The so-called "people take food as the sky", and the first thing that human beings want to live is to eat enough.
Therefore, grain has always been the foundation for our survival and development, and the cornerstone of national stability and people's peaceful housing.
Especially in the face of the current complex international situation, food security is the most important issue for any country.
As one of the world's most populous countries, food security has always been a top priority.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, all regions and departments have strictly implemented the responsibility of cultivated land protection and food security, and continued to increase support for grain production.
The mainland has made continuous progress and development in agricultural modernization, and domestic grain production has steadily increased:
In 2023, the country's total grain output will be 1,390.82 billion catties, an increase of 17.76 billion catties or 1.3% over the previous year, and it will remain stable at more than 1.3 trillion catties for 9 consecutive years.
Among them, the sown area of wheat was 354 million mu, an increase of 1.632 million mu or 0.5% over the previous year;
The sown area of corn was 663 million mu, an increase of 17.232 million mu or 2.7% over the previous year.
Judging from the current situation, the mainland has had a bumper grain harvest for many years, and the 1.9 billion mu of arable land has created a miracle in world grain production, which has almost reached the level of "absolute security."
However, in the context of increasing grain production year by year, the mainland is still importing a large amount of grain:
According to customs statistics, the mainland will import a total of 162 million tons of grain in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%;
In terms of proportion, 162 million tons of grain imports in 2023 will account for 23.3% of the mainland's grain output of 695.41 million tons that year.
Historically, this is the second highest year for the mainland's grain imports, second only to 164.54 million tons in 2021.
From the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China to the stage of reform and opening up, China's agricultural development was slow, and many regions were still in the traditional and backward mode of production. Coupled with low productivity, China's food situation is still in a state of scarcity.
If you want everyone to have enough to eat, you have to rely on imported food to barely maintain the balance between supply and demand.
Therefore, the import of grain during this period of time is a helpless move.
By 1976, hybrid rice was popularized and planted throughout the country; In 1978, with the implementation of the household production contract system, the mainland's rice output rose all the way, steadily occupying the first position in the world.
With such an astonishing grain output, why does the mainland choose to import grain from abroad? What is the reason behind this?
First, foreign grain is cheap, the price gap between domestic and foreign countries is widening, and imports are profitable;
The inversion of grain prices at home and abroad is an important reason for the increase in grain imports:
On the one hand, the cost of domestic agricultural production in terms of land and labor is relatively high;
On the other hand, foreign agricultural production has advantages in science and technology, large-scale operation, etc., so that the production cost is relatively low.
During the peak period in previous years, the prices of several major staple grains in China were more than 50 percent higher than those in foreign countries.
Therefore, even if the supply of some domestic grain products is sufficient, many grain production and processing enterprises are still more willing to purchase cheap grain in the international market.
According to the simple calculation of the grain import amount of 578.05 billion yuan in 2023, the average unit price of 162 million tons of imported grain is 3,569 yuan per ton.
A simple calculation shows that it is indeed 229 yuan lower than the average unit price of imported grain in 22 years, which is 3,798 yuan per ton.
The grain produced each year does not completely enter the market, but part of it is purchased by the state and stored inside the granary.
This is also an important measure to ensure national food security, in the event of a special event, the state can regulate food prices by releasing grain:
In 2006~2008, a serious food crisis broke out in the world, and international rice, wheat, and corn prices soared.
In our country, because there is enough granary storage, the amount of grain in the market can still remain stable, and the price does not fluctuate much.
After all, food still depends on the sky for food, and in the event of a natural disaster such as a drought or flood that has not been encountered in a thousand years, the blow to agriculture will be devastating.
At the same time, in order to make the peasants have the initiative to grow grain, the state also needs to ensure the price security of the grain industry and consider economic returns.
During the epidemic, domestic grain prices soared, and the mainland effectively supplemented the food supply by importing a large amount of grain to avoid a sharp rise in food prices.
This is also an important reason for the sharp increase in food imports since the epidemic.
Therefore, importing food from other countries has also become an important measure to ensure food security.
In order for the peasants to make a profit from growing grain and to prevent the occurrence of "cheap grain hurting the peasants," the mainland has implemented import tariff quota management on the three major staple grains of wheat, corn, and rice, so as to prevent low-priced foreign grain from impacting the domestic market.
Second, domestic demand is strong, and it is necessary to rely on imports to increase supply and meet the balance of supply and demand in the market.
We are a truly populous country, but due to our geographical location and the progress of urbanization, the area of arable land suitable for cultivation is quite limited, and there is not much room for growth.
At the same time, water scarcity, environmental pollution and land degradation are also limiting the further expansion of food production.
Although the mainland has been striving to increase its food self-sufficiency rate, it is also facing increasing challenges.
In order to ensure the supply of the huge domestic dietary needs and ensure food security, the mainland needs to make rational use of the resources of the international market.
In fact, the self-sufficiency rate of China's three major staple grains has always been maintained at more than 95 percent, and it is completely self-sufficient.
In the past eight years, the mainland's grain output has always remained above 1.3 trillion jin, and according to the total population of Chinese mainland of 1.412 billion, the grain output per person a year is more than 960 jin.
By converting the international food security standard of 400 kilograms of grain per capita, the mainland has achieved absolute security and basic self-sufficiency in cereal rations.
What really accounts for the majority of the mainland's grain imports is feed grain.
Judging from 2023 alone, ninety percent of the grain imported by the mainland is feed grain, and rations account for less than one-percent.
In particular, beans were imported 102.86 million tons, accounting for 63.51% of the total; The total import value of soybeans was 419.895 billion yuan, accounting for 72.4% of the total value of imported grain.
Not only in 2023, but in fact, over the years, soybean imports have increased year by year, occupying the largest number of imported grain types.
In 2021, the mainland's soybean output was only 16.4 million tons, while the import volume was 91.02 million tons, and the dependence on soybean imports has even become a major hidden danger to the mainland's food security.
Why is the mainland's demand for soybeans so high?
Although soybeans are not a staple food and are consumed less directly, they are the main raw material for feed and are used by breeding enterprises. big
The main role of soybean is oil extraction and feed processing, which is an indispensable grain type on the mainland, but compared with the other three major staple foods, soybean cultivation requires large labor input and low yield.
In addition, the mainland has a large population and a small area of cultivated land, so it is first necessary to ensure the sowing of staple grains to ensure national food security.
Although the northeast plain of the mainland is vast and fertile, and soybeans are rich in nutrients, the amount of soybeans cannot meet the basic needs of the people and the catering industry by relying only on our own production.
In general, among the types of food crops in China, soybeans are in a relatively weak position.
However, although the number of plantings is small, the demand for soybeans in the mainland is very high -
With the improvement of living standards and the change of dietary concepts, people have begun to pay more attention to nutritional balance and food diversification, and the traditional grain-based diet structure is gradually being replaced by a more diversified modern dietary structure.
The economic level is getting better and better, and everyone's food and clothing are guaranteed, and we will definitely pursue more high-quality food.
According to Bennett's law, as income increases and the economy grows, people will gradually reduce their dependence on staple foods and increase their intake of other foods.
Therefore, the demand for meat, protein seafood and other foods, which are in the second echelon of food content, has shown a strong growth trend.
The daily meat consumption of residents began to rise, and China's aquaculture industry entered a stage of brilliant development.
And it is this growth that has had an indirect impact on the demand for cereals -
Driven by demand factors such as sufficient livestock and poultry production capacity and accelerated large-scale process, feed output has grown rapidly, and the total output of industrial feed in the country will reach 232.64 million tons in 2023.
In order to meet the sufficient intake of feed protein for livestock and poultry, most of the feed raw materials for livestock and poultry in the mainland are mainly soybean meal, which causes a high demand for soybeans.
This imbalance between supply and demand has become one of the important factors driving the mainland's soybean imports.
There is a big gap between the soybean yield in the mainland and the advanced level in the world, and the first variety mentioned in this year's "No. 1 document" when talking about food security is soybean.
In addition to consolidating the results of soybean expansion, from the practice of large-scale domestic breeding enterprises, there is also room for downward adjustment of soybean meal consumption:
Especially in 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will guide the feed breeding industry to use scientific materials, reduce the amount of soybean meal, and the reduction and substitution of soybean meal for feed will have obvious results——
In 2023, the proportion of soybean meal in the feed formula will decrease, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared with 2022, which is equivalent to a reduction of about 9 million tons of soybean consumption.
Fundamentally saving costs and reducing expenses is also a way to ease imports. It is believed that the mainland will soon be able to reduce its dependence on imported soybeans.
Lao She, a famous writer in the mainland, once mentioned a plot in his book "Four Generations in the Same Hall": as long as the family has three months' worth of grain storage, Master Qi can feel at ease; But in the end, it turned out that three months' rations were simply not enough to cope with a disaster at the national level.
In fact, the days of the Chinese people living a full meal are not long, and under the guidance of the people's idea of taking food as the sky, storing as much grain as possible is certainly not a bad thing.
In 2023, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council will attach great importance to grain production, and all regions and departments will strictly implement the responsibility of cultivated land protection and food security, continue to increase support for grain production, and effectively overcome the impact of unfavorable factors such as the rare "bad rain" in Huanghuai, severe floods in North and Northeast China, and local drought in Northwest China, and the annual grain output will hit a record high.
Whether the food is self-produced or imported, we should also cherish it, refuse to waste, and thrift is a virtue, a quality, and a responsibility.
The grain output and quality in 2024 will affect the future market circulation and supply and demand pattern, and it is believed that the mainland's agricultural science and technology can make the grain output more abundant.