In the past week, stock ETFs "absorbed" 41.2 billion yuan, and the net inflow of bank ETFs was among the top

21st Century Business Herald reporter Yi Yanjun reported from Guangzhou

Last week (June 24-June 28), A-shares continued to fluctuate and adjust, and the three major stock indexes all fell. However, the banking sector bucked the market and strengthened against the market, rising 1.98% for the week, leading the Shenwan first-class industry index.

At the same time, the inflow of funds into equity ETFs accelerated. According to wind statistics, from June 24th to 28th, the scale of stock ETF "gold absorption" reached 41.237 billion yuan. CSI 300 ETF, CSI 500 ETF, CSI 1000 ETF, bank ETF and securities ETF were the top net inflows.

Among them, E Fund Bank ETF received a net inflow of 898 million yuan, making it the largest industry-themed ETF in the week.

Feng Songyue, a researcher in the financial industry of Minsheng Jiayin Fund, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that in the context of equity market fluctuations, the overall trend of the banking sector in the second quarter was better, and the sector roughly experienced two rounds of main line opportunities, and the style before and after switched. Follow-up bank stocks can still focus on the main line of dividend style, while focusing on pro-cyclical opportunities with upward resilience.

The net inflow of bank ETFs was nearly 900 million yuan

Recently, the inflow of funds into equity ETFs has accelerated.

According to wind statistics, from June 24 to 28, stock ETFs received a total net inflow of 41.237 billion yuan. Among them, CSI 300 ETF, CSI 500 ETF, CSI 1000 ETF, bank ETF and securities ETF had the highest net inflows.

Specifically, broad-based ETFs are still the "king of gold absorption": this week, the four largest CSI 300 ETFs in the whole market received a total net inflow of 23.891 billion yuan. Among them, Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 ETF had a net inflow of 12.38 billion yuan, ranking first among stock ETFs.

At the same time, the net inflows of CSI 500 ETF and CSI 1000 ETF reached 4.745 billion yuan and 1.040 billion yuan respectively, ranking third and sixth among stock ETFs respectively. Yinhua A50 ETF, Huaxia Kechuang 50 ETF and Penghua Kechuang 100 ETF also received more net inflows, with amounts of 763 million yuan, 648 million yuan and 445 million yuan respectively.

In addition, this week, E Fund Bank ETF, Cathay Securities ETF, Huabao Brokerage ETF, and E Fund Pharmaceutical ETF received net inflows of 898 million yuan, 781 million yuan, 523 million yuan, and 362 million yuan respectively, making them the top five industry-themed ETFs in terms of net inflows that week.

It is worth mentioning that while gaining the favor of funds, the banking sector has recently added a touch of brightness to the sluggish A-share market. Not only this week, but throughout the second quarter, the bank index also led the rise of the Shenwan first-class industry index.

Wind statistics show that in the second quarter of this year (April 1 to June 30), the bank index rose by 5.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.95 percentage points, and was the best performing industry among the 31 Shenwan primary industry indexes. It was followed by the utilities and electronics indexes, which rose by 5.24% and 1.55% respectively.

Feng Songyue pointed out to reporters that in the context of equity market fluctuations, the overall trend of the banking sector in the second quarter was good, and the sector has roughly experienced two rounds of mainline opportunities, and the style has switched before and after.

According to Feng Songyue's specific analysis, the first round of main line opportunities is the dividend market that lasted from the end of last year to April this year, and banks with higher dividend yields and stable dividends were among the top gainers. The main driver of this round of rise is the slow recovery of the macro economy, the continuous decline in the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, the large volatility of the equity market, and the increase in the price advantage of bank stocks with high dividends and long-term stable dividends, and the dividend yield of many banks is above 5%, or even 6%-7%, reflecting a strong allocation value.

From the perspective of capital, the incremental funds of the market are mainly concentrated in passive index funds, insurance funds, and northbound funds, and the three types of funds are mainly based on stable value style, which provides strong financial support for the rise of bank stocks.

Feng Songyue further said that in terms of passive index funds, they have continued to expand since the beginning of the year, especially the scale of large-cap broad-based ETFs represented by the CSI 300 has grown rapidly, and banks, as the largest weighted industry in the CSI 300 index, have fully benefited from the incremental funds brought by the expansion of passive funds; In terms of insurance funds, benefiting from the hot sales of insurance products since the beginning of the year, the scale of funds has increased significantly, and the demand for allocation has increased. From the perspective of medium- and long-term investment of insurance funds, bank stocks with high dividends and stable operating performance are also attractive. In terms of northbound funds, bank stocks are also a key holding direction, and the net inflow of bank stocks ranks high among various industries.

"The second round of main line opportunities is the pro-cyclical market from April to May, with small and medium-sized banks with excellent performance and growth style leading the gains, and the style has switched compared with before. The main driver of this round of rise is the improvement of market expectations brought about by factors such as fiscal policy and real estate policy optimization. In addition, the central bank has stated that it will stabilize long-term interest rates, and the logic of high dividends has also weakened slightly at the margin. However, at the end of May, the banking sector began to see a slight pullback, mainly due to the fluctuation of financial data caused by the credit 'squeeze', the introduction of real estate policies and other factors, and the pro-cyclical logic of bank stocks also ushered in a pullback. Feng Songyue said.

Focus on two types of opportunities

Some institutions believe that there are still opportunities in the banking sector in the future.

China AMC Fund said that the pressure of asset shortage will continue, although the prosperity of bank stocks is weak, but the valuation is low, the dividend yield is high, and high-quality banks maintain stable dividends, and the revaluation of dividend value has not ended. In addition, as an allocation asset, the downward margin of safety of bank stocks is supported by dividend yields, and at the same time, it has pro-cyclical attributes, and if the economy stabilizes, there is also valuation elasticity on the upside. The logic of real estate stabilization, economic recovery, and net interest margin stabilization may accelerate valuation repair.

"Moreover, bank stocks will comprehensively promote interim dividends from 2024, forming a potential catalyst. Increasing the frequency of dividends is itself conducive to the valuation repair of bank stocks and reduces stock price volatility. The person analyzed.

According to statistics, as of June 27, 19 A-share listed banks have distributed cash dividends in 2023, with a total dividend amount of 139.893 billion yuan, of which 8 banks have a dividend ratio of more than 30%, and Bank of Suzhou is the highest, reaching 31.08%.

In Feng Songyue's view, follow-up bank stocks can still pay attention to the main line of dividend style, and at the same time pay attention to pro-cyclical opportunities with upward elasticity.

Feng Songyue analyzed that, on the one hand, the dividend style may still be the main line of sustainability in the banking sector. In the context of equity market fluctuations and downward risk-free interest rates, the characteristics of high dividends and long-term stable dividends of bank stocks are still distinct, especially after a slight pullback from the end of May to mid-June, the price advantage of high dividends and low valuation of the banking sector has been improved again, and the cost performance of some excellent bank stocks is highlighted, which is still highly attractive to market funds. From the perspective of incremental funds, the allocation demand of the above-mentioned passive index funds and insurance funds is also expected to continue, or continue to become a good support for the banking sector.

On the other hand, it can also be expected that small and medium-sized banks with excellent performance and pro-cyclical logic will usher in phased opportunities again, mainly due to two reasons: first, with the macro policy taking effect and the gradual recovery of the economy, pro-cyclical bank stocks are expected to usher in recovery again, and the market is looking forward to the upcoming Third Plenary Session in July, which may become a phased catalyst for the banking sector.

Second, from a fundamental point of view, the banking sector is expected to usher in some signals of bottom improvement. First, driven by the gradual digestion of the downward pressure on asset interest rates and the continuous optimization of deposit costs, the decline in bank interest margins is expected to gradually converge, and some banks may take the lead in ushering in stabilization. Second, the real estate risk pressure has been continuously alleviated driven by policy optimization. These signals of bottoming out and stabilizing are conducive to the recovery of bank stocks.

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