Amid the continuous confrontation between China and the Philippines at Ren'ai Jiao, the Shandong aircraft carrier strike group appeared in the northwest of Luzon Island in the Philippines, attracting the attention of Western media. According to the Observer, images taken by commercial satellites show that the Shandong appeared in the northwest sea about 360 kilometers away from the Philippines. AFP believes that "it is likely to remind the Philippine side not to covet territory that does not belong to it and not to trespass into Ren'ai Jiao again." Some analysts also believe that the Shandong patrol may also be in response to the US-led "Rim of the Pacific" exercise, which kicked off on June 27. What should we think about this? Let's talk about three topics.
First, it is probably not an accident that a Chinese aircraft carrier blocked the northern gate of the Philippines.
Because just recently, not only did the Philippines escalate its provocations at Second Thomas Shoal, such as sending naval personnel to participate in "supply" activities, but even carried high-powered guns, which was obviously escalating the situation. Moreover, after the friction between China and the Philippines at Second Thomas Shoal, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Philippine Foreign Minister Manalo falsely claimed that China's actions "undermine regional peace and stability." He also brought out the "U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty," calling it a "steely commitment" by the United States to Philippine security.
Later, U.S. State Department spokesman Miller also said that China had "grave disregard" for the safety of Filipino personnel and international law, and that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to "armed attacks" anywhere in the South China Sea, including this incident. Originally, the situation of injuries on the Philippine side was in line with what Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos said - "if there are casualties among Philippine personnel in the South China Sea, the US military will be invited to intervene", and it is possible to activate the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty", but after careful consideration, the Philippine side still does not have the confidence to do so, so it said that "the conflict with China is just a misunderstanding".
However, the US side has repeatedly made security commitments after the incident, which seems to remind the Philippines to "be more emboldened, just go with China, and have our support behind it." Against this background, the Philippines immediately became "tough" again, and its tone changed completely.
Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro threatened that "this is not a misunderstanding or an accident" and that we have not downplayed the incident, which is an aggressive "illegal use of force." Teodoro also claimed that although the Chinese coast guard vessels "deliberately disrupted" the Philippine mission, the Philippines will continue to carry out "resupply" missions to Ren'ai Jiao, and the Philippines will not announce the schedule of "resupply" missions in the future, and will not and does not need to ask for anyone's consent or permission. In other words, on the issue of the supply of beached ships at Ren'ai Jiao, the Philippine side has completely ignored the "gentlemen's agreement" reached between the two sides.
Against this backdrop, China has already had two 055 ships enter the South China Sea for exercises, one of which has approached Palawan Island in the southern Philippines. A week later, the Shandong aircraft carrier strike group appeared again in the northwest of the Philippines, one south and one north, showing a trend of "flanking attack." In the current context, if there is no intention of deterring the Philippines at all, I am afraid it is unlikely. Moreover, the Shandong ship is very particular about being 360 kilometers away from the Philippines, not only going on the high seas, there will be no dispute, but also including the Philippines in the effective strike range of the carrier-based aircraft J-15.
In particular, it should be reminded that the medium-range missiles previously deployed by the United States in the Philippines are also in the northern part of Luzon. The Shandong's move can be said to be "killing two birds with one stone", which not only knocked the Philippines down, but also sternly warned the United States not to cause trouble in the South China Sea, otherwise it will set itself on fire.
Second, is the US military's test launch of an anti-ship missile in the Philippine Sea in response to China?
On June 27, the US-led "RIMPAC Exercise" just kicked off, with a total of 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 army units, more than 150 aircraft, and more than 25,000 soldiers from 29 countries participating. Some US media also hyped that in this year's "Rim of the Pacific Military Exercise", the participating countries will also "sink" the decommissioned 40,000-ton "Tarawa" amphibious assault ship, saying that this is a "deterrent signal" sent by the United States and its allies to China.
However, the US side has just finished hype, and I am afraid that it did not expect that China was not intimidated, and not only did the aircraft carrier appear around the Philippines immediately, but also the possibility of leaving the western Pacific, which also made the US side very unhappy, believing that China's move was meant to "respond to the RIMPAC military exercise". A day later, the U.S. Marine Corps announced in a press release that the U.S. military had successfully test-fired a new anti-ship missile and sunk a target ship during exercises in the Philippine Sea.
"The JAGM test-fired is a precision-guided munition designed to deal with high-value stationary, moving, and relocatable land and sea targets," the U.S. military press release said. During conflicts, such missiles can be used to defend critical maritime terrain against a variety of targets, from armored vehicles to maritime patrol boats." The observation also found that the 31st Marine Corps Expeditionary Unit of the US Army carried out the test launch mission. And just three days ago, U.S. Marine Corps Commander Smith announced that four "littoral combat groups" would be deployed in the Asia-Pacific region in the next few years to confront China and protect the Philippines and other U.S. allies.
This also shows that it is no accident that the US military sent an expeditionary force of the Marine Corps to carry out the test launch. First, it is said that it "can strike moving sea targets", which of course includes a response to "China's aircraft carrier approaching the Philippines"; Second, the U.S. side also wants to use this move to show that the deployment of the Littoral Combat Group in the Asia-Pacific region is fully capable of "maintaining the security of the free and open Indo-Pacific region" and providing effective protection to its allies.
Third, in response to the deployment of medium-range missiles by the United States in the Philippines, Putin issued the latest order.
What is interesting is that Russia has also recently made clear its position on the deployment of medium-range missiles by the United States in the Philippines. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that a few years ago, the Trump administration withdrew from the "Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty" signed by the United States and Russia under a fabricated pretext and announced the start of production and deployment of relevant missile systems. What we know today is that the United States not only produces, but not so long ago deployed medium-range missiles in the Philippines. Recently, it has concocted the same method, wanting to deploy medium-range missiles to Denmark in Europe to threaten Russia.
In response, Putin directly issued the latest order, emphasizing that "Russia needs to respond to this, start producing strike systems, and according to the actual situation, decide on targeted deployment sites" to offset the threat posed by the United States' deployment of medium-range missiles around the world.
Previously, after the United States deployed intermediate-range missiles on the Philippine island of Luzon, Chinese drones appeared near the area for several days, apparently to measure and confirm the relevant coordinates, because the United States and the Philippines dare to threaten the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the southeast coast of China with such a move, then it should become the target of Chinese missiles. The appearance of aircraft carriers before, or as Putin said - 10,000 words of condemnation, is not as good as a bomber to shake its wings once.