China's current defense system is "area denial", which is simply understood to rely on a large number of anti-ship missiles to keep the US Navy fleet from approaching.
However, Sidar Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal Tri-Services Institute in the United Kingdom, once put forward the idea that once a conflict breaks out between China and the United States, missiles cannot completely determine the course of the war.
Missiles of the PLA
In Kaushal's view, the direction of the war between China and the United States is actually more affected by situational awareness and the acquisition and utilization of data.
Intelligence warfare
"Acquisition and utilization of data" is well understood, and information warfare has been an important part of warfare since the beginning of human wars.
From ancient times to the present, many wonderful battles have been completed by poor information. For example, in the three major battles of the Liberation War, the PLA was able to fight so wonderfully, and those intelligence workers who were lurking in the top echelons of the national army contributed a lot.
These "underground party members" intercepted information about the deployment of the national army, the strength of the troops, and even the direction of the march, so that the PLA could quickly gain an advantage in the war.
Guo Ruhuai can be described as a nail buried in the heart of our party in the heart of the national army
But "data acquisition and utilization" is one thing, and "situational awareness" is another.
Situational awareness refers to your ability to obtain enemy military intelligence in real time.
For example, if we know the enemy's route through intelligence officers, and we know that the enemy will march north tomorrow, this is called "data acquisition."
But by the next day, the enemy had an accident. Because the food poisoning caused all the enemy troops to vomit and diarrhea, the enemy could no longer march north, and began to retreat to the south.
At this time, we can detect the enemy's retreat to the south through satellites in the sky or some other means, and change the marching plan, then this is called "situational awareness".
But if we are in the age of cold weapons, we do not have satellites in our hands that can directly watch the enemy's march from the sky, and we can only obtain information through intelligence officers.
Because the intelligence officers gave us yesterday that "the enemy will march north," today's deployment of our army's forces is directly in accordance with the premise that "the enemy will march north."
But in fact, the enemy's route of march was to the south, which led to the fact that the deployment of our troops did not play a role. And this is called "insufficient situational awareness".
From the above background, it is not difficult for us to see the importance of information warfare. Therefore, Sidar Kaushal is to some extent right in believing that information warfare has shaped the situation on the battlefield.
Concept diagram of intelligence warfare
Intelligence warfare cannot completely dictate the situation on the battlefield
However, in light of the situation facing China and the United States, it would be biased to say that information warfare will affect the situation of the Sino-US war.
The situation of "information warfare influencing the battlefield situation" mostly occurs at the tactical level, and at the strategic level, it is seldom seldom influenced by information warfare.
This is especially true when the information warfare capabilities of both sides of the war are at the same level and there is no technological generation gap.
The fact that the PLA was able to win the national army in those years was not entirely because of the victory in the information war.
Liberation
With the completion of land reform on the CCP's side and the control of northeast industry by encircling the cities from the countryside in the northeast, the defeat of the Kuomintang was already decided.
The PLA's superiority in intelligence is more to better help the PLA carry out strategic deployment, reducing the casualties of PLA soldiers.
In the current situation of confrontation between China and the United States, China has too many advantages in its hands.
Therefore, in a small-scale war, the United States may use its intelligence superiority to influence the victory of the war. But in a large-scale war, or even a full-scale war, the role of intelligence warfare will be much reduced.
Concept diagram of intelligence warfare
For example, if the United States and Japan fought a naval war during World War II, we assume that Japan crushed the United States in intelligence warfare, but so what?
Even if Japan were to win a naval battle between Japan and the United States with a 1-5 defeat every time, would Japan's productivity be one-fifth of that of the United States?
The United States crushed Japan in terms of productivity, and if Japan sank one American aircraft carrier, the United States could build another 20 aircraft carriers.
Under such a huge gap in productivity, even if Japan had a very strong superiority in information warfare, it would not be able to win the war at all.
The same applies to China and the United States today.
China's overall war potential far surpasses that of the United States, crushing the United States in terms of industrial productivity, population, and national organization and mobilization.
Conceptual map of the confrontation between China and the United States
When it comes to fighting, the United States will be like Japan during World War II, and China will be like the United States during World War II.
China has an absolute advantage
As for Sidar Kaushal's remark that "missiles do not have the same impact on the outcome of a war as intelligence warfare," this is actually biased.
First, as we said above, intelligence warfare can have a limited effect in the face of absolute superiority.
China has too many missiles in its hands, and the United States has very few means to deal with them.
In the face of Chinese missiles, neither the US naval fleet nor military facilities on the first island chain have the ability to deal with Chinese missiles.
Chinese Rocket Forces
Even if the United States can know through intelligence warfare that the Chinese Rocket Force is being mobilized, how large it is, and when the Rocket Force is ready to start waiting for information, but then what?
In the absence of the means to deal with it, it would not be able to do so even if it knew this information.
Second, the scale of the war is uncontrollable.
China and the United States are two huge countries, like two big trucks full of goods.
The likelihood of a collision with a large truck along a predetermined track route is low, but once a large truck is moving in a direction that deviates from the path, the possibility of an accident is terrifying.
Conceptual map of the confrontation between China and the United States
And when two large trucks are about to collide together, with their size, external forces cannot control the direction of travel of the two vehicles at all.
Therefore, if a war breaks out between China and the United States, no one or organization will be able to control the war situation.
If the two small countries of Palestine and Israel fight each other, there will still be persuasion outside, and if the "two big trucks" between China and the United States are to fight, it will easily turn into a full-scale war or a world war.
As we said above, China far surpasses the United States in terms of overall war potential, and the United States has no chance of winning a full-scale war.
Pla
When it really comes time for China and the United States to fight an all-out war, China may have more missiles than ordinary artillery shells produced by the United States. Under this round of missile strikes, can the United States' superiority in intelligence still influence the war?
Resources:
[1] Jintai Information, "The Role of Intelligence in War from the Decisive Battle of Midway"
[2] Global Network, "U.S. Report: China's Rocket Force Expands by More Than 30% in Three Years"