In recent years, under the influence of extreme weather and aging power facilities, there have been many large-scale power outages in the United States. This summer, the risk of an imbalance between power supply and demand has resurfaced, and the reliability of the U.S. power grid is once again facing a severe test.
The North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) recently released the "2024 Summer Reliability Assessment Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), saying that under the influence of extreme heat in summer, the Midwest, Southwest, Northeast and other regions of the United States are facing the risk of insufficient power supply, and residential electricity may not be guaranteed. In recent years, under the influence of extreme weather and aging power facilities, there have been many large-scale power outages in the United States. This summer, the risk of an imbalance between power supply and demand has resurfaced, and the reliability of the U.S. power grid is once again facing a severe test.
There is a risk of power shortage in many places
The report pointed out that as the temperature rises, the electricity consumption of households and industrial and commercial enterprises in the United States will rise, on the one hand, the demand for air conditioning will increase, and on the other hand, the hot weather will affect the power supply side, increasing the risk of power outages. In addition, widespread heat waves can also lead to restrictions on normal power delivery routes, with states in the U.S. prioritizing local power supply to reduce power delivery levels. The latest assessment shows that there are sufficient resources for the expected power supply in all regions of the United States, but this does not mean that the grid can cope with extreme weather, especially in the hot summer conditions, and many parts of the United States are at risk of power supply shortages. In the northeastern United States, for example, in New England, two natural gas power generation facilities were decommissioned in May this year, which directly led to a decline in power supply capacity in the region, and in hot weather, the region will have to resort to neighboring regions, and unstable power supply sources may cause power shortages in the region. In Texas, USA, according to the report, the power grid in the region carries a large number of wind power and photovoltaic installations, and the amount of photovoltaic power generation in the summer night period has dropped significantly. According to the report, weather forecasting agencies clearly predict that North American temperatures may be above historical averages this summer, which will directly lead to challenges in grid operations.
Extreme heat may exacerbate the contradiction between supply and demand
Since June, the temperature in the Midwest, Northeast and other regions of the United States has been rising, according to the American media CNN, the temperature in many places has broken through the historical extreme, setting a new record. Against this backdrop, the risk profile predicted in the Report is gradually becoming a reality.
According to a number of foreign media reports, more than 70 million residents in many cities in the Midwest and Northeast of the United States have been affected by extreme heat waves, and about 16,000 people in Pennsylvania have been severely affected by power outages and air conditioners. According to the British "Guardian" newspaper, the hot weather has caused some infrastructure operations in the United States to be blocked, among them, some trains between New York and New Jersey have temporarily stopped operating due to power outages. U.S. train operators also issued announcements saying that vehicles in operation also had to slow down due to the heat wave. The increasing frequency of power outages has further put pressure on the already much-criticized power supply in the United States, and has also sparked discussions about "energy equity" in the United States. According to the latest industry report data, CNBC in the United States says that nearly 3 million consumers in the United States are cut off every year because they cannot afford to pay their electricity bills, and low-income people are particularly hit hard. CNBC wrote that power outages in extreme heat are likely to affect consumers' health and even endanger lives, and the U.S. government needs to do more to make electricity cheaper and more accessible.
Slow upgrades weaken grid reliability
In addition to the impact of objective factors such as extreme weather, the report also clearly points out that the untimely expansion of the U.S. power grid itself and the slow growth of power generation capacity may lead to the decline in grid reliability. The report pointed out that although the U.S. power regulator has put forward the latest demand forecast based on last summer's electricity consumption, the new data centers and bitcoin "mining" in various places continue to push up the demand for electricity, and the new installed power capacity cannot meet the power supply demand, and the volatility of renewable energy generation poses a challenge to power supply. In addition, the development of supporting transmission lines for new power generation projects has also been less than expected, which has become a bottleneck in the growth of power supply capacity in the United States. At the same time, supply chain issues in the U.S. energy sector are prominent, slowing down the roll-out of new power generation projects and transmission projects. Since 2020, the delivery time of power equipment such as transformers, transmission cables, switchgears and photovoltaic panels in the United States has been significantly longer, seriously affecting the construction and upgrading of new projects and seasonal preparations, according to the report. Overall, the lack of capacity in the U.S. energy supply chain is fueling concerns about grid reliability. In addition, industry insiders have warned that the U.S. government's measures to address climate change may accelerate the pace of withdrawal of high-carbon power, and higher retirement levels will further exacerbate the tension between power supply and demand. Back in late 2023, NERC assessed the long-term reliability of the U.S. power grid, raising multiple risks such as supply chain disruptions, surges in demand, and inadequate grid modernization, which have not been addressed so far. According to Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative, the prospects for the development of the U.S. power grid are not optimistic amid the growth of electricity demand and the decline in available supply capacity.
Text丨Reporter Li Limin
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