In just 24 hours, Belarus has experienced two days of ice and fire, with an unprecedented grand parade on the one hand, and big troubles on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border on the other.
Recently, Belarus held a rehearsal for the Independence Day military parade in the center of its capital, Minsk, which attracted a lot of attention. In particular, the Chinese People's Liberation Army's honor guard celebrant team was invited to participate in the rehearsal, which consisted of 54 members.
Impressively, the local Chinese students at the scene shouted "Long live China" with emotion, and then the honor guard responded in fluent Russian: "Long live the friendship between China and Belarus".
It is reported that the detachment is currently undergoing acclimatization training in Minsk and plans to take part in a military parade on July 3 to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Belarus. It is worth mentioning that since 2018 and 2019, China and Belarus have had several PLA honor guards to participate in military parades in Belarus, and these interactions show the deep friendship between the two countries.
However, before the PLA mission was completed and left Belarus, the Ukrainian army approached the border and launched an unprecedented provocation against Belarus.
According to reports, the Ukrainian army has recently assembled in the border area, and the First Deputy Minister of Defense of Belarus and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Muraveyko described the current situation and said that although the situation is changing daily, the development trend is not optimistic.
He further revealed that the activities of the special forces of the Ukrainian army have increased, drone reconnaissance and border violations have occurred frequently, and the Ukrainian side has also laid minefields and built fortifications near the border, which constitute a serious threat to the Belarusian side.
In addition, Western forces also seem to be trying to drag Belarus into the quagmire of war, as evidenced by the deployment of US infantry fighting vehicles, multiple rocket launchers, and heavy long-range artillery.
In the face of this situation, the commander of the Belarusian special operations forces and the head of the anti-aircraft missile forces expressed serious concern for the security of the territory and stressed that Belarus will take all necessary means to defend the country's territory and sovereignty.
At the same time, the Russian media noted that Ukraine and Poland may be planning military action against Belarus and even intentionally targeting Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
It is worth noting that the Ukrainian army has also deployed 10 "tactical battalions" on the Belarusian border, of which a large number of weapons and equipment originate from the United States, which shows the tension of the situation.
Against this background, Belarus immediately issued a "warning of nuclear war".
The statement of the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus and First Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Muraveyko that non-strategic nuclear weapons will be used if the sovereignty and independence of Belarus are threatened has raised deep concerns in the international community about a possible escalation of tensions in the region.
Muraveyko's words send a strong signal that Belarus is not a "paper tiger", but a force with the ability to strike back, which is clearly strengthened in close cooperation with Russia.
Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus at Minsk's request. Russia is undoubtedly strengthening Belarus's military deterrence capability by providing the Iskander tactical missile system and re-equipping aircraft carrying nuclear weapons, as well as training personnel to operate these high-end weapons.
However, the possibility of introducing nuclear weapons brings new complexities to the entire region. While the existence of such weapons may be a deterrent to potential aggression from a strategic point of view, it also increases the risk of miscalculation and the potentially devastating consequences of a conflict erupting.
On the Ukrainian side, attempts to open a new battlefield in the Zhytomyr region west of Kyiv may be motivated by strategic considerations to distract Russian troops on the front line in eastern Ukraine, adopting the so-called strategy of "encircling Wei to save Zhao".
While this strategy is feasible, it also has to pay attention to the potential risks, especially given the tactical nuclear weapons already deployed in Belarus and the close alliance between Russia and Belarus.
To sum up, Belarus's clear "warning of nuclear war" when its sovereignty and independence are threatened means that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is likely to escalate to a terrible height, and as the situation develops, the international community should continue to pay attention and actively look for ways to ease tensions through diplomatic means.
Next, it will also depend on how NATO will react, betting on whether Belarus will dare to use nuclear weapons, and betting on how many rounds the Ukrainian army can last?