The high-intensity confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, the US-Philippine military alliance did not intimidate China, and Philippine experts began to panic? The United States verbally condemned the whole process, the Philippines considered jumping ship, is Biden going to be the biggest loser? Now that the South China Sea is in place, it's up to China to make a move.
The intensity of the confrontation between China and the Philippines has not diminished, and China has not been intimidated
In view of the current situation in the South China Sea, the confrontation between China and the Philippines has become the focus of continuous attention from the outside world. Although the Philippines suffered a big loss in the illegal transportation and replenishment activities on June 17, it still did not declare that it had abandoned the transportation and replenishment activities of Ren'ai Jiao. A number of Philippine officials, including Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., have also released harsh remarks on the matter, threatening to "do more" than protesting, which has made the outside world see the potential risk of further escalation of the conflict in the South China Sea.
But more and more people are realizing that the United States' position on the South China Sea issue is somewhat awkward compared to that of the Philippines, which is on the front line.
Lucio, a scholar at the Philippine Society for China Studies, wrote a signed article in the Asia Times on June 30 with the headline "China presses the Philippines despite support from U.S. allies."
In this article, the Filipino scholar first spoke highly of the "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise held by the United States and the Philippines in April this year, claiming that it was the "most effective, ambitious, and complex" military exercise to date, and that the move means that the Philippines has become a laboratory for new defense concepts and new weapons.
For example, after the end of the exercise, the "Typhon" system imported by the United States to the Philippines has aroused great concern from the outside world; although the specific deployment location has not been disclosed at present, the "Tomahawk" cruise missiles with a range of up to 1,600 kilometers carried by the "Tomahawk" cruise missiles have had an extremely far-reaching impact on the situation in the South China Sea, and the degree of harm is even no less than that of the previous "THAAD" incident.
According to the agreement signed between the United States and the Philippines last year, the number of bases open to the US military has been expanded from five to nine, of which three are located in the northern part of Luzon Island and one is located in the Palawan region, directly facing the Taiwan Strait theater.
However, what is surprising is that China has responded strongly to the Philippine behavior, with three research vessels appearing in disputed waters, four PLA warships tailing the joint fleet exercise of the United States, the Philippines and France, and fierce confrontations at Ren'ai Jiao, with Chinese and Philippine ships colliding with each other at high intensity.
This development has also disappointed the "expectations" of some people, who originally thought that in the context of the "shoulder-to-shoulder" exercise, China would be able to "behave appropriately" and not take "tough action" because of the presence of foreign warships, but this is obviously just a delusion. At the same time, China's defiance is tantamount to a strong statement to the outside world, the escalation of the exercises will not intimidate China, and the "transparency campaign" planned by the Philippines in the disputed waters has been declared bankrupt.
The Philippines may consider jumping ship, and the United States will become the biggest loser?
During the entire confrontation, although the United States made a firm commitment to the Philippines, saying that the US-Philippines military alliance treaty would be activated in the event of human deaths, the confrontation at this stage still reached the level of activating the treaty, and it could not be regarded as an "armed conflict".
This will allow China to further "challenge the bottom line", and the increasing number of "adverse events" will also cause allies to reduce trust in the ability of the United States to fight back, because the United States' condemnation is only lip service.
If the final development in the South China Sea does not lead to a satisfactory outcome, the Philippines may "reconsider" its relationship with the United States, which is precisely in China's interest as it wants to exclude the United States, an extraregional power, from the dispute in the South China Sea.
Obviously, the Filipino scholar is reminding the United States that if the United States is unable to give the Philippines enough support when it is "charging forward", it will leave the Philippines alone to face China.
Then, given the huge power gap between China and the Philippines, the Philippines is very likely to choose to take the initiative to jump off the "thief ship" of the United States and instead repair relations with China, although this move is not in the "national interest" sought by the Philippines in the eyes of some.
From this, we can also see from the side that under the premise that the United States is unwilling to contribute, the South China Sea issue is evolving in the direction of "tail waging dogs". The Philippines sees its conflict with China and the possibility of turning to China as a bargaining chip to blackmail the United States, but this is not in line with the "established line" set by the United States for the situation in the South China Sea.
On the one hand, coinciding with the U.S. election, the U.S. domestic politics and diplomacy are facing "semi-paralysis", but the Philippines has made the United States have the potential possibility of war with China, and the initiative to start a war is not in the hands of the United States, on the other hand, if the Philippines falls to China, then in the past few years, the United States' investment in the Philippines will all be wasted, whether it is "losing money" or "losing people", for the United States, a superpower, It's all an unbearable "slap in the face".
The South China Sea arena has been set, and it's up to China to make a move
Therefore, Lucio believes that the future development of the situation in the South China Sea will largely depend on China's attitude under the premise of a weak United States. For China, the South China Sea issue is only one part of the U.S.-China relationship, and it is not even the "most pressing issue." But even so, China is still putting pressure on the Philippines, which has the "support of strong allies", and if the "shoulder-to-shoulder" exercises between the United States and the Philippines have demonstrated the "limit" of deterrence from the US-Philippine military alliance, then there may be more "turmoil" in the South China Sea.
Obviously, under the premise that the South China Sea has been set, the Philippines is particularly nervous about China's next move, because in this round of confrontation between China and the Philippines, the outside world has gradually realized the nature of the "paper tiger" of the United States, or at least for a certain period of time, the United States does not have and is not interested in helping the Philippines to annex China's territorial waters and territories.
But in fact, there is no justification for the concerns of Philippine experts, whether it is the enforcement of the Chinese coast guard or the series of actions of the Chinese navy, the core of which is the same thing: to safeguard China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The Philippines bears full responsibility for the fact that the South China Sea issue has evolved to this point. When the Philippines has repeatedly carried out illegal transportation and replenishment of the landing ship at Ren'ai Jiao and infringed on China's interests, you are declaring "victory", but when China is about to start fighting back, you have begun to hype up the so-called "regional turmoil", and this logic can be said to be extremely shameless.