240113 What signals did the December financial data reveal
20240113 Moderate reflation is getting off to a good start – December inflation commentary
20240112 High prices are the key - US December CPI commentary
20240111 How do you see the marginal change in the U.S. inventory cycle?
20240110 High-frequency indicators on both sides of supply and demand in the manufacturing industry remain low: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 2, 2024)
20240109 Significant increase in the increment of building construction - the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in December from a satellite perspective
20240108 The Good News Is Low Expectations – Macro Weekly Outlook (January 7, 2024)
20240107 Global Major Equity Markets Are Underperforming - Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (January 2-January 5)
20240106 The market's preemptive expectations for interest rate cuts are facing adjustments - analysis of US employment data for December 2023
20240105 Forecast of social finance data for December
20240105 Full-Year Economic Targets Expected to Be Achieved – Macroeconomic Forecast Report (December 2023)
20240104 Weakening Supply and Demand in the Manufacturing Sector: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 1, 2024)
20240103 Promoting Stability through Progress: Interpretation of the 2023 China Financial Stability Report
20230102 Temporary Continuation of Weak Seasonality – Macro Weekly Outlook (31 Dec 2023)
20231231 Sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (December 25-December 29)
20231228 Earnings continue to improve: Midstream> upstream> downstream – Profit analysis of industrial companies, November 2023
20231227 How to understand the economic imbalances within the eurozone? -- European Economic Structure Research Series 1
20231226 The end of the cold wave and the rebound of production: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 47, 2023)
20231225 Cold spell temporarily strengthens seasonality – Macro Week outlook (24 December 2023)
20231225 Domestic long-term and short-term interest rates are declining -- tracking of major asset allocation (December 18-December 22)
20231224 What changes have taken place in exports this year?
20231223 Will the BOJ exit YCC and negative interest rates in 2024?
20231221 Waiting for the issuance of additional treasury bonds to form expenditures - a review of November fiscal data
20231219 Weakening of High-Frequency Indicators - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 46, 2023)
20231219 Perspective of China Merchants Securities' Aggregate Volume - Conference Call Minutes (20231217)
20231218 Consensus and Divergence – Macro Weekly Perspectives (17 December 2023)
20231217 10年美债下行幅度较大 ——大类资产配置跟踪(12/11-12/15)
20231216 The annual economic growth rate is likely to exceed 5% - a review of the economic data in November
20231215 What do you think of the financial data for November?
20231215 pivot or continue to move downward - US November CPI review
20231214 Variables in U.S. Treasuries after the end of interest rate hikes – December FOMC commentary
20231213 Five points of understanding of the Central Economic Work Conference
20231212 Cement Production Falls Sharply – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 45, 2023)
20231211 Continuation of the "wave" recovery pattern – Macro Week outlook (10 December 2023)
20231211 Building stock continued to decline, and roads improved significantly - the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in November from a satellite perspective
20231211 Gold Prices Turned Down: Tracking of Asset Allocation (December 4-December 8)
20231210 Reflation is still expected – November inflation review
20231209 What is the meaning of "first establish and then break"? -- Comments on the Politburo meeting
20231209 U.S. bonds may once again enter a wait-and-see period - analysis of U.S. employment data for November 2023
20231208 60 years of U.S. stocks and their political cycles
20231205 Steel Production Situation Continues to Improve: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 44, 2023)
20231204 Still at the end of passive destocking – Macro Weekly Views (December 3, 2023)
20231203 Divergence of Risk Appetite in Global Markets: Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (November 27-December 1)
20231201 Adapting to the new characteristics of money and credit – the outlook for monetary liquidity in 2024
20231201 Winter and spring - November PMI review
20231130 Returning to potential growth – domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2024
20231128 The performance of high-frequency indicators continues to improve: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 43, 2023)
20231127 Stronger on the production side than on the demand side – Macro Weekly Outlook (26 Nov 2023)
20231126 Strong rebound of the RMB exchange rate - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (November 20-November 24)
20231123 Fiscal revenue and expenditure improved simultaneously - a review of fiscal data in October
20231122 High-frequency indicators stop falling and rebound - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 42, 2023)
20231120 A New Economic Platform, Breakthroughs Must Be Worked Hard: Macro Weekly Views (19 November 2023)
20231119 U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar fell sharply - tracking the allocation of major asset categories (Nov 13-Nov 17)
20231118 Key Consensus of the 2023 APEC Summit
20231117 Review: Asset performance after the Fed's rate hikes ended
20231116 Anchor of next year's economic growth - a review of economic data in October
20231115 Cooling down as scheduled - US CPI review for October
20231115 The Domestic Economy Enters the Off-Season: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 41, 2023)
20231114 What do you think of the financial data in October?
20231113 How do you see the internal and external marginal changes? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (November 12, 2023)
20231113 Crude oil prices have fallen significantly - tracking of major asset allocation (November 6-November 10)
20231112 Can undervalued U.S. consumption continue to exceed expectations? -- Also talking about the outlook for U.S. consumption in 2024
20231111 Slight decline in construction - the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in October from a satellite perspective
20231110 When will it pick up again? -- October inflation commentary
20231109 Causes of asset price differentiation and conditions for convergence
20231108 Why does export growth remain low? ——Comments on import and export data in October 2023
20231107 Short-term data fluctuations are not the main contradiction of the current A-share trend: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 40, 2023)
20231105 How do you see the global manufacturing PMI cooling down in October? ——Macro Week Outlook (November 5, 2023)
20231105 Insight Cycle: Where is the U.S.-China Inventory Cycle?
20231105 Global Major Equity Markets Rebound Significantly - Tracking of Asset Allocation (October 30-November 3)
20231104 Employment data turned worse as expected – analysis of US employment data for October
20231104 What do you think of the BOJ's fine-tuning of YCC? -- Comments on the Bank of Japan's October monetary policy decision
20231031 Several sets of high-frequency data worth paying attention to - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 39, 2023)20231031 "tight balance" on the capital side - October liquidity monthly report
20231030 Can Proactive Fiscal Boost Sentiment Further? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (October 29, 2023)
20231029 Overseas layout of domestic enterprises: region, field, growth rate
20231029 Domestic Equity Market Performs Well - Tracking of Asset Allocation (October 23-October 27)
20231028 The signal of the shift to active replenishment is becoming more obvious - analysis of the profits of industrial enterprises in September 2023
20231027 Why did U.S. stocks fall after the Q3 data release? -- Commentary on US GDP data for the third quarter of 2023
20231027 Fiscal enthusiasm continues to improve - comments on September fiscal data
20231026 Fundamentals Continue to Improve - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 38, 2023)
20231025 Two key changes regarding the issuance of additional treasury bonds
20231024 This round of interest rate hikes is not the same as an analysis of U.S. fiscal stress
20231023 Changes in the tone of domestic and foreign policies are key – Macro Week Perspectives (22 October 2023)
20231022 Global Major Equity Markets Fall - Asset Allocation Tracking (Oct. 16-Oct. 20)
20231019 What are the main outcomes of the Belt and Road Summit?
20231018 Where can the inner life of the larger-than-expected recovery be? -- Comments on economic data for the third quarter
20231017 Rapid Rebound in Production: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 37, 2023)
20231016 U.S. 10 bond yields fall from high levels - tracking asset allocation in major categories (October 9-October 13)
20231016 There is still room for the economy to recover – Macro Week Outlook (15 October 2023)
20231015 Government bonds support social finance - a review of financial data in September
20231013 Focus on the structural characteristics of reflation – September inflation commentary
20231013 Highlights and prospects of export structure - comments on import and export data in September
20231013 Construction is basically stable: the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in September from a satellite perspective
20231013 Inflation can't eliminate FED policy divergence – US CPI commentary for September
20231012 How competitive are China's major export chains? ——Export Topic (4)
20231011 Fluctuations in high-frequency production data due to long holidays - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 36, 2023)
20231010 Improving Domestic Demand – Macro Weekly Outlook (8 October 2023)
20231008 Which stage of the overseas market is most like this holiday?
20231007 Continued stress test overseas - analysis of US employment data for September
20231006 Spatial estimation of consumption recovery
20231005 Increasing Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination - September Liquidity Monthly Report
20231004 Assess the default risk of U.S. corporate bonds in 7 dimensions
20231003 What is the competitiveness of the five major industrial chains such as automobiles and machinery? -- Dismantling of key export industry chains
20231001 Towards the full-year economic target – September macroeconomic forecast
20230930 After breaking through the boom and bust line, how will the manufacturing PMI go? - September PMI review
20230927 Profit growth in the month has turned sharply positive - analysis of the profits of industrial enterprises in August
20230926 Domestic Economic Activity Continues to Improve: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 35, 2023)
20230925 Increasing Positives – Macro Weekly Outlook (24 September 2023)
20230924 Mainland equity market performed well – tracking asset allocation in major categories (18 Sep-22 Sep)
20230923 What is the relationship between long-term bond interest rates and government leverage? - Emerging Countries
20230921 A soft landing is not the primary goal – comments from the September Fed meeting
20230920 Logistics Data Continues to Pick Up: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 34, 2023)
20230919 Two factors and four quadrants, the performance and outlook of various types of assets
20230918 Increasing certainty of economic recovery – Macro Week outlook (17 September 2023)
20230917 Revenues slow, spending is strong – August fiscal data commentary
20230917 RMB exchange rate rebounds and rebounds - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (September 11-September 15)
20230916 As the economy picks up, what is the progress of the annual target? -- Comments on economic data in August
20230915 Escort capital - MLF operation comments and RRR cuts in September
20230914 Wait patiently for employment to beat inflation - US CPI review for August
20230913 The effect of the policy has been shown in the second-hand housing listing index in first-tier cities: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 33, 2023)
20230912 August financial data review
20230912 Construction continues to pick up - marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in August from a satellite perspective
20230911 Industrial Policy Relay Aggregate Policy – Macro Weekly Views (10 September 2023)
20230911 The sustainability of consumption recovery and the signal of the bottom of investment and exports---the macroeconomic situation during the year
20230910 Crude oil prices have risen significantly - tracking of major asset allocation (September 4-September 8)
20230910 Inflation picked up as expected, and the dynamic structure is the key - August inflation review
20230908 What High-Frequency Indicators Should Be Paid Attention to at Present: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 32, 2023)
20230906 What is the relationship between long-term bond interest rates and government leverage? - Developed countries
20230905 Return to Accommodative - Analysis of the Central Bank's Financial Statements
20230904 Gaining momentum – Macro Weekly Outlook (3 September 2023)
20230904 Global Major Equity Markets Generally Rise - Asset Allocation Tracking (August 28 - September 1)
20230902 We are standing on the left side of the inflection point of the Fed's first-order policy guidance - analysis of US employment data for August 2023 20230901 Positive factors are accumulating - August macroeconomic forecast report 20230831 September manufacturing PMI is expected to return to the boom and bust line - August PMI review
20230830 Bank of Japan's Policy Shift: Black Swan Turns Grey Rhino – Overseas Liquidity Series (1)
20230829 When will the fragile balance between supply and demand be broken: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 31, 2023)
20230828 Three Steps to Turn: Stabilization, Revitalization, and Boost - Macro Weekly Views (August 27, 2023) 20230828 The Cumulative Growth Rate of Profits Continues to Narrow - Analysis of Industrial Enterprises' Profits in July 2023 20230827 Gold Prices Rise Significantly - Tracking of Asset Allocation (August 21 - August 25) 20230827 No need to subscribe for a mortgage: what is the macro impact? 20230826 Jackson Hole: What is the signal from the global central bank meeting? 20230825 Global Competitiveness of Chinese Enterprises Series (III) - Industrial Transfer and Long-term Export 20230824 from the Global Value Chain Global Competitiveness of Chinese Enterprises Series (II) - Competitiveness and Product Dependence from the Perspective of Export Changes 20230823 Global Competitiveness of Chinese Enterprises Series (1) - Which Commodity Export Growth Rates Are Expected to Pick Up in the Second Half of the Year? 20230822 Production Improvement and Weakening Prices: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 30, 2023)20230821 The Turn is in Progress – Macro Weekly Perspectives (20 August 2023) 20230820 Global Capex Upward Cycle under the Reshaping of Value Chains – Reshaping Global Value Chains Series (1) 20230820 Equity market risk aversion is heating up -- Tracking of asset allocation in major categories (August 14 - August 18)20230818 The tone is loosening - Interpretation of the Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter 20230817 Industrial Transfer and Long-term Exports from the Global Value Chain - Export Topics (3) 20230816 Asymmetric Interest Rate Cuts with Loose Prices and Tight Quantities - A Review of MLF Operations in August 20230816 Aggregate Characteristics, Quantitative Estimates and Structural Highlights - A Review of Economic Data in July 20230814 Short-term disruptions need to wait for policy breakthroughs – Macro Week Perspectives (August 13, 2023)
20230813 Where is the inventory cycle in various industries? ——The second inflection point of the cycle 20230813 Crude oil prices continue to rise - tracking of asset allocation (August 7 - August 11)
20230812 Deposits and loans fell simultaneously - comments on financial data in July 20230812 Construction increased and stopped falling - the marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in July from a satellite perspective
20230811 Core CPI may fall rapidly - US CPI comments for July 20230810 Has the overseas risk domino begun? 20230810 Core Inflation Begins to Improve MoM – July Inflation Review 20230809 Seeing Through the Inventory Cycle: Underlying Logic, Path Forecasting, and Asset Mapping – Part of the "Inflection Point of the Cycle" series 20230809 The low point of export growth in the current month of this year has reached - a review of import and export data in July 2023 20230808 Pay attention to the export situation after the export container freight index stabilizes: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 28, 2023)
20230808 Changes in Exports from the Perspective of Competitiveness and Product Dependence – Export Topics (2) 20230807 Mysterious Currency Swaps – Lifting the "Veil" of Exchange Rates Part 3 20230807 Slow is Fast – Macro Week Perspectives (6 August 2023)
20230806 Which commodity export growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year? -- Export Topic (1) 20230806 U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise -- tracking of asset allocation (July 31-August 4) 20230805 Which countries have increased their country risks overseas this year?20230805 The unemployment rate is the core contradiction - analysis of US employment data in July 2023
20230804 South Korea's Road to Industrial Upgrading: From Export-Oriented to Technologically and Cultural Power 20230803 What is the impact of the downgrade of the U.S. rating? 20230802 Year-on-year bottoms of many indicators appear - July macroeconomic forecast report 20230801 What high-frequency indicators can we pay attention to after the Politburo meeting in July - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 27, 2023) 20230801 Conditions for the manufacturing PMI to return to the boom and bust line - July PMI commentary 20230731 Risk appetite and fixed investment growth will pick up in tandem - Macro Weekly Views (July 30, 2023)
20230730 What kind of harvest will be in the autumn - the context of asset allocation in large categories (Q3 2023)
20230730 Hong Kong stocks and A-shares both rose significantly - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (July 24-July 28)
20230729 Why is the U.S. economy less sensitive to FED rate hikes?
20230729 U.S. Q2 Economy in the Rising Capital Expenditure Cycle - A Review of U.S. GDP Data for the Second Quarter of 2023