Market Overview
On July 1, 2024, the performance of the three major indexes was differentiated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.92% to close at 2,994.73 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.57% to close at 8,899.17 points, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.04% to close at 1,682.69 points. Today's turnover of the two markets was 658 billion, a decrease of 45.2 billion from the previous trading day.
Disc observation
In terms of the index, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded today, approaching the 3,000-point integer mark, and the ChiNext index bottomed out and rebounded in the afternoon. The performance of the core broad-based index was differentiated, with the dividend index and CSI dividend rising by more than 2%, while the indexes such as Value Creation, Science and Technology Innovation 100, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell.
In terms of plates, rare earth permanent magnets, real estate, phosphorus chemicals, coal and other sectors were among the top gainers, while semiconductors, PCBs, Apple concepts, automation equipment and other sectors were among the top decliners. More than 3,500 stocks in the whole market rose and performed well.
In terms of industries, real estate, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors rose, while food and beverage, household appliances, power equipment and other sectors fell.
In terms of conceptual themes, sectors such as real estate, phosphorus chemicals, and urban village transformation rose, while sectors such as digital twins, automotive chips, and advanced packaging fell.
Hot Sector - Real Estate
Today, the real estate sector rose 4.7%. Huatai Securities: Sales improved significantly month-on-month in June, showing signs of recovery after the new deal. Yihan data shows that in June 2024, the monthly sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies (the company's comparable caliber) was +22.4% month-on-month and -22.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 11.8 percentage points compared with May, and the cumulative sales amount from January to June was -38.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from January to May. After the new policy (calculated according to the lag of one week in online signing, 5.24-6.27), the average daily transaction area of new houses in 54 cities/second-hand houses in 26 cities was +22%/-4% compared with the daily average in April, and +1%/+9% compared with the average daily in March. Since 517, real estate sales have shown signs of recovery. At present, the first-tier cities have implemented the 517 New Deal, highlighting the demand for "stabilizing real estate", and we believe that continuous policy implementation and optimization are expected to continue to stabilize market expectations. The Shell KMI index has fallen recently, and it is necessary to pay attention to the trading volume in the subsequent off-season. As of June 23, the KMI index of new house/second-hand house transaction volume in Shell 50 cities was 40.6/37.2, -3%/-7% week-on-week, and market confidence still needs to be further consolidated. We are optimistic about high-quality real estate companies and property management companies with abundant resources and stable operations in core cities.
(The above does not constitute a recommendation of individual stocks)
Market interpretation
Today, the market as a whole is mainly repaired, with cyclical and high-dividend sectors leading the performance under the expectation of special dividends in the interim report, and related industries leading the gains; New energy, home appliances and other overseas directions dragged down the market performance today, mainly affected by the market's pessimistic expectations for tariffs after the U.S. election debate over the weekend; In addition, the real estate sector adjusted to historical lows and rebounded quickly under the marginal change in the news surface.
In the real estate sector, the easing of the demand-side policy in May gradually reflected the effect, and the top 100 real estate companies in June achieved sales of 438.93 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3% month-on-month, which was better than that in May, a year-on-year decrease of about 16.7%, and a significant narrower decline than the previous month, and the market level has fallen by more than 20% since the early policy expectations were realized. For the future, the improvement of apparent data under the short-term policy boosts sentiment, but the stabilization of fundamentals is a long-term process, so the feedback to the market level is still dominated by low-level shocks, and reversal strategies can be used to trade.
Today's dividend sector led the day, and in the short term, the funds are expected to report that the relevant companies will pay special dividends, in addition to the main line logic of the market, after the early adjustment, there is a relatively comfortable buying point, and the funds intervene after the short-term stop, but today's intraday with the rapid adjustment of the bond market, some high-dividend stocks fell. We have mentioned many times that from the medium and long-term perspective, the pressure of asset shortage will continue, the revaluation of dividend value has not ended, and the follow-up high-dividend style is likely to continue to deduce, and the dividend sector will continue to spread. In addition to the fundamental advantages, more important is the change of market investment methods, whether it is stable growth investment, growth investment represented by technology stocks or high-dividend investment in traditional industries, the overall return is about the same, the past A-share market awareness of high dividend investment has been low, the current absolute return investment trend is rising, the market's emphasis on stable value is in a rising period, belongs to the long-term dimension of variables, the change of capital positions is still on the way.
Under the central bank's announcement on the public operation of the bond market, the equity market has picked up, and today's dividend sector has strongly driven the Shanghai Composite Index to two consecutive yangs, out of the confirmation signal of stopping the fall, but the market performance is still differentiated, technology growth and small and medium-cap stocks are still falling, and today is mainly rebounding. On the whole, the dividends began to go well, and the growth of science and technology is relatively limited, the two cities are in the bottom of the downward pattern, at the current point we maintain optimism and gradual layout of the view, the market is a cycle in the long run, and the cyclical return of valuation will eventually be effective, the recent adjustment provides enough repair space for the market to follow-up, starting from the thinking of the emotional cycle and the bull and bear conversion year, the index has recently basically completed the main decline stage of this round of adjustment, with the emergence of subsequent reversal signals, It is recommended to pay attention to the cycle and the opportunity to buy dips in the dividend sector, as well as the expected repair and fundamental reversal opportunities after the over-fall of the technology track.
(The above does not constitute a recommendation of individual stocks)
Hot information
◆【PBOC: Decided to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations for some primary dealers in open market business in the near future】Cailian News Agency on July 1, the Open Market Business Operation Office of the People's Bank of China issued the Open Market Business Announcement [2024] No. 2, in order to maintain the stable operation of the bond market, on the basis of prudent observation and evaluation of the current market situation, the People's Bank of China decided to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations for some primary dealers in open market business in the near future. (Finance Associated Press)
◆ [Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in June, the highest since June 2021] Cailian Press, July 1 -- The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2024 released today recorded 51.8, up 0.1 percentage points from May, higher than the boom and bust line for eight consecutive months, the highest since June 2021, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing production and business activities has accelerated. (Finance Associated Press)
◆ [In June, the price of new houses in China's 100 cities rose 0.15% month-on-month to 16,421 yuan / square meter] Hong Kong Wind News Agency reported that the latest "100 Cities Price Index Report" released by the China Index Research Institute showed that in June, the price of new residential buildings in 100 cities was 16,421 yuan / square meter, up 0.15% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage points narrower than the previous month, rising for 10 consecutive months, up 1.5% year-on-year, and 0.17 percentage points higher than the previous month. (Hong Kong Wind News Agency)
◆ [When the LPR reform is underway: improve the quality of quotations or adjust the anchor interest rate] Finance Associated Press, July 1, since the reform of the loan market prime rate (LPR) in 2019, LPR has become the benchmark interest rate for loan pricing of mainland commercial banks. The reform of this key interest rate may be far from over. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the 2024 Lujiazui Forum recently that he will continue to reform and improve the loan market quotation rate, and focus on improving the quality of LPR quotations in response to the problem that some quotation rates significantly deviate from the actual best customer interest rate. Looking ahead, market participants believe that the optimization direction of LPR includes the expansion of the number of quotation banks, the management of assets and liabilities of quotation banks, and the further improvement of quotation quality. The LPR itself does not necessarily need to be linked to or refer to the MLF interest rate, and may refer to the 7-day reverse repo rate, deposit interest rate, interbank certificate of deposit issuance rate, treasury bond yield, etc. in future pricing. (Shanghai Securities News)
◆【Chief Economist of CITIC Securities: The central bank may carry out treasury bond selling operations in the open market in the near future】 The People's Bank of China said that in order to maintain the stable operation of the bond market, on the basis of prudent observation and evaluation of the current market situation, it has decided to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations for some primary dealers in the open market in the near future. Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that this move means that the People's Bank of China may carry out treasury bond sales operations in the open market in the near future. At a time when the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has fallen to a record low, selling Treasury bonds is conducive to stabilizing long-term bond interest rates and guarding against interest rate risks. (SSE News)
◆ [Non-Chinese nationals among Hong Kong and Macao permanent residents can apply for Mainland Travel Permits from July 10] Cai Lian Press, July 1, the Exit and Entry Administration of the People's Republic of China issued an announcement today that in order to further facilitate personnel exchanges between the Mainland, Hong Kong and Macao, and support Hong Kong and Macao to better integrate into the overall development of the country, non-Chinese nationals among Hong Kong and Macao permanent residents will be issued with Mainland Travel Permits from July 10, 2024. (Finance Associated Press)
◆ [Ministry of Foreign Affairs: After the Astana Summit, China Will Take Over the Rotating Presidency of the SCO] At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that the upcoming Astana summit is the most important event within the framework of the SCO this year. After the Astana summit, China will take over the SCO presidency for 2024-2025. This is the first time in seven years that China has assumed the presidency. China attaches great importance to this, has launched preparatory work in an all-round way, and stands ready to work with all parties to further deepen cooperation in the political, security, economic, trade and people-to-people fields under the guidance of the Shanghai Spirit, promote the high-quality development of the SCO, and promote the building of a closer SCO community with a shared future, so as to bring more benefits to the people of the region and contribute more to lasting peace and common prosperity in the world. (CCTV News)
◆ [It is reported on the Internet that battery production in July generally declined? CATL responded: recent and third quarter scheduling growth] Finance Associated Press on July 1, today's battery sector listed companies generally fell in stock prices, the market small essay said that "the industry's July scheduling data generally declined", in this regard, CATL responded to the media that the company's business is good, the global market share has steadily increased, the overall production schedule is good, and the recent and third quarter production scheduling has shown a growth trend compared with the previous quarter. (Finance Associated Press)
◆ ["Rare Earth Management Regulations" announced that rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks collectively opened high] Finance Associated Press on July 1, Zhongke Magnetics, West Magnetic Technology, Earth Bear rose more than 10%, Chuangxing Resources, Huayang New Materials, Keheng shares, Galaxy Magnets, Longci Technology, Jinli Permanent Magnets, Zhenghai Magnets and other stocks rose more than 5%. On the news side, the "Regulations on the Administration of Rare Earths" was recently announced and will come into force on October 1, 2024. The "Regulations" stipulate that the total amount of rare earth mining and rare earth smelting and separation shall be regulated, and the dynamic management shall be optimized. (Finance Associated Press)
◆ [He Xiaopeng of Xpeng Motors: The top car companies will enter the era of AI intelligent driving ChatGPT in 2025] He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xpeng Motors, released a comparison video of Waymo and Tesla FSD on July 1. He said that FSD has made rapid progress in the past six months, and with the increasing amount of FSD data, the entire Infra is getting better and better, and he firmly believes that in 2025, FSD will definitely surpass Waymo. He Xiaopeng said that on the whole, he believes that in 2025, the top car companies will enter the era of AI intelligent driving ChatGPT, and accelerate the autonomous driving ability to completely get rid of the current rule mode, and in 2026, some scenarios will be unmanned. (Wall Street News)
◆ [The advantage of the French far-right primary election is less than expected, European stocks rise, and French bonds rebound] European stocks opened collectively higher, with the French CAC 40 index rising more than 2.5% at the beginning of the session, and the share price of BNP Paribas rising 5.8%; Germany's DAX 30 rose 1.12%, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.68%. The euro moved higher, with the euro rising as much as 0.5% against the dollar during the session. French bunds moved higher, with the yield spread on 10-year French bonds narrowing to a two-week low against German bunds. (Wall Street News)
◆ [Microsoft responds to the closure of all offline authorized stores in the Chinese market: has decided to integrate channels in the Chinese mainland market] A user on the social media platform posted that Microsoft will close all offline authorized stores in the country, and only retain the official website mall and Jingdong flagship store. Some analysts pointed out that this move is Microsoft's related move because the company is making "strategic adjustments" to Surface devices around the world, and "consumer recognition of Surface in Chinese mainland has been decreasing." (Wall Street News)
◆ [Eurozone manufacturing PMI in June final value of 45.8] Hong Kong Wind News Agency reported that the final value of the euro area manufacturing PMI in June was 45.8, expected 45.6, preliminary value of 45.6, and the final value of May was 47.3. (Hong Kong Wind News Agency)
Risk Warning
This material is only service information, not as a recommendation of individual stocks, does not constitute any substantive advice or commitment to investors, nor does it serve as any legal document. Past performance of the market or related products is not indicative of the future. Before investing in a fund, investors should carefully read the fund's "Fund Contract", "Prospectus" and "Product Key Facts Statement" and other fund legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics of the fund, and fully consider their own risk tolerance according to their own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and make rational judgment and prudent investment decisions on the basis of understanding the product situation and sales suitability opinions, and independently bear the investment risk. The market is risky and investors should be cautious.
Source: wind, iFind, SSE, SZSE, various news outlets, July 1, 2024
Source: Official media/online news