Today, I would like to tell you about a huge change in the bank, if you have bank deposits, you must pay close attention to this news, after all, it is related to the safety of your deposits.
Perhaps, the wave of mergers and closures of small and medium-sized banks is really coming!
On May 23, the Department of Supervision of Rural Small and Medium-sized Banks of the State Administration of Financial Supervision published an article:
Accelerate the merger and reorganization of small and medium-sized rural banks, and reduce the number and level of small and medium-sized banking institutions in rural areas.
As soon as this statement came out, news of the closure of small and medium-sized banks in rural areas came out one after another.
On June 18, Zhejiang Chouzhou Bank absorbed and merged two village banks in Zhoushan;
On June 20, 36 small and medium-sized rural banks in Liaoning announced their "dissolution" and were absorbed and merged by Liaoning Rural Commercial Bank. On the same day, two village and township banks in Guangdong were also absorbed and merged.
……
According to some statistics, in just seven days, 40 small and medium-sized rural banks were absorbed, merged/dissolved.
Compared with the average monthly exit rate of 6.4 last year, the exit of small and medium-sized banks this year is obviously on the agenda.
In addition, there is a grapevine that the country's two largest state-owned banks and a leading joint-stock bank are stepping up scrutiny of small banks to prevent the real estate debt crisis from worsening and spreading into credit risks.
Looking at all kinds of news together, the conclusion is obvious, and the attitude of the above towards small and medium-sized banks is to clear them as soon as possible.
In fact, this conclusion can be seen from various super-heavy meetings last year.
In December 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference: It is necessary to coordinate and resolve risks such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions;
In October 2023, the Central Financial Work Conference: Strict access standards and regulatory requirements for small and medium-sized financial institutions...... Deal with the risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions in a timely manner.
Therefore, it is estimated that in the future, the wave of small banks will be closed, and the wave of mergers and reorganizations of medium-sized banks will only intensify.
What is a small or medium-sized bank?
Please be sure to pay attention to whether there is a place where you can save money, which refers to urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks, rural cooperative banks, rural credit cooperatives, private banks, and village and township banks.
Small and medium-sized banks account for more than ninety percent of the banking industry.
The reason why the above wants to liquidate/merge small and medium-sized banks is simple, and it has become the most unstable factor in the entire banking system.
For example, in recent years, it has been difficult for village and town banks to withdraw money, and some village and town banks in Henan and Anhui have been reported by depositors that they cannot withdraw money online.
To put it simply, village and township banks have been "hollowed out" by private capital and their deposits have been illegally transferred, so these village and township banks have not been able to repay depositors' deposits.
If you have money, you will deposit it in the bank, which is everyone's trust in the bank; Being able to meet everyone's withdrawal needs at any time is the foundation for banks to absorb deposits and for banks to establish credit in society.
When banks can't even take out depositors' deposits, do you have any trust in the banking system?
Therefore, the fact that banks cannot take out depositors' deposits is not only a matter of money, but also a matter of people's trust in the banking system.
Of course, most small and medium-sized banks have not yet reached this point, but the situation is not much better.
As we all know, banks make money by lending, but in the current environment, there is still a bit of a difference between large, medium, and small banks, and large banks still have loans to lend, while small banks have been embarrassed to "find money" everywhere because of the squeeze on the business of large banks and the inability to lend funds to the province.
The recent "bond buying turmoil" is one of the ways for small and medium-sized banks to "find money".
To put it simply, some small and medium-sized financial institutions took the money in their hands to buy treasury bonds, resulting in the recent low yield on treasury bonds, so the governor of the central bank, Pan, said at the Lujiazui forum a few days ago:
The risk incident of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States has taught us that the central bank needs to correct and block the accumulation of financial market risks in a timely manner, and at present, it is especially necessary to pay attention to the maturity mismatch and interest rate risk of some non-bank entities holding a large number of medium and long-term bonds, maintain a normal upward slope yield curve, and maintain the positive incentive effect of the market on investment.
Here is an explanation that the yield of government bonds and the market price are opposite, and the more people buy, the higher the buying price, but the lower the yield.
Generally speaking, we believe that the yield of government bonds is higher than the deposit rate, and the yield of government bonds has fallen, which means that your current interest rate is too high, which is a bit of a reversal of the central bank to cut interest rates.
Although Governor Pan named non-bank institutions, in the past two years, small and medium-sized banks have also contributed to the bond market, and they have only converged after being warned of risks by the central bank in the past two months.
Rural commercial banks, which are the most active in buying long-term bonds, are typical examples.
There has always been a saying in the market that "large banks prefer to lend money, and small and medium-sized banks prefer to buy bonds for investment".
The reason for this phenomenon is that the total amount of loans in the society is limited, and most of the limited loan demand has entered the large banks, resulting in the loan growth rate of small and medium-sized banks not keeping up with the growth rate of deposits, so small and medium-sized banks can only take the money in their hands to buy bonds and pull income.
But now, this road for small and medium-sized banks has been blocked.
The purpose of the state's issuance of treasury bonds is to support the economy, to try to change the track, and to open up a new route for water release, not to let the money of your financial institutions and small and medium-sized banks come in, nor to let financial idling continue to occur.
Therefore, it is not allowed for the money of financial institutions and small and medium-sized banks to continue to transfer in the bond market, which is also what President Pan said about being wary of the risks of Silicon Valley Bank.
However, when it comes to small and medium-sized banks, it is another way of saying that the loan market cannot pull money, and the money in the deposit market continues to come in, and the interest rate spread space is getting smaller and smaller, and even in some village and township banks, the proportion of loans is less than 50% of the total assets.
The 50% index line is the requirement of the regulatory authorities for the proportion of loans of rural commercial banks. In recent years, rural commercial banks have reached the standard as a whole, but there are indeed some special circumstances, and some banks have not met the standard.
Then the situation of these banks is very dangerous.
Then the question arises here, is this part of the bank a minority? It's hard to answer for the time being, but more and more problems from many small and medium-sized banks have been exposed.
This is reflected in the data:
First, the non-performing loans of many small and medium-sized banks have been rising in the past two years, and they are significantly larger than those of state-owned banks.
Second, according to the stress test results of the China Financial Stability Report 2023, if the NPL rate increases by 100%, 200%, and 400% respectively, 1347, 2020, and 2605 of the 3,966 non-D-SIBs will fail the stress test.
Therefore, in this case, it is inevitable that small and medium-sized banks will continue to close down.
And everyone is concerned about the security of deposits, as long as it is a big bank, there is no problem, the safe bank deposit law can protect below 50W, if you save money to save more than 50W, in case the bank goes bankrupt, it is not protected, so there are many skills when depositing, the most basic is to diversify investment, and try to only deposit in large banks.
In recent years, many families have saved a lot of money, so be sure to pay attention to security and share this article with your relatives and friends, so that they can also understand the recent changes.
Source: Phoenix Real Estate