Based on the average net profit margin of the past three years, what is the net profit of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings this year?
A snowball column from the revolution in energy
In 2021 and 2022, the efficiency of the global shipping market will decline under the impact of the epidemic, and the lack of capacity will lead to the high operation of the freight index in these two years. COSCO Shipping Holdings has earned nearly 200 billion in the past two years under the background of high freight rates. This year, in the case of detours and port blockages caused by the Red Sea crisis, there is once again a large capacity gap in the international logistics supply chain, and Europe and the United States have entered the inventory replenishment cycle, and the increase in freight rates is close to that of 2021 and 2022.
Yesterday, I used the minimum increase in volume and freight rate to roughly calculate that the lower limit of the relevant revenue of COSCO Shipping Holdings is 300 billion (as shown in the figure below).
To calculate net profit in 2024 using the average net profit margin for the last three years, we first need to calculate the average net profit margin for these three years. Based on the data you provide:
Net profit margin in 2021: 26.76%
Net profit margin in 2022: 28.03%
Net profit margin in 2023: 13.6%
Some netizens said that the highest spot freight rate in 21 years is 20,000 US dollars/FEU, and this year's freight rate is not that high, so it is impossible for Haikong to net run more than 21 years this year. The 22-year long-term agreement price is high, and the freight rate is also higher, and the net profit margin of Haikong this year is not as high as that of 22 years, and the net profit is unlikely to exceed 22 years. However, there are also views that this year, the shipping companies are all online high-frequency price adjustments, freight forwarders can not earn the difference, and the shipping companies have taken the biggest cake, so even if the freight rate does not return to the high point, the net profit of the shipping company may exceed 21 and 22 years.
In 23 years, the freight rate is low, the volume of goods is also small, and the net profit margin is 13.6%, and the net profit margin this year is definitely higher than that in 23 years, which is unanimously agreed.
The net profit margin is roughly higher than '23 and slightly lower than '21 and '22.
That's easy to do, we use the lower limit of Haikong's 24-year revenue * the average net profit margin of the past three years, and we may be able to get the approximate net profit lower limit for this year.
Calculate total revenue for 2024
The non-shipping related revenue is approximately RMB7.322 billion by subtracting shipping-related revenue from total revenue.
According to the calculation results, the lower limit of total revenue in 2024 is about 320.295 billion yuan.
Calculate the average net profit margin for the last three years:
To calculate net profit in 2024 using the average net profit margin for the last three years, we first need to calculate the average net profit margin for these three years.
Net profit margin in 2021: 26.76%
Net profit margin in 2022: 28.03%
Net profit margin in 2023: 13.6%
Calculate the average net profit margin for the last three years
According to the calculations, the average net profit margin for the past three years is about 22.80%. Now, I'm going to use this average net profit margin to calculate net profit for 2024.
Calculate net profit for 2024
Net profit in 2024 = 320.295 billion yuan× 0.228 = 73.027 billion
Using the average net profit margin of 22.80% in the past three years, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings' net profit in 2024 will be about 73.027 billion yuan. This is very close to my previous optimistic reasoning value.
Use 21 years of data to find an easter egg: significantly raise the 24-year annual performance expectation of Haikong to more than 73.8 billion yuan 5.22 articles
At that time, the freight rate was not as high as it is now, and the freight rate expectation for the second half of the year and next year was not as high as it is now. If the current freight rate is maintained until the end of the year, the net profit of Haikong should exceed my optimistic expectations.
The above calculation process is quite naïve, it is the logical thinking of primary school students, and if there is any similarity, it is purely coincidental. Insiders, professionals, and accountants are welcome to shoot bricks.
At that time, the price increase notice was $6,000, and now it is above $8,000
This is the comment of the freight forwarders at that time:
$ OOIL International (00316) $ $ COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (01919) $ $ COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (SH601919) $ #集装箱 # #中国船舶 # #中远海控#
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Take a look at the crazy freight forwarder's message, and you will know who has made the money for this year's shipping price increase. In April, May and June, the sea freight rate rose by 500/1000 US dollars every two weeks, and the shipping company drove the freight forwarders crazy, and they didn't know how to quote to customers, and the average price of a single container freight for the whole year is very likely to exceed that in 2021.
The expectation in late May is that the single-box freight rate is very likely to exceed that of 2021, and now looking at it, Haikong's single-box freight revenue will double compared with 21 years.
Author: The Energy Revolution
Link: A link to a web page
Source: Snowball
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Risk Warning: The views mentioned in this article only represent personal opinions, and the subject matter involved is not recommended.
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings' annual operating data and CCFI freight index correlation comparison table 5.19 article
At the end of the year, the contract of European line container transportation soared by more than 10%, and Maersk warned: supply chain disruption lasted until the end of 24, and the chartering market was hot on 5.21
To sum up, my optimistic reasoning about Haikong 73.8 billion net profit is now officially recognized as a conservative reasoning net profit. （2024.07.01）
Author: The Energy Revolution
Link: https://xueqiu.com/7659667127/295796660
Source: Snowball
The copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for authorization for commercial reprinting, and please indicate the source for non-commercial reprinting.
Risk Warning: The views mentioned in this article only represent personal opinions, and the subject matter involved is not recommended.