The US dollar, the hegemon of global finance, is facing unprecedented challenges. From the Saudi-U.S. petrodollar deal to economic shifts around the world, every turn is reshaping the world economy. Now, as other currencies such as the yuan and the ruble begin to enter the ranks of paying for oil, the dominance of the dollar no longer seems to be indestructible. Some analysts have pointed out that the dominance of the dollar may peak in the next 15 years. How did all this develop step by step?
The event passed
In 1974, Saudi Arabia signed an epoch-making agreement with the United States, from which countries that buy oil in Saudi Arabia must pay in dollars. This is not just a simple trade deal, but establishes the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency and the currency of international trade. As a result, the United States was able to use its monetary advantage to maintain global economic and military leadership.
However, over time, the world economic landscape began to change. In the United States, the country's global influence has been challenged by the slow economic recovery since the 2008 financial crisis, coupled with ongoing political divisions and social problems.
At the same time, other countries such as China and Russia began to rise. Not only is China approaching the United States in terms of economic size year by year, but its political and economic influence around the world is also growing significantly. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its active role in the BRICS organization have led more and more countries to settle international trade in the renminbi and gradually reduce their dependence on the US dollar.
In the 21st century, the global energy market has also begun to change. Although Saudi Arabia is still one of the world's largest oil exporters, the continued decline in its oil production and the increase in the cost of extraction have led the kingdom to consider diversifying its economic structure. In addition, the increasing demand for renewable energy worldwide, especially in China, where the rapid development of electric vehicles and other green energy technologies is gradually changing the pattern of energy consumption.
These changes have a direct threat to the dollar. To make matters worse, the internationalization of the renminbi has accelerated significantly as Vietnam and Thailand have applied to join the BRICS, and many countries have signed currency swap agreements with China. This not only poses a challenge to the dollar's international standing, but also reflects the eastward shift of global economic power.
In order to maintain the dominant position of its currency, the United States has adopted a strategy of raising and cutting interest rates several times, trying to influence the economies of other countries by manipulating monetary policy. This strategy may be effective in the short term, but in the long run, it can lead to international discontent and backlash. For example, in the face of successive currency depreciations, Japan had to use its huge foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the market, which temporarily stabilized the yen, but also put the Japanese economy under tremendous pressure.
In addition, some of the actions of the United States in international politics have also caused widespread controversy. For example, the United States' attitude towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as its interference in the internal affairs of other countries, has tarnished its image and influence in the international arena.
All of these factors combine to create a multiple challenge to the dollar and its global hegemony. The transition from the hegemony of a single currency to a pluralistic monetary system is not only an economic and financial change, but also a reflection of a change in the global power structure. As countries intensify their quest for economic autonomy, the dollar's position will be increasingly tested.
In this big discussion about the status of the US dollar, the reactions of netizens are also diverse and varied. Their comments not only reflect the public's interest in this global economic development, but also reflect a variety of opinions and predictions. Let's see what they all have to say:
Aunt Zhang:
"I really didn't expect that the US dollar has always been the main force of our external payments, and now I hear that it may be squeezed out of power by the yuan and other currencies, which feels a bit unreal. However, change is the norm, see how you adapt. ”
Li Gong:
"As a business person who travels a lot, I think the internationalization of the renminbi is indeed much more convenient. When I went to Southeast Asia last year, many places could directly settle the bill in RMB, and the US dollar was not the only option. ”
Aze:
"If the United States does not change its old problems of imposing sanctions and suppressing other countries, sooner or later it will be abandoned by the world. It's not just the economic issues, but also the decline in political trust in the United States. ”
Omi:
"I heard my father say that the petrodollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States in the early years really helped the United States a lot. Now that the situation has changed, energy is transitioning to new energy, and the dollar has to find a new support point. ”
Mr. Liu:
"I think the status of the dollar will not be shaken in the short term, after all, the United States is still the world's leading economic and technological leader. But in the long run, diversification is definitely a trend and we have to adapt. ”
Xiao Chen:
"It's a bit early to talk about this, it will take at least a dozen years for the dollar to collapse. However, it is important to pay attention to, after all, it is about our investment and savings strategy. ”
Aunt Wang:
"I want the currencies of all countries to be stable. The economy is not good, and we, the ordinary people, suffer the most. I hope that the big countries can stabilize and not let our lives be affected too much. ”
Through these comments, we can see all kinds of speculation and concerns about the future status of the dollar. From everyday use to international trade, from political trust to economic dependence, the dollar's impact is far-reaching. But as netizens said, the future is diversified, changes are inevitable, and the key is how to find a new balance in this wave of changes. Let's stay tuned to this topic and see how this monetary drama unfolds.