(Report producer/author: Guohai Securities, Wang Ning, Zhang Wanshu)
First, the new carriers of low-altitude economy are unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and eVTOL, and the policy attention is high
Definition: The low-altitude domain is dominated by uncontrolled airspace below the true altitude of 3000 meters
In terms of altitude, the definition of low-altitude airspace is generally based on two documents, which are as follows: 1) In 2010, the State Council and the Central Military Commission issued the "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of Low-altitude Airspace Management in the Mainland", which proposed that the vertical range of low-altitude airspace should be 1000 meters above true height; 2) In 2016, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the General Aviation Industry", which proposed to "timely summarize and promote the pilot experience of low-altitude airspace reform, and realize the seamless connection between the monitoring airspace and the reporting airspace below the true altitude of 3000 meters", marking the expansion of the low-altitude airspace to below the true altitude of 3000 meters.
In terms of control rules, the "National Airspace Basic Classification Method" issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China in 2023 divides airspace into seven categories: A, B, C, D, E, G, and W, of which categories A-E are controlled airspace, which provides air traffic control services for all flights; In unregulated airspace, Category G only provides flight information services, and W is suitable for micro, light, and small unmanned aerial vehicles, and no information declaration is required. At present, the actual use of low-altitude areas is dominated by unregulated airspace.
Policy: The low-altitude economy continues to meet favorable policies, and unmanned and manned aircraft are managed separately
Low-altitude aircraft are mainly based on the legal system of civil aviation. Low-altitude aircraft mainly belong to the category of civil aviation, according to the legal hierarchy, the first need to obey regulatory laws such as the Civil Aviation Law of the People's Republic of China, the second need to obey the civil aviation administrative regulations such as the People's Republic of China Civil Aircraft Airworthiness Management Regulations, the People's Republic of China Civil Aviation Safety and Security Regulations, etc., the third need to obey the civil aviation regulations (CCAR system, China Civil Aviation Regulations). The fourth layer of normative documents is the implementation measures or specific management procedures of civil aviation regulations issued by various functional departments, including: management procedures (AP), consultation notices (AC), management documents (MD), etc.
Civil aviation administrative regulations and rules are generally based on the classification of manned and unmanned, and the issuance of the CCAR-92 department represents that the operation of UAVs has officially entered the stage of having laws to follow. In June 2023, the State Council and the Central Military Commission announced the implementation of the Interim Regulations on the Flight Management of Unmanned Aircraft, which is the first administrative regulation specifically formulated for the field of unmanned aircraft. In January 2024, the Civil Aviation Administration of China announced the implementation of the "Civil Unmanned Aircraft Operation Safety Management Rules" (CCAR-92), clarifying the requirements for controllers, registration, airworthiness management and other requirements for the operation of civil unmanned managers, including consumer drones, industrial drones and unmanned eVTOLs, and the airworthiness certification is subject to the "Civil Aviation Products and Parts Qualification Certification Regulations" (CCAR-21) subordinate law "Civil Unmanned Aircraft System Airworthiness Certification Management Procedures" （AP-21-71）。 The rest of the manned aircraft are still managed in accordance with the General Civil Aviation Regulations, including the CCAR-21 Subordinate Law "Type Qualification Approval Procedure" (AP-21-11) and the "Production Approval and Supervision Procedure" (AP-21-31). In March 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Innovation and Application of General Aviation Equipment (2024-2030)", focusing on five aspects: technological innovation, supply chain competitiveness, application fields, basic support systems, and integration of industrial ecology, to clarify the specific tasks of improving equipment supply capacity and industrial innovation ability, and comprehensively promote the development of general aviation aircraft.
2. eVTOL is facing an inflection point in development and is expected to enter the stage of commercial operation
Development background: eVTOL is the technology intersection of the three major fields of automotive, aviation, and new energy
The eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) technology is migrated from the traditional aircraft and new energy supply chain, and the technical foundation is mature. The main features that distinguish it from conventional aircraft are: 1) it can achieve vertical take-off and landing, no need to taxi, and can get rid of dependence on airports; 2) The use of distributed propulsion power system improves the safety level; 3) Adopt electric technology to reduce costs. In 2016, Uber released a white paper on urban air mobility, proposing the concept of future urban air mobility, which led to the demand for eVTOL, which triggered a worldwide boom in the development of eVTOL aircraft. Mainland companies started a little late except EHang, but the advantages of the new energy vehicle industry chain have reserved a large number of potential suppliers for eVTOL, providing opportunities for the mainland aviation industry to overtake in corners.
Technical route: The eVTOL configuration is migrated from the derivatives of fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters
In the early days, there were two main configurations: fixed-wing and helicopter, which had the characteristics of long range, fast speed and heavy load, but required perfect airports and runways for take-off and landing; The helicopter has the characteristics of vertical take-off and landing and hovering, which can save space and cost, but due to the complex aerodynamic characteristics (the relative airflow of the rotor blades is asymmetrical in the forward flight working environment, the forward propellers will be affected by compression, and the rear propellers will be limited by the airflow diversion), and the maximum flight speed is bottlenecked. Based on the advantages and disadvantages of these two configurations, three kinds of aircraft are derived: 1) the tiltrotor realizes the conversion of the aircraft from hovering in the air to high-speed forward flight through the tilt transition technology of the rotor, which can have the advantages of both helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft, but due to the complex aerodynamic interference of the clock in the tilting transition process, the safety and stability performance are poor; 2) In order to avoid the tilting process, the composite airfoil directly installs the rotor assembly on the fixed-wing aircraft, which is simple in structure and highly feasible, but it also means that there is a set of power systems in a redundant state in the process of take-off and landing/forward flight, and there is a dead weight problem, which reduces the endurance time to a certain extent; 3) The multi-rotor replaces a single large-diameter rotor and tail rotor of the helicopter with multiple small-diameter rotors, which simplifies the mechanical structure of the helicopter, reduces the control difficulty and makes the operation more flexible; However, due to the need for high frequency to adjust the speed of each rotor through the IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit) to achieve stable flight, it can only achieve complete high-frequency adjustment on low-load units, and later became the main configuration of UAVs.
The existing eVTOL products mainly have three configurations: multi-rotor, composite wing and tiltrotor, and the technology is migrated from multi-rotor UAV, composite wing UAV & aircraft, and tiltrotor aircraft respectively.
Validation requirements: The official operation of eVTOLs requires the passage of airworthiness approval and operation management processes
As a civil aircraft, obtaining airworthiness approval and operation permit is a prerequisite for eVTOL to legally carry out large-scale operation. Considering that most eVTOL aircraft are still in the conceptual design stage, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has not yet made special legislation for eVTOL supervision, involving unmanned part in accordance with the relevant regulations on drone supervision, while the manned part is still in accordance with traditional civil aviation aircraft regulations. Specifically, the validation procedure for unmanned eVTOLs refers to the Regulations on the Qualification Certification of Civil Aviation Products and Parts (CCAR-21) and its subordinate law, the Administrative Procedures for the Airworthiness Certification of Civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (AP-21-71). Manned eVTOLs are validated as special types of aircraft in a "case-one-discussion" mode, and the procedures include the CCAR-21 Subordinate Law, the Type Qualification Validation Procedure (AP-21-11), the Production Approval and Supervision Procedure (AP-21-31), etc.; The specific conditions are formulated with reference to the special conditions SC-VTOL for VTOL airworthiness certification proposed by EASA in Europe, the Airworthiness Regulations for Normal Class Aircraft (CCAR-23), the Airworthiness Regulations for Normal Class Rotorcraft Aircraft (CCAR-27), and the Rules for the Qualification of Small Aircraft Commercial Transport Operators (CCAR-135).
Manned aircraft, as well as medium-sized and large civil unmanned aerial vehicles, need to carry out airworthiness management, including design standards, production approval and airworthiness approval, and the application, method and management of corresponding type certificates (TC), production license (PC), airworthiness certificate (AC) and other documents. Models other than micro drones are required to undergo operational safety assessment, and apply for and manage certificates such as the corresponding Operational Certificate of Conformity (OC).
Status quo of the whole aircraft: EHang and Fengfei Aviation are ahead of the curve in obtaining certificates, and they have converted orders with the help of the window period
EHang EH216-S and Fengfei Aviation V2000CG took the lead in completing TC certification. EHang obtained the world's first Type Certificate (TC) in October 2023, the Airworthiness Certificate (AC) in December 2023, and the Production License (PC) in April 2024. EH216-S is a multi-rotor configuration, suitable for tourism and sightseeing scenes, the main customers are local governments, and the order reserve is more than 600 aircraft; Fengfei Aviation V2000CG obtained TC in March 2024, which is a cargo aircraft with a composite wing configuration, with a maximum take-off weight of 2 tons, suitable for logistics and transportation, emergency rescue scenarios, and an order reserve of more than 200 aircraft. The manned products of the remaining leading enterprises, such as the E20 Technology, Volant Aviation VE25-100, Wofei Changkong VE25-100, Fengfei Aviation V2000EM, have all been accepted by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, and according to our estimates, it is expected to complete the certification in 2026-2027; 2024-2026 is the window period for the development of EHang and Fengfei.
3. The large-scale implementation of eVTOL requires the construction of infrastructure + optimization of component performance
Upstream components: The energy density of batteries needs to be improved urgently, and solid-state batteries are the future development direction
The lithium battery technology of new energy vehicles still cannot meet the needs of low-flying aircraft. 1) In terms of discharge efficiency, the aircraft needs a higher energy density to provide enough power to support the flight. According to the data of Gaogong lithium battery, the energy density (energy provided by the unit weight of the battery) of ternary lithium batteries for new energy vehicles is 200Wh/kg, and the eVTOL for urban air mobility needs to reach at least 400Wh/kg; At present, the energy density of mature eVTOL batteries is only 285Wh/kg. 2) In terms of peak power duration, the aircraft needs to provide instantaneous peak power during re-takeoff and landing. 3) In terms of the number of cycles, there is a need for frequent charging and discharging in low-altitude flights, and lithium batteries will face rapid aging; A full charge-discharge cycle at a high frequency may reduce battery life. 4) In terms of safety, the aircraft battery needs to ensure reliability and stability in an emergency. 5) In terms of fast charging frequency, the flight mission conversion is relatively fast, and the aircraft needs to be able to quickly charge in a short time.
Lithium-ion battery technology faces energy density limitations, and solid-state batteries are the future direction of improvement. At present, the mainstream lithium battery is a liquid lithium-ion battery, and the theoretical energy density ceiling is 300Wh/kg. In the short term, the energy density of the system can be improved by improving the electrode material and widening the SOC range. In the medium term, the theoretical energy density of solid-state batteries exceeds 500Wh/kg, or it may become the mainstream research and development direction.
Midstream infrastructure: UAV regional information management system and flight service platform to be planned
The air traffic management system provides effective flight planning, aeronautical intelligence, aviation meteorology, warning and rescue assistance services for flight activities, and is the core software platform of the air traffic control system. According to the technical requirements, it can be divided into three categories from low to high: 1) information: operation environment information collection, traffic situation information collection, flight plan design, etc.; 2) Synergy: application for flight activities, airspace risk assessment, etc.; 3) Control: interval service, traffic management, etc.
Communication, Navigation, Surveillance (CNS) infrastructure is the peripheral hardware of the air traffic control system. Communication can realize the networking communication between the aircraft and the ground, and between the aircraft and the aircraft; Navigation can provide accurate position and time services for aircraft throughout the day; Monitoring requires real-time feedback of aircraft positioning results to achieve aircraft control.
Continental's existing CNS can only meet the management needs of high-altitude aircraft. 1) Communication: Civil aviation mainly realizes the voice communication between the control station and the pilot through the VHF radio, which cannot realize the digital control of unmanned aircraft, and the communication link bandwidth is small and the deployment cost is high, and the channel may be blocked for high-density low-altitude flight; 2) Navigation: The flight density of civil aviation is low, and the waypoint mode used in navigation cannot meet the refined requirements of low-altitude flight. At the same time, the satellite navigation system can provide accurate location services in open scenes, but the signal landing power is weak, and it is easy to be blocked at low altitude in the city. 3) Surveillance: High-altitude surveillance is mainly based on ADS-B (broadcast automatic dependent surveillance), and the ground station will obtain important flight data such as actual location, identification code, altitude, and speed according to the navigation information of the aircraft; However, its limited channel is not enough to support the low-altitude and large-capacity flight mode, and the reliability of low-altitude use will be reduced with the satellite navigation system as the signal source.
Fourth, the implementation of eVTOL in the short term depends on short-distance transportation and tourism, and in the medium term, it will enter UAM and replace private cars in the long term
Product advantages: eVTOL has obvious economic and safety advantages compared to helicopters
eVTOL v.s. helicopter: 1) Economy: The price of a twin-engine five-seat helicopter is 50 million to 70 million yuan, and the company expects the price of eVTOL to be 7 million to 8 million yuan for the E20 at the time. At the same time, due to its lightweight, modularity and electrification, the operating cost is significantly lower than that of a helicopter. 2) Safety: Helicopters only have single or double power, while eVTOL is generally multi-engine power, and any failure will not affect normal flight, with high safety redundancy and a safety factor close to that of civil aircraft.
eVTOL v.s. Taxi: 1) Efficiency: eVTOL has the advantage of being efficient and convenient within a specific range of distances. Within 50-400km, the eVTOL cruising speed has obvious advantages, and the comprehensive time is shorter than that of a car. 2) Economy: With the mass production of eVTOL products, it is expected that one-way fares will continue to decline and eventually converge with luxury cars.
According to Porsche Consulting data, civil airliners mainly cover long-distance travel needs of more than 800 kilometers, high-speed rail mainly covers medium- and long-distance travel needs of about 400-1,000 kilometers, automobiles mainly cover short-distance travel needs of about 5-200 kilometers, and helicopters and eVTOL transportation modes mainly cover short- and medium-distance travel needs of about 50-400 kilometers. For intra-city transportation within a range of 20-50 km, eVTOL will have a substitution effect on traditional transportation modes such as cars and subways due to shorter travel times. For the demand for intercity transportation of about 100-300 kilometers, eVTOL will mainly compete with intercity buses, automobiles, high-speed rail, etc.
Market space: short-haul helicopter/taxi/private car replacement for short-haul helicopter/taxi/private car in the short/medium/long term, respectively
According to the progress of industry development, we believe that eVTOL applications will look at logistics and distribution, emergency rescue and tourism in the short term, and urban air mobility in the medium term. At present, EHang EH216-S has obtained the TC certificate, which is a multi-rotor configuration, suitable for tourism and sightseeing scenarios, and its main customers are local governments, with an order reserve of more than 500 aircraft. Fengfei Aviation V2000CG is a composite wing configuration, with a maximum take-off weight of 2 tons, which is suitable for logistics transportation and emergency rescue scenarios. The manned products of the remaining leading enterprises, such as the E20 Technology, Volant Aviation VE25-100, Wofei Changkong VE25-100, and Fengfei Aviation V2000EM, have all been accepted by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, and according to our estimates, the certification is expected to be completed in 2026-2027. To sum up, in the development window period of 2024-2026, EHang is expected to open up the tourism scene, while Fengfei and other drone companies will promote the development of the air logistics and transportation market; In 2026 and beyond, with the certification of other manned eVTOLs, the "air taxi" pilot is expected to be gradually promoted, and the low-altitude economy will have greater development potential if it opens up the urban air mobility market.
Excerpts from the report:
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Selected report source: [Future Think Tank]. Future Think Tank - Official Website