After the United States called for a ceasefire and was ready to help Israel resolve the hostage issue, Israeli forces began to dwindle in Gaza. However, Israel, which has always hoped to "take Gaza" into its pocket, is not reconciled, and if it does not attack Gaza, it is to take care of the face of the United States, so it is always okay to fight Lebanon, right? Allah has been exchanging fire with Israeli forces on the border, and Israel can also launch a "self-defense" operation against Lebanon. In fact, when Israeli Defense Minister Gallant visited the United States, he had already said to the outside world that "the Israeli army can send Lebanon back to the Stone Age," which is almost a declaration of war.
Against this background, Iran simply could not stand it anymore and issued a stern warning to Israel at the United Nations. On June 28, Iran's mission to the United Nations warned that a "devastating war" would ensue if Israel launched a "full-scale military operation" against Allah Lebanon, the Observer reported. What do you think about this? Let's talk about three topics.
First, is it possible for Iran to enter the war directly?
In the name of "self-defense," in addition to fighting Hamas in Gaza, Israel is also fighting the Houthis in Yemen with the US-British coalition forces, and at the same time, it is constantly going deep into Syria to fight against the anti-Israeli forces, and is already waging war with three countries. Previously, Israel's wanton bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria had already led to a round of attacks on the homeland between Iran and Israel. If Israel goes to war with Lebanon again, it cannot be ruled out that Iran will also enter the war.
On the one hand, these opponents that Israel is attacking are members of the Iranian-led "Arc of Resistance", and Iran understands that even if it endures, Israel will inevitably fight itself once it has cleared its allies. Because Israel has this demand, and the United States also has this demand, Iran simply cannot hide from it. On the other hand, Israel's attack on Iran's allies is also putting pressure on Russia on behalf of the United States, because Russia also has its own interests in the Middle East, and cooperation with Iran is a very crucial step.
Against this background, not only Iran will not be able to endure it, but Russia will probably not be able to endure it either, and although it will not directly enter the war, it is conceivable that it will provide support. Therefore, Iran does not say casually that "a devastating war is coming".
Second, China and the United States have sent a clear signal.
The United States has actually taken action to prove Israel's attack on Lebanon, and just recently, the Pentagon announced that it would send US warships to Lebanon to assemble and prepare to evacuate Chinese nationals from Lebanon. We know that the evacuation of American nationals generally does not bode well and means that war is not far off. Moreover, the United States has also publicly shouted to Allah, hoping that they will compromise with Israel, saying "do not think that we can stop Israel from attacking Lebanon."
If the actions of the US side are not credible, the signals sent by China are not compelled to be considered. Recently, the Chinese Embassy in Lebanon has issued a safety reminder, hoping that Chinese citizens will increase their security awareness and be cautious about their trips to Lebanon.
Third, Biden may use war to redeem the election disadvantage?
Data shows that since the outbreak of the conflict in October last year, the United States has shipped at least 14,000 2,000-pound MK-84 bombs, 6,500 500-pound bombs, 3,000 "Hellfire" precision-guided air-to-surface missiles, 1,000 bunker bombs, 2,600 small-diameter bombs and other munitions to Israel. This also shows that the United States fully supports Israel's war, and even if it strikes Lebanon, the United States will probably not change its attitude.
I have to say that US President Biden, who is running for re-election, has a bad election, and after the first debate held recently, he is even further behind Trump.